UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[parochial boy]

Could anyone with a knowledge of NI politics explain why North Antrim would favour UUP and South Down, Foyle and Belfast South would favour SDLP?

I would assume these are generally wealthier areas?

[EnglishPete]

I don't think a hung parliament is particularly likely. From everything I've read, seen and heard about the details of polls combined with various reports of candidates and canvassers reporting that they are not seeing the 'Corbyn surge' I think the polls are massively exaggerating growth in support for Corbyn.

The overall impression I get is that Corbyn is surging with some sections of the electorate (particularly students) and that these are, in their enthusiasm, getting greatly over represented in online polls and responders to the (few remaining) phone polls. However these will be more likely to be registered to vote in University towns or in the South, either in London or the commuter belt of the South East. Many reports that both feedback on the doorstep (and to a degree polling subsamples) are showing Labour doing far far less well in towns across the Midlands and North which had lots of Leave voters in 2016. In those places I suspect Labour will go backwards.

The big problem for Labour is that in inner London and most of the major University towns Labour already hold big majorities in most of their seats whilst in the South East commuter belt the Tories are far ahead of Labour in almost all the seats with Labour many times in third place. Pilling up extra votes in these places will gain very little extra seats. In middle sized 'leave' towns across the midlands and the North Labour are much more vulnerable to Tory advances and I expect we'll see big Tory gains in those places tomorrow.

That's my best guess, we'll see who is right tomorrow.

[ApatheticAustrian]

This was supposed to be the brexit election and it have barely been discussed..

not discussed, yeah, cause i think everyone knows, there is nothing to be won atm.

but....the brexit was THE power play of this election...look:

[IceAgeComing]

Could anyone with a knowledge of NI politics explain why North Antrim would favour UUP and South Down, Foyle and Belfast South would favour SDLP?

I would assume these are generally wealthier areas?

its all sectarian stuff as is typical in the North - Foyle is incredibly Catholic (its effectively [London]Derry city and the surrounding areas) and has voted for Nationalists or Republican candidates in every election since it was created in 1983 - in Assembly elections Sinn Fein won it in 2017 but I think that Durkan has enough of a personal vote (plus there's a section of the Protestant community who'll vote SDLP tactically) to hold it; South Down is the same thing (right down to the Shinners winning it at the Assembly elections but the SDLP being the likely favourites in the Westminster elections).

South Antrim (that's the one that I assume you mean, North Antrim is the some of your hardcore firebrand Unionism to the point where the first two parties in 2015 were the DUP and TUV) is basically the same in reverse; a strongly protestant area where the Nationalist parties have no chance to win in a FPTP election; and the thing becomes a personal battle between two Unionists - the UUP held it for most of the time before 2005 (lost it in a 2000 by-election but regained it in 2001); William McRea won it when the UUP were all but wiped out in 2005 and held it until the UUP regained it in 2015 because McRea was not at all popular locally, and I don't think anyone can be sure about 2017 until the thing declares; Kinnahan might have a personal vote this time but he's... atypical for a Unionist MP and that might turn people off.
 
Belfast South is an incredibly odd seat and one to keep an eye on in election night.  It was always a Unionist seat, before Alaisdair McDonnell surprisingly won it for the SDLP in 2005 because of a split unionist vote.  They held it safely in 2010 but in 2015 they only won it by 900 votes (McDonnell only got 24.5% of the vote, the lowest vote share by a winning candidate in any constituency in British history) in a very odd contest.  In this election its probably a SDLP/DUP/SF contest: in the Assembly elections the DUP beat the SDLP (but only got like 20% of the vote) but I think that the SDLP probably have more votes to gain than the DUP from then (the Greens got a lot then for example) but there's also the rise of Sinn Fein so they have a chance as well...  I can't see the DUP gaining it unless Sinn Fein start taking a decent number of votes from the SDLP, and I don't know if that's going to happen thing time.  Its going to be the seat in the UK where the winning candidate has the lowest share of the vote of any winning candidate and if things split right they could theoretically get below 20% which shows the farce of FPTP really...  I believe that its the more affluent of the four Belfast seats - a mixture of surburbia and the university, although it does have a section of the city centre in it - I'm not entirely familiar with the geography of Belfast though.

There's also Belfast East to keep an eye on - apparently that's going to be DUP/Alliance and the LucidTalk projections says that its going to be closer than South.  I'd be surprised if the Alliance won, but if they did it'd be a significant result for several reasons - it'd be the first time where Unionist MPs had less than half of the seats in Belfast, plus it could also mean that Unionists might have a minority of MPs in Northern Ireland for the first time ever.

[Former President tack50]

I don't think a hung parliament is particularly likely. From everything I've read, seen and heard about the details of polls combined with various reports of candidates and canvassers reporting that they are not seeing the 'Corbyn surge' I think the polls are massively exaggerating growth in support for Corbyn.

The overall impression I get is that Corbyn is surging with some sections of the electorate (particularly students) and that these are, in their enthusiasm, getting greatly over represented in online polls and responders to the (few remaining) phone polls. However these will be more likely to be registered to vote in University towns or in the South, either in London or the commuter belt of the South East. Many reports that both feedback on the doorstep (and to a degree polling subsamples) are showing Labour doing far far less well in towns across the Midlands and North which had lots of Leave voters in 2016. In those places I suspect Labour will go backwards.

The big problem for Labour is that in inner London and most of the major University towns Labour already hold big majorities in most of their seats whilst in the South East commuter belt the Tories are far ahead of Labour in almost all the seats with Labour many times in third place. Pilling up extra votes in these places will gain very little extra seats. In middle sized 'leave' towns across the midlands and the North Labour are much more vulnerable to Tory advances and I expect we'll see big Tory gains in those places tomorrow.

That's my best guess, we'll see who is right tomorrow.

Any chance of Labour winning the popular vote but the tories getting an outright majority? (or even just being the largest party) I think that has already happened before but it's a lot rarer in the UK than in the US

[EnglishPete]

I don't think a hung parliament is particularly likely. From everything I've read, seen and heard about the details of polls combined with various reports of candidates and canvassers reporting that they are not seeing the 'Corbyn surge' I think the polls are massively exaggerating growth in support for Corbyn.

The overall impression I get is that Corbyn is surging with some sections of the electorate (particularly students) and that these are, in their enthusiasm, getting greatly over represented in online polls and responders to the (few remaining) phone polls. However these will be more likely to be registered to vote in University towns or in the South, either in London or the commuter belt of the South East. Many reports that both feedback on the doorstep (and to a degree polling subsamples) are showing Labour doing far far less well in towns across the Midlands and North which had lots of Leave voters in 2016. In those places I suspect Labour will go backwards.

The big problem for Labour is that in inner London and most of the major University towns Labour already hold big majorities in most of their seats whilst in the South East commuter belt the Tories are far ahead of Labour in almost all the seats with Labour many times in third place. Pilling up extra votes in these places will gain very little extra seats. In middle sized 'leave' towns across the midlands and the North Labour are much more vulnerable to Tory advances and I expect we'll see big Tory gains in those places tomorrow.

That's my best guess, we'll see who is right tomorrow.

Any chance of Labour winning the popular vote but the tories getting an outright majority? (or even just being the largest party) I think that has already happened before but it's a lot rarer in the UK than in the US

Its theoretically possible but I think very unlikely. We'll know tomorrow.

[ChrisDR68]

Here's my guess at the election result:

Conservative majority of 75

In the popular vote I think they'll lead Labour by 11%.

Basically I'm going along with ICM and ComRes in their view that voters who are under 35 will turn out at much the same rate as 2 years ago (around 43%).

It may be a little higher than that this time but I doubt the number will reach 50%.

There's also usually a small swing back to the Tories in the few days before polling day. I expect that's happening now.

[jaichind]

Last ITV Wales poll

[Gass3268]

Last ITV Wales poll

I remember when it was looking like the Conservatives win in Wales.

[Matty]

Yikes, that's not good for con if they are losing Wales that handily

[jaichind]

Yikes, that's not good for con if they are losing Wales that handily

Could not one flip it around and say: If the CON has a ~8% lead nationally but that far behind in Wales then it most bode well for CON in places like the Midlands and Northern England ?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some wise comments from Lewis Baston; I would recommend reading the whole thread... https://twitter.com/lewis_baston/status/872469683517231104

[Shadows]

Majority of British voters agree with Corbyn's claim UK foreign policy increases risk of terrorism


An overwhelming majority of people agree with Jeremy Corbyn that British involvement in foreign wars has put the public at greater risk of terrorism, according to a new poll. The exclusive ORB survey for The Independent found 75 per cent of people believe interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya have made atrocities on UK soil more likely.

Within that, some 68 per cent of Tory voters agreed foreign wars have enhanced the risks of terrorism at home. So did 80 per cent of Labour supporters and 79 per cent of people that voted for the Liberal Democrats in 2015.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-poll-foreign-policy-terrorism-british-voters-agree-majority-latest-a7776276.html

Theresa May Vows To Tear Up Human Rights Laws To Tackle Islamist Terrorism


http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/theresa-may-terrorism-human-rights_uk_5936ec0be4b0099e7fafd14d

I am predicting Tories losing 5-10 seats overall with a +- range of 20-25 seats here n there. Labour to get 20 more seats (& cross 36/37% with SNP, Lib-Dems, etc losing seats !)

[IceAgeComing]

Some wise comments from Lewis Baston; I would recommend reading the whole thread... https://twitter.com/lewis_baston/status/872469683517231104

But David Cameron went to Twickenham once and the Tories gained it; therefore the Tories are going to win a majority of 231

[EnglishPete]

Although if there was a hung parliament the Unionists probably would need to be... convinced to vote for a government budget regardless of who is in government.  At times the unionists have supported Labour governments, for a price naturally.

Theresa May is someone who has spoken often of her support for the Union of the UK's four home nations. She is said to see Joe Chamberlain as a personal hero of hers.

Jeremy Corbyn is a long time Sinn Fein sympathiser.

I don't see any way the DUP and UUP are going to go against the links they have with the Conservatives to put Corbyn in number 10.

[Shadows]

New Poll - Survey Monkey (Sun)
Sample Size - 11,000
Last poll of same agency was on 31st March
Current dates - 4-6th June (after attacks)

Con - 42% (-2)
Lab - 38% (0)
Lib-Dem - 6% (0)
UKIP - 4% (0)
SNP - 3%
Greens - 2%
Others - 5%

[jaichind]

CON +1
LIB   -1

[EnglishPete]

Although if there was a hung parliament the Unionists probably would need to be... convinced to vote for a government budget regardless of who is in government.  At times the unionists have supported Labour governments, for a price naturally.

Theresa May is someone who has spoken often of her support for the Union of the UK's four home nations. She is said to see Joe Chamberlain as a personal hero of hers.

Jeremy Corbyn is a long time Sinn Fein sympathiser.

I don't see any way the DUP and UUP are going to go against the links they have with the Conservatives to put Corbyn in number 10.

For those that don't know Joe Chamberlain was the former radical Liberal who became a founder and the leader of the Liberal Unionists. In 1885 a minority Liberal government was formed with support from the Irish Parliamentary Party (IPP). The IPP's price for support was a Home Rule for Ireland bill. This was something that most Liberal MPs supported but a significant minority, including many on the aristocratic Whig wing of the party but also a number of radicals like Chamberlain were however strongly opposed.

There was a split, the Liberal Unionist Party was founded and formed an electoral pact with the Conservatives. The liberal government fell, there was a fresh election in 1886 and the Tory/LU pact then ruled for 17 of the next 20 years.

The Liberal Unionists and Conservatives in Ireland merged in 1891 to form the Irish Unionist Alliance. The parties in Great Britain merged in 1912 to form the Conservative and Unionist Party.

The Ulster Unionist Party is the successor party of the Irish Unionist Alliance.

The SDLP is the successor party of the Irish Parliamentary Party.

Theresa May is the leader of what is still called the Conservative and Unionist Party.

[Tender Branson]

The age gap is huuuuge:

Olds and retired people vote Torie by 20-30 point margins, young people under 30 vote Labour by a 20 point margin.

The good thing for the Tories is that old people are much more motivated to vote, with 80-90% saying they will definitely vote, compared to only 65% of young people ...

[ChrisDR68]

Stephen Bush of the New Statesman who I think is usually pretty astute is predicting a Labour defeat:



Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband in vote share, but will end up with fewer seats

My strong expectation from travelling the country and talking to campaigners is that Jeremy Corbyn will beat Ed Miliband’s vote share in 2015 and may even match Tony Blair’s in 2005. But I also think that these extra voters are insufficiently distributed thanks to first past the post, and that the party will lose significant numbers of seats.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/06/jeremy-corbyns-surge-labours-poll-boost-real

[rob in cal]

  I've got a decision to make.  Should I work my dinner shift tomorrow night or take the night off and watch the coverage of the election (my dinner shift would coincide with a lot of the results coming in). If its close and dramatic I'd rather have the night off, if not would rather work.  At this point I'm leaning toward working.

[Tender Branson]

 I've got a decision to make.  Should I work my dinner shift tomorrow night or take the night off and watch the coverage of the election (my dinner shift would coincide with a lot of the results coming in). If its close and dramatic I'd rather have the night off, if not would rather work.  At this point I'm leaning toward working.

Better work ...

The big picture will only be available during the morning anyway. If you work, just watch the exit poll when polls close and the rest when you come home.

[rob in cal]

  But on the west coast of the US, my shift starts at about midnight British time, so it does coincide with a lot of early decisions.  Still, I'm feeling more and more confident that we will see some type of Tory majority seat victory, so nothing too dramatic.

[Reluctant Republican]

Sorry for the off track question, but do any of our American posters know if C-Span plans to cover the election? It generally does but I see nothing for it on its schedule.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This was supposed to be the brexit election and it have barely been discussed..

not discussed, yeah, cause i think everyone knows, there is nothing to be won atm.

but....the brexit was THE power play of this election...look:

Fascinating that there doesn't seem to be any correlation. Talk about a cross-cutting cleavage.