UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[jaichind]

New ComRes poll

CON 44 (-3)
LAB 34 (-1)
LIB  9 (+1)
UKIP 5 (+1)
Greens 2 (+1)

[Silent Hunter]

Think we are waiting for YouGov still.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

So, based on the polls, we're looking at a Hung parliament or small Tory majority up to a Tory majority of 80+? But most likely a modest Tory majority

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Think we are waiting for YouGov still.

Final survation polls comes out in 10 minutes

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

So, based on the polls, we're looking at a Hung parliament or small Tory majority up to a Tory majority of 80+? But most likely a modest Tory majority

A Tory +4 win is likely still a Tory majority, given the way Corbyn's votes are dispersed. A hung parliament seems very unlikely.

[Silent Hunter]

So, based on the polls, we're looking at a Hung parliament or small Tory majority up to a Tory majority of 80+? But most likely a modest Tory majority

A Tory +4 win is likely still a Tory majority, given the way Corbyn's votes are dispersed. A hung parliament seems very unlikely.

Precisely; Labour have to flip 30 seats from the Tories just to eliminate May's "Ulster Firewall" and make a SNP coalition possible.

[MaxQue]

Although if there was a hung parliament the Unionists probably would need to be... convinced to vote for a government budget regardless of who is in government.  At times the unionists have supported Labour governments, for a price naturally.

Theresa May is someone who has spoken often of her support for the Union of the UK's four home nations. She is said to see Joe Chamberlain as a personal hero of hers.

Jeremy Corbyn is a long time Sinn Fein sympathiser.

I don't see any way the DUP and UUP are going to go against the links they have with the Conservatives to put Corbyn in number 10.

Oh, sure, they won't put Corbyn into 10, but on other votes, they might drag their feet if they don't get some money for NI.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

(for exact changes from last poll):
Westminster voting intention:

CON: 42% (-)
LAB: 35% (-3)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
GRN: 2% (-)

(via @YouGov)

[Silent Hunter]

And Labour will end this campaign without a single poll lead.

[Antonio the Sixth]

And Labour will end this campaign without a single poll lead.

Did anyone expect otherwise?

[Beet]

Tories are pulling away post terrorism. Do you think terrorists try to influence elections? There seems to be an uptick in violent events right before elections. I noticed it in France and last year in the US also.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Tories are pulling away post terrorism.

Huh what? I've seen all sorts of movements in either direction (and none at all).

[Phony Moderate]

Tories are pulling away post terrorism.

Huh what? I've seen all sorts of movements in either direction (and none at all).

In terms of today's polls, Lab up by 5 in one, Lab down by 3 in another, Tories down by 3 in another.

[Phony Moderate]

And Labour will end this campaign without a single poll lead.

Rumours about an upcoming Survation poll suggest otherwise, but we'll see.

[YPestis25]

When will the exit poll be released US Eastern Time?

[Silent Hunter]

When will the exit poll be released US Eastern Time?

5pm.

[DL]

At 5pm EST - they chime big ben and then do the exit poll announcement

[Antonio the Sixth]

But I'm sure that after tomorrow, when the Tories predictably win a majority of 50 or so, people will start rewriting history and act like Labour was about to win in a landslide until the attack happened and people suddenly shifted back.

[Angel of Death]

I wouldn't easily rule out polls where Labour are doing (relatively) well, because, if anything, pollsters have the tendency to overcompensate for the direction in which were wrong last time (their underestimation of the Tories in 2015). Of course, one can also take this to the next level and third guess oneself, and so forth.

[Beet]

But I'm sure that after tomorrow, when the Tories predictably win a majority of 50 or so, people will start rewriting history and act like Labour was about to win in a landslide until the attack happened and people suddenly shifted back.

Labour was surging in every poll and now they're dropping in some. YouGov they dropped 3. Not to mention Corbyn's been knocked totally off message since he wanted to talk economic policy.

[DavidB.]

I wouldn't easily rule out polls where Labour are doing (relatively) well, because, if anything, pollsters have the tendency to overcompensate for the direction in which were wrong last time (their underestimation of the Tories in 2015).

I have the idea that this is exactly what YouGov did in their last poll, given that they have shown a much smaller gap in other polls over the last weeks...

[Antonio the Sixth]

But I'm sure that after tomorrow, when the Tories predictably win a majority of 50 or so, people will start rewriting history and act like Labour was about to win in a landslide until the attack happened and people suddenly shifted back.

Labour was surging in every poll and now they're dropping in some. YouGov they dropped 3. Not to mention Corbyn's been knocked totally off message since he wanted to talk economic policy.

NO THEY WEREN'T, the polls haven't shown any clear movement since the past two weeks at least.

[Silent Hunter]

Relatively well for Labour in this election will be gaining seats overall...

[ApatheticAustrian]

At 5pm EST - they chime big ben and then do the exit poll announcement

this too

i can't bear the takes anyway, one extremist wins against another.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

At 5pm EST - they chime big ben and then do the exit poll announcement

this too

i can't bear the takes anyway, one extremist wins against another.

23.5 more hours to go!