UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Pericles]

Blair and his ilk inflicted decades of damage on Labour. Corbyn hasn't had adequate time to rebuild, especially with ongoing corporate sabotage.

Oh yes the guy who won 3 elections in a landslide destroyed Labour whole the leader who is 20 points behind is trying to rebuild it.

[Figueira]

My prediction:

Conservatives 400
Labour 12
Lib Dems 32
SNP 19
UKIP 43
Greens (combined England/Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland) 129
Plaid Cymru 8
Mebyon Kernow 7

I will post a serious prediction later

[Barnes]

Would it be possible to move the predictions to another thread and possibly douse water on the useless Corbyn flame war going on?

[Hydera]

Blair and his ilk inflicted decades of damage on Labour. Corbyn hasn't had adequate time to rebuild, especially with ongoing corporate sabotage.

The scary thing is that people actually believe this.

The Labour party has moved on from Tony Blair, the country has moved on from Tony Blair. Get over f'cking Tony Blair, he isn't relevant any more.

The reason ex-Labour voters are now voting for the neoliberal, austerity, Brexit Tory party is not becuase of Tony Blair. It is because of Corbyn's ridiculous brand of dogmatic, anti-imperialist "leftism".

It is because Corbyn's utter incompetence and inability to lead his party.

It is because Corbyn has failed to sell any sort of message to the British people.

It is because Corbyn can't find anything to say about the issues that actually matter to people.

It is because he has at no point looked like a remotely credible leader.

But never mind, if he gets crushed, it will because of a man who stepped down 10 years ago; and we will see the Labour party dwindle into irrelevance, like the Liberals did in the 1930s.

With that, Corbyn will have single handedly destroyed any hope of a real left wing case ever being made and ever being given the chance to govern. Hisis incompetence is discrediting all left wing policies in the eyes of the British public; and making left wingers look incompetent, out of touch, irrelevant and clueless

This is Labour's major problem,
Lack of leadership and Credibility

and it been dragged down to local and nationwide elections.

Also image, a lot of people thought that a person with a history of being in the Left of labour and having that "image" would re-attract those labour voters who went to UKIP, SNP, and greens.  Thing is that those scottish labour voters who voted labour only to keep the tories out pre-2015 are sticking with the SNP. Even if corbyn is more left-wing they dont have the competatance that SNP has after they have been governing scotland for a decade.

Plus some amount of middle class labour voters are deciding that their going to vote libdems and some even tory just because they dislike labour under corbyn.


Also those Labor->UKIP voters arent coming back unless labour changes it stance on immigration. Which corbyn is definitely not.

[Barnes]

Jeremy Corbyn rejects "progressive alliance" with SNP

Of course, most of this speculation is completely useless, but I wouldn't expect any statement from Labour to prevent the Tories from pulling the same lines from their 2015 playbook.

[Barnes]

Also, it's been confirmed that the by-election in Manchester Gorton willl be cancelled by having the House vote to rescind the writ.

[mgop]

it's funny to see how everybody on this forum pretends to be leftist, but attacking true left winger corbyn and defending war criminal blair who is anything but left, and started more wars than any conservative or labour prime minister.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I love how the left is blaming Blair for their problems despite the fact that he is the only Labour prime minster to serve for two full terms and is the only labour leader to win an election since 1974

[Pericles]

I love how the left is blaming Blair for their problems despite the fact that he is the only Labour prime minster to serve for two full terms and is the only labour leader to win an election since 1974

Indeed, if Labour had stuck with Blairite ideology, they likely would have won in 2015.

[EnglishPete]

it's funny to see how everybody on this forum pretends to be leftist, but attacking true left winger corbyn and defending war criminal blair who is anything but left, and started more wars than any conservative or labour prime minister.

Corbyn isn't against violence. He was actively defending and making excuses for the IRA in the eighties when they were murdering people. He's made excuses for other terrorist groups. He also defends dictatorships if they happen to be left wing. He spoke at a 'Friends of Cuba' metting in London just a few months ago. He has close links with many far left political activists in revolutionary communist and trotskyist groups. He attends and speaks at the same political rallies as they do and uses the same style of rhetoric as they use.

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck then its probably a duck. Jeremy Corbyn is a communist in all but name. As such he has no problem with violence aimed at the west or at what he  sees as the right. He's just against violence when it comes from the west and is directed at the enemies of the west.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Stop turning this thread into a sewer the lot of you.

[Hydera]

it's funny to see how everybody on this forum pretends to be leftist, but attacking true left winger corbyn and defending war criminal blair who is anything but left, and started more wars than any conservative or labour prime minister.

Corbyn isn't against violence. He was actively defending and making excuses for the IRA in the eighties when they were murdering people. He's made excuses for other terrorist groups. He also defends dictatorships if they happen to be left wing. He spoke at a 'Friends of Cuba' metting in London just a few months ago. He has close links with many far left political activists in revolutionary communist and trotskyist groups. He attends and speaks at the same political rallies as they do and uses the same style of rhetoric as they use.

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck then its probably a duck. Jeremy Corbyn is a communist in all but name. As such he has no problem with violence aimed at the west or at what he  sees as the right. He's just against violence when it comes from the west and is directed at the enemies of the west.

Also wants Northern ireland style deal to share sovereignty of Falklands with Argentina. Except for some ultra leftists even very few labour supporters are in favor of such a position. 

[adma]

In the event of continued Corbyn collapse, what's the likelihood of serious Plaid gains in Wales?

[MAINEiac4434]

Also there's this photo:

[brucejoel99]

I'm just starting to believe that there's some prophecy known only to the high-ups that there shall be a Labour leadership contest every successive summer (beginning w/ 2015, of course) & that, every year, the events that facilitate said contests must be more consequential than the last

[Phony Moderate]

I love how the left is blaming Blair for their problems despite the fact that he is the only Labour prime minster to serve for two full terms and is the only labour leader to win an election since 1974

Indeed, if Labour had stuck with Blairite ideology, they likely would have won in 2015.

No, they would have voted for the Blairite who was already in power at that time. Blairism is more of an image based thing as opposed to a real ideology anyway.

Anyway, Farron's dubious social views are, as I predicted, being given attention.

[Barnes]

Stop turning this thread into a sewer the lot of you.

Hear hear!

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Just gonna try and defuse this flame war with some noob questions - is it likely that Scotland goes even more monolithically SNP (if that's possible)? I'm guessing Labor is gonna keep falling anyway but shouldn't that be kind of worrying?

[Tintrlvr]

Just gonna try and defuse this flame war with some noob questions - is it likely that Scotland goes even more monolithically SNP (if that's possible)? I'm guessing Labor is gonna keep falling anyway but shouldn't that be kind of worrying?

There are only three Westminster seats in Scotland that the SNP does not currently hold, one each held by Labour, the Lib Dems and the Tories. Most likely result is probably that the SNP picks up the Labour seat but loses a seat or two, or on a bad night for the SNP/good night for the Tories, three or four (but almost certainly no more than four), to the Tories. It's also possible that the Lib Dems gain a seat or two back from the SNP in the Highlands or Edinburgh, depending on candidates and how well the Lib Dems do in the campaign generally. If the SNP really bungle the campaign, the Tories and Lib Dems (but probably not Labour) may have an opening to win more seats from the SNP, but I can't really see that happening. I would say it is extremely unlikely that the SNP picks up either seat held by the Tories/Lib Dems.

This is basically backed up by current polling in Scotland, which shows the Tories consolidating the Unionist vote considerably, Labour in the doldrums and the SNP more or less flat since last election. (Polls are actually showing the SNP down, but with the Scottish Greens equivalently up, and the Scottish Green and SNP votes overlap heavily. Most people who say they will vote Green in Scotland now will ultimately vote SNP tactically if their seat is remotely marginal, and in many cases even if it is not.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there any way we can ban Americans from posting in this thread unless they pass an IQ test or something?

[Intell]

Are coal miners in the UK labour conservative or liberal democrats

They are solid tory voters of course, and burn effigies of a former labour PM.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Are coal miners in the UK labour conservative or liberal democrats

Lol

[OSR stands with Israel]

Are coal miners in the UK labour conservative or liberal democrats

They are solid tory voters of course, and burn effigies of a former labour PM.

didnt coal miners dislike Reagan here too , and despite that they became solidly gop in the 2000s.

[Intell]

Are coal miners in the UK labour conservative or liberal democrats

They are solid tory voters of course, and burn effigies of a former labour PM.

didnt coal miners dislike Reagan here too , and despite that they became solidly gop in the 2000s.

In the US, coal country varied between places.

Coal Country in Indiana went from lean democrat, to lean republican after 2000'

Coal Country in Western KY switched in 2000'

Coal Country in Western PA flipped in 2008

Coal Country WV switched in 08', same with Coal country, eastern KY

Coal Country OH switched in 12'

Coal Country in southern IL, largely flipped in 04'

Coal Country in Eastern PA, remained solidly democratic, atleast the coal mining parts, until 2016.

[Intell]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvN804dEKWI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=InfxZI4jZaQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1LnB0arj1iY


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DI9KlIJfXQU


http://ogilvyprlondon.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Coalfields-v-labour.jpg

Solid tory voters.