UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Phony Moderate]

As someone who doesn't really understand UK politics, could someone explain to me why Corbyn has been floundering so badly since he got elected?

Because he's a nutter.

We'd be doing better if he did project that image. He's unpopular because he just doesn't come off as a leader.

[Phony Moderate]

PanelBase (4/28-5/2)

CON: 47% (-2)
LAB: 30% (+3)
LDEM: 10% (NC)
UKIP: 5% (NC)
GRN: 2% (-1)

Labour gains but is still miles behind Tories who are comfortably ahead of Blair's 1997 popular vote results. It will be interesting to see how the Diane Abbott gaffe effects the polling.

It will affect the polling in the same way that BigotGate, the Prescott Punch etc did. That is to say that Labour's numbers won't crash but that it may have stalled any momentum we may have gained recently. Although a lot of people actually approved of the Prescott Punch so maybe that shouldn't be included.

[parochial boy]

I would've favoured a Norway or Switzerland status, im not opposed to EU migration it been for the most part good, but i dont think that will happen, as the government are trying to appeal to UKIP voters.

What part of a Swiss or Norwegian style deal would you say is preferable to full membership exactly?

The EU has been pretty transparent about the conditions for any deal; as you say, it is certain elements of the Conervative party and UKIP who are creating the confusion, as they seem to believe the EU should bend over backwards to give the UK what it wants.

There are pretty obvious reasons for the EU and EU member states to not give the UK the kind of deal that Brits seem to think they deserve.

[jaichind]

Tony Blair says he is returning to politics.  What does this mean? Will he try to capture the leadership of the LAB party after a diasterous election result and Corbyn pushed out?  I assume this not possible with him not being a MP.  If so will he, assuming the LABs get hammered in the election, form SDP Mark II and try to form an alliance with LIBs?

[Boston Bread]

Tony Blair says he is returning to politics.  What does this mean? Will he try to capture the leadership of the LAB party after a diasterous election result and Corbyn pushed out?  I assume this not possible with him not being a MP.  If so will he, assuming the LABs get hammered in the election, form SDP Mark II and try to form an alliance with LIBs?

My guess is Blair will go into anti-Brexit activism rather than party politics.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Tony Blair says he is returning to politics.  What does this mean? Will he try to capture the leadership of the LAB party after a diasterous election result and Corbyn pushed out?  I assume this not possible with him not being a MP.  If so will he, assuming the LABs get hammered in the election, form SDP Mark II and try to form an alliance with LIBs?

My guess is Blair will go into anti-Brexit activism rather than party politics.

That will only make things worse for Labour. Blair will turn off already-disenfranchised Lab voters and squash whatever momentum Corbyn was carrying recently.

[Phony Moderate]

Tony Blair says he is returning to politics.  What does this mean? Will he try to capture the leadership of the LAB party after a diasterous election result and Corbyn pushed out?  I assume this not possible with him not being a MP.  If so will he, assuming the LABs get hammered in the election, form SDP Mark II and try to form an alliance with LIBs?

Even if we get a 1931-style result next month he'd be lucky to beat Kendall's percentage in a leadership election.

[Barnes]

In case anyone missed it, Parliament was automatically dissolved at a minute past midnight today.

[Phony Moderate]

So, things are heating up:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39787353

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So, things are heating up:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39787353

She's not wrong. Without the UK, momentum could build up for other exits and the Euro could cripple. Of course they are doing all they can to make sure May doesn't triumph in June.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Without the UK, momentum could build up for other exits and the Euro could cripple.

the biggest chances for other exits always have been the netherlands and france and those threats seem to have passed.

depending on the final result, i could even argue atm, the UK leaving has - together with trump -reminded the other member states to come together even more.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, things are heating up:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39787353

She's not wrong. Without the UK, momentum could build up for other exits and the Euro could cripple. Of course they are doing all they can to make sure May doesn't triumph in June.

Your posts in this thread really do prove the truth of that old adage about to remain silent and being thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt don't they?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, things are heating up:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39787353

It's just bizarre sub-Stanley Baldwin rubbish. Of course that style worked for him often enough.

[ApatheticAustrian]

miss may, who called the snap election - besides some other reasons like obliterating the opposition - to become a north-korean-like mandate for her brussels negotiations and is practically running against the EU....is blaming the EU for meddling in this election or wishing for brexit failure?

i am not sure, if this combination of dadaisme, tautologies and cynisme is even legal in most states.

[YL]

Well, it's increasingly clear that all sensible people in this country who want a decent relationship with our neighbours should swallow any concerns they have about Jeremy Corbyn and, if they live in a Lab/Con battleground constituency, vote Labour on 8 June.  (And if they live in a LibDem/Con battleground, they should vote Lib Dem, and if they live in an SNP/Con battleground, they should vote SNP.  Even if they hate the idea of Scottish independence.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Have to say that I'm deeply uncomfortable - and not just because I worry it might be effective - at May's use of the trappings of State for an election address. This is very much Not Done.

[Barnes]

Have to say that I'm deeply uncomfortable - and not just because I worry it might be effective - at May's use of the trappings of State for an election address. This is very much Not Done.

One does wonder what Sir Humphrey would say!

[Phony Moderate]

Well, it's the kind of thing that a certain orange-faced buffoon regularly comes out with. You know, the one that May invited for a State visit just days after he took office.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So, things are heating up:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39787353

It's just bizarre sub-Stanley Baldwin rubbish. Of course that style worked for him often enough.

What sorts of things did Baldwin do?

[Blair]

Was it you Al (or did I read in in the New Statesmen) that she's like Baldwin in that she could go from being a very popular PM who wins a big election mandate (Baldwin in '35) and then 4/5 years later is considered a national failure, who was being heckled in the street...

Also the idea that 'Brussels' want Theresa May to lose is laughable; because even if Jeremy Corbyn was  devout europhile (spoiler his voting record is much more anti-EU than May) he'd be a pain for the EU to deal with.

[thumb21]

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 48% (+2)
LAB: 24% (-)
LDEM: 11% (-)
UKIP: 7% (-1)
(TNS_UK / 27 Apr - 02 May)

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 48% (+4)
LAB: 29% (-2)
LDEM: 10% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-1)
(YouGov / 02 - 03 May)

Looks like that Labour "surge" didn't last long. The Diane Abbot gaffe is related I suppose.

[Clyde1998]

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 48% (+2)
LAB: 24% (-)
LDEM: 11% (-)
UKIP: 7% (-1)
(TNS_UK / 27 Apr - 02 May)

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 48% (+4)
LAB: 29% (-2)
LDEM: 10% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-1)
(YouGov / 02 - 03 May)

Looks like that Labour "surge" didn't last long. The Diane Abbot gaffe is related I suppose.

Labour are doing better than they were when the election was called. I think that the previous couple of polls have been getting to YouGov's new standing position, with polls now going to fluctuate around the margin of error.

[adma]

Because he's a nutter.

We'd be doing better if he did project that image.

cf John Diefenbaker in Canada c1957-8

[Silent Hunter]

Labour are doing better than they were when the election was called. I think that the previous couple of polls have been getting to YouGov's new standing position, with polls now going to fluctuate around the margin of error.

But still very much on a hiding to nothing.

[Blair]

The irony is that we're finding that when people work out Corbyn won't win they're more likely to vote Labour; the message in our marginal london seats is 'May is going to win, vote for Wes or Neil, because they'll kick up a fuss, rather than just vote for the government''.

Labour have had a good campaign; but I really can't see how they're getting 29%. With such low ratings for Corbyn on both leadership and Economic competence, combined with what we saw in Copeland, and the entire malaise around Labour it seems too high.

Worth noting that if the tories do get 45-47% Labour could still lose up to 70-80 seats