UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But if 1983 and 1987 in which local and national election were held right after another are any guide most likely the CON vote will be several percentages above 38%

They weren't held during the campaign period but before a GE was even called.

[Clyde1998]

But if 1983 and 1987 in which local and national election were held right after another are any guide most likely the CON vote will be several percentages above 38%

They weren't held during the campaign period but before a GE was even called.

You couldn't get away with calling an election for a months time now.

[Hnv1]

Some movement of remainers headed by Blair, Gina Miller, and others is rumoured to kick off next week, I know from a contact they rented offices in the City and journalists are coming and going.

Oh the hubris, the splintering of the remainers is going to give the Tories a three digits majority

[Blair]

BBC1 John Piennar: "Lab MPs with majorities up to 5,000 have told me they have abandoned hope of retaining their seats"

Who would that be? Let's find out:

Jack Dromey, Bimingham Erdington, +5,129
Jo Stevens, Cardiff Central, +4,981
Jon Cruddas, Dagenham and Rainham, +4,980
Ivan Lewis, Bury South, +4,922
Ruth Smeeth, Stoke-on-Trent North, +4,836
Jessica Modern, Newport East, +4,705
Sue Hayman, Wokington, +4,686
Melanie Onn, Great Grimsby, +4,540
Lindsay Hoyle, Chorley, +4,530
Geoffrey Robinson, Coventry North West, +4,509
Neil Coyle, Bermondsey and Old Southwark, +4,489
Graham Jones, Hyndburn, +4,400
David Crausby, Bolton North East, +4,377
Ian Austin, Dudley North, +4,181
Kerry McCarthy, Bristol East, +3,980
Alan Whitehead, Southampton Test, +3,810
Paul Flynn, Newport West, +3,510
Helen Goodman, Bishop Auckland, +3,508
Mark Tami, Alyn and Deeside, +3,343
Julie Cooper, Burnley, +3,244
Jim Cunningham, Coventry South, +3,188
Jenny Chapman, Darlington, +3,158
Nic Dakin, Sc**nthorpe, +3,134
Iain Wright, Hartlepool, +3,084
Jess Phillips, Birmingham Yardley, +3,002
Vernon Coaker, Gedling, +2,986
David Hanson, Delyn, +2,930
Gisela Stuart, Birmingham Edgbaston, +2,706
Clive Efford, Eltham, +2,693
Ian Murray, Edinburgh South, +2,637
Mary Creagh, Wakefield, +2,613
Gordon Marsden, Blackpool South, +2,585
Rob Flello, Stoke-on-Trent South, +2,539
Richard Burden, Birmingham Northfield, +2,509
Susan Elan Jones, Clwyd South, +2,402
Tom Blenkinsop, Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East, +2,268
Gareth Thomas, Harrow West, +2,208
Karen Buck, Westminster North, +1,977
David Winnick, Walsall North, +1,937
Madeleine Moon, Bridgend, +1,927
Natascha Engel, Derbyshire North East, +1,883
Ian Lucas, Wrexham, +1,831
Paula Sheriff, Dewsbury, +1,451
Catherine Smith, Lancaster and Fleetwood, +1,65
Peter Kyle, Hove, +1,236
Tulip Siddiq, Hampstead and Kilburn, +1,138
Joan Ryan, Enfield North, +1,086
Rob Marris, Wolverhampton South West, +801
John Woodcock, Barrow and Furness, +795
Paul Farrelly, Newcastle-under-Lyme, +650
Daniel Zeichner, Cambridge, +599
Wes Streeting, Ilford North, +589
Ruth Cadbury, Brentford and Isleworth, +465
Holly Lynch, Halifax, +428
Margaret Greenwood, Wirral West, +417
Rupa Huq, Ealing Central and Acton, +274
Albert Owen, Ynys Môn, +229
Chris Matheson, City of Chester, +93

These are the people who've already given up hope of returning to parliament.

As I've said I think that leave voting seats in the North with up to 8-10k majorities could actually fall before certain marginal seats on the list above.

I reckon that Neil Coyle+Jess Phillips+Ian Murray will be safe as they're defending against the Liberals and SNP

[jaichind]

Opinium



CON   46
LAB   30
LIB     9
UKIP   7

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Just realised that Enfield North has selected Nick de Bois again. That means the constituency has had the same match-up (Ryan Vs NdB) in every election since 2001.  The area is definitely slipping Labour wards in a trend sense - probably not enough to save Ryan this time around  (hopefully she goes away for good), but enough that it may be the Tories last hurrah.

[Clyde1998]

Opinium



CON   46
LAB   30
LIB     9
UKIP   7

Con down 1; Lib up 1 on their last poll.

[ApatheticAustrian]

labour polling would be "okayish" in germany....it is suicide in UK....

the older i get, the more i doubt majority systems are useful.

[Blair]

Again based on the locals I can't see labour getting more than 28% at a complete push

[EnglishPete]

BBC1 John Piennar: "Lab MPs with majorities up to 5,000 have told me they have abandoned hope of retaining their seats"

Who would that be? Let's find out:

Jack Dromey, Bimingham Erdington, +5,129
Jo Stevens, Cardiff Central, +4,981
Jon Cruddas, Dagenham and Rainham, +4,980
Ivan Lewis, Bury South, +4,922
Ruth Smeeth, Stoke-on-Trent North, +4,836
Jessica Modern, Newport East, +4,705
Sue Hayman, Wokington, +4,686
Melanie Onn, Great Grimsby, +4,540
Lindsay Hoyle, Chorley, +4,530
Geoffrey Robinson, Coventry North West, +4,509
Neil Coyle, Bermondsey and Old Southwark, +4,489
Graham Jones, Hyndburn, +4,400
David Crausby, Bolton North East, +4,377
Ian Austin, Dudley North, +4,181
Kerry McCarthy, Bristol East, +3,980
Alan Whitehead, Southampton Test, +3,810
Paul Flynn, Newport West, +3,510
Helen Goodman, Bishop Auckland, +3,508
Mark Tami, Alyn and Deeside, +3,343
Julie Cooper, Burnley, +3,244
Jim Cunningham, Coventry South, +3,188
Jenny Chapman, Darlington, +3,158
Nic Dakin, Sc**nthorpe, +3,134
Iain Wright, Hartlepool, +3,084
Jess Phillips, Birmingham Yardley, +3,002
Vernon Coaker, Gedling, +2,986
David Hanson, Delyn, +2,930
Gisela Stuart, Birmingham Edgbaston, +2,706
Clive Efford, Eltham, +2,693
Ian Murray, Edinburgh South, +2,637
Mary Creagh, Wakefield, +2,613
Gordon Marsden, Blackpool South, +2,585
Rob Flello, Stoke-on-Trent South, +2,539
Richard Burden, Birmingham Northfield, +2,509
Susan Elan Jones, Clwyd South, +2,402
Tom Blenkinsop, Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East, +2,268
Gareth Thomas, Harrow West, +2,208
Karen Buck, Westminster North, +1,977
David Winnick, Walsall North, +1,937
Madeleine Moon, Bridgend, +1,927
Natascha Engel, Derbyshire North East, +1,883
Ian Lucas, Wrexham, +1,831
Paula Sheriff, Dewsbury, +1,451
Catherine Smith, Lancaster and Fleetwood, +1,65
Peter Kyle, Hove, +1,236
Tulip Siddiq, Hampstead and Kilburn, +1,138
Joan Ryan, Enfield North, +1,086
Rob Marris, Wolverhampton South West, +801
John Woodcock, Barrow and Furness, +795
Paul Farrelly, Newcastle-under-Lyme, +650
Daniel Zeichner, Cambridge, +599
Wes Streeting, Ilford North, +589
Ruth Cadbury, Brentford and Isleworth, +465
Holly Lynch, Halifax, +428
Margaret Greenwood, Wirral West, +417
Rupa Huq, Ealing Central and Acton, +274
Albert Owen, Ynys Môn, +229
Chris Matheson, City of Chester, +93

These are the people who've already given up hope of returning to parliament.

As I've said I think that leave voting seats in the North with up to 8-10k majorities could actually fall before certain marginal seats on the list above.

I reckon that Neil Coyle+Jess Phillips+Ian Murray will be safe as they're defending against the Liberals and SNP

One list of Labour seats that will be quite vulnerable is the list of Labour held seats where the combined Conservative and UKIP vote in 2015 was greater than the winning Labour vote.

Given the way that, in local elections, the Conservatives have absorbed most of the UKIP vote as well as some of the Labour vote all these seats have to be seen as at risk for Labour. Indeed one of them, Copeland, already went to the Tories in a by election. UKIP vote may hold up in Hartlepool which will be a top target for them but I expect it will collapse everywhere else and the Tories will win most of these seats.


Alyn and Deeside
Ashfield
Barrow in Furness
Batley and Spen
Birmingham Edgbaston
Birmingham Erdington
Birmingham Northfield
Bishop Auckland
Blackpool South
Bolton North East
Bradford South
Brentford and Isleworth
Bridgend
Bristol East
Bristol South
Bury South
Chester, City of
Chorley
Clwyd South
Copeland
Coventry North West
Coventry South
Dagenham and Rainham
Darlington
Delyn
Derbyshire North East
Dewsbury
Don Valley
Dudley North
Ealing Central and Acton
Eltham
Enfield North
Gedling
Great Grimsby
Halifax
Hampstead and Kilburn
Hartlepool
Heywood and Middleton
Hove
Hyndburn
Ilford North
Lancaster and Fleetwood
Mansfield
Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Newport East
Newport West
Oldham East and Saddleworth
Penistone and Stocksbridge
Rother Valley
Sc**nthorpe
Southampton Test
Stalybridge and Hyde
Stoke-on-Trent Central
Stoke-on-Trent North
Stoke-on-Trent South
Wakefield
Walsall North
Walsall South
West Bromwich West
Wirral West
Wolverhampton North East
Wolverhampton South West
Workington
Worsley and Eccles South
Wrexham

[Associate Justice PiT]

BBC1 John Piennar: "Lab MPs with majorities up to 5,000 have told me they have abandoned hope of retaining their seats"

Who would that be? Let's find out:

Jack Dromey, Bimingham Erdington, +5,129
Jo Stevens, Cardiff Central, +4,981
Jon Cruddas, Dagenham and Rainham, +4,980
Ivan Lewis, Bury South, +4,922
Ruth Smeeth, Stoke-on-Trent North, +4,836
Jessica Modern, Newport East, +4,705
Sue Hayman, Wokington, +4,686
Melanie Onn, Great Grimsby, +4,540
Lindsay Hoyle, Chorley, +4,530
Geoffrey Robinson, Coventry North West, +4,509
Neil Coyle, Bermondsey and Old Southwark, +4,489
Graham Jones, Hyndburn, +4,400
David Crausby, Bolton North East, +4,377
Ian Austin, Dudley North, +4,181
Kerry McCarthy, Bristol East, +3,980
Alan Whitehead, Southampton Test, +3,810
Paul Flynn, Newport West, +3,510
Helen Goodman, Bishop Auckland, +3,508
Mark Tami, Alyn and Deeside, +3,343
Julie Cooper, Burnley, +3,244
Jim Cunningham, Coventry South, +3,188
Jenny Chapman, Darlington, +3,158
Nic Dakin, Sc**nthorpe, +3,134
Iain Wright, Hartlepool, +3,084
Jess Phillips, Birmingham Yardley, +3,002
Vernon Coaker, Gedling, +2,986
David Hanson, Delyn, +2,930
Gisela Stuart, Birmingham Edgbaston, +2,706
Clive Efford, Eltham, +2,693
Ian Murray, Edinburgh South, +2,637
Mary Creagh, Wakefield, +2,613
Gordon Marsden, Blackpool South, +2,585
Rob Flello, Stoke-on-Trent South, +2,539
Richard Burden, Birmingham Northfield, +2,509
Susan Elan Jones, Clwyd South, +2,402
Tom Blenkinsop, Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East, +2,268
Gareth Thomas, Harrow West, +2,208
Karen Buck, Westminster North, +1,977
David Winnick, Walsall North, +1,937
Madeleine Moon, Bridgend, +1,927
Natascha Engel, Derbyshire North East, +1,883
Ian Lucas, Wrexham, +1,831
Paula Sheriff, Dewsbury, +1,451
Catherine Smith, Lancaster and Fleetwood, +1,65
Peter Kyle, Hove, +1,236
Tulip Siddiq, Hampstead and Kilburn, +1,138
Joan Ryan, Enfield North, +1,086
Rob Marris, Wolverhampton South West, +801
John Woodcock, Barrow and Furness, +795
Paul Farrelly, Newcastle-under-Lyme, +650
Daniel Zeichner, Cambridge, +599
Wes Streeting, Ilford North, +589
Ruth Cadbury, Brentford and Isleworth, +465
Holly Lynch, Halifax, +428
Margaret Greenwood, Wirral West, +417
Rupa Huq, Ealing Central and Acton, +274
Albert Owen, Ynys Môn, +229
Chris Matheson, City of Chester, +93

These are the people who've already given up hope of returning to parliament.

     As an American, I find this British tendency to categorize seats by margin of victory in absolute vote count to be a little bizarre. Wouldn't these numbers be heavily subject to turnout (i.e. a 1,000 vote margin in one seat might be much more or less safe than a 1,000 vote margin in another seat)?

[jaichind]

Telegraph poll

CON 46 (+4), LAB 31 (nc), LIB 9 (-1), UKIP 8 (nc)

[Clyde1998]

Telegraph poll

CON 46 (+4), LAB 31 (nc), LIB 9 (-1), UKIP 8 (nc)

This was conducted by ORB.

[Devout Centrist]

Westminster voting intention:
Daily Mail: CON
The Sun: CON
Telegraph: CON
The Guardian: CON !!!
Via Guardian/ICM  (May 5-6)

Quite something

Mother of God

[jaichind]

Westminster voting intention:
Daily Mail: CON
The Sun: CON
Telegraph: CON
The Guardian: CON !!!
Via Guardian/ICM  (May 5-6)

Quite something

Wow. What was The Guardian rational for this?  Is it about Corybn or is it about backing May to get a good deal for UK in Brexit talks?  I assume Daily Express will be for CON this time instead of UKIP. 

[Clyde1998]

Westminster voting intention:
Daily Mail: CON
The Sun: CON
Telegraph: CON
The Guardian: CON !!!
Via Guardian/ICM  (May 5-6)

Quite something

Wow. What was The Guardian rational for this?  Is it about Corybn or is it about backing May to get a good deal for UK in Brexit talks?  I assume Daily Express will be for CON this time instead of UKIP. 

I think it means people who read the Guardian, rather than the paper themselves.

[Phony Moderate]

Well, I suddenly feel incredibly enthusiastic about voting Labour now (even if those figures are based on BS sub-samples).

[jaichind]

Some of these polls show it is totally possible that GB LAB vote might come close to the 31% it got in 2015 even though that sort of result will mean a significant loss of seats.  It seems with victory out of reach what Corybn should consider doing is to drive up LAB turnout in non-marginal seats to try to get to around 31% for the GB LAB vote.  If he does he can make an argument to stay on as LAB leader even with a large loss of number of seats.

[MAINEiac4434]

Wow. I expected the Grauniad to back the Lib Dems, not go full Tory.

[Hnv1]

Wow. I expected the Grauniad to back the Lib Dems, not go full Tory.

This is not the guardian but rather the readership, the endorsement is in the week before the GE and I expect it to be to "your local remainer"

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Let us not overanalyse unweighted subsamples from polls especially when very small. There's enough Tier-Z level #analysis in this thread as it is.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

It seems with victory out of reach what Corybn should consider doing is to drive up LAB turnout in non-marginal seats to try to get to around 31% for the GB LAB vote.  If he does he can make an argument to stay on as LAB leader even with a large loss of number of seats.

It's Still His Turn!

[Phony Moderate]

We did that to a large extent in 2015. Hard to imagine us going much further up in Liverpool Walton, East Ham and so on. Both Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott have a lot of Green vote in their constituencies to squeeze though.

[jaichind]

Wales poll, CON still ahead



CON: 41% (+1)
LAB: 35% (+5)
PC: 11% (-2)
LIB: 7% (-1)
UKIP: 4% (-2)
Others: 2% (-1)

[jaichind]

LAB shadow chancellor John McDonnell said there was “a lot to learn” from Karl Marx's Das Kapital.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/07/john-mcdonnell-refuses-rule-60-top-tax-rate-suggests-lot-learn/