UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Pyro]

LAB shadow chancellor John McDonnell said there was “a lot to learn” from Karl Marx's Das Kapital.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/07/john-mcdonnell-refuses-rule-60-top-tax-rate-suggests-lot-learn/

FF, has my vote

[jaichind]

SNP vote
General election May 2015
Holyrood election May 2016
Local election May 2017

Not apples-to-apples since in the 2017 elections independents won 10% of first preference votes  while in 2015 and 2016 they were close to nil.

[jaichind]

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 49% (+3)
LAB: 27% (-1)
LDEM: 9% (-1)
UKIP: 6% (-2)
GRN: 3% (-1)
(ICM/Guardian 05 - 07 May)

Welsh Westminster voting intention:
CON: 41% (+1)
LAB: 35% (+5)
PC: 11% (-2)
LDEM: 7% (-1)
UKIP: 4% (-2)
(YouGov / 05 - 07 May)

From the same ICM poll.  If UKIP will only run candidates in some 100 seats and relevant only in a subset of that this seems to be a perfect storm brewing for a large vote share surge for CON.

[TheSaint250]

Wales poll, CON still ahead



CON: 41% (+1)
LAB: 35% (+5)
PC: 11% (-2)
LIB: 7% (-1)
UKIP: 4% (-2)
Others: 2% (-1)

That's pretty impressive

[Filuwaúrdjan]

From the same ICM poll.  If UKIP will only run candidates in some 100 seats and relevant only in a subset of that this seems to be a perfect storm brewing for a large vote share surge for CON.

Not sure if there will be that much of an effect because most of those crossing over to the Tories will do so whether there's a UKIP candidate or not (and, for however much this is worth, evidence from Thursday suggests that these people are disproportionately concentrated in the countryside and in areas with a lot of post-1950 housing developments). Probably all three mainstream parties get a little upwards tick as a result, probably turnout goes down (or is lower than would otherwise be) as a result. With the former happening in part because of the latter.

[Clyde1998]

[Beet]

Really terrible. What happened to Labour? Is Corbyn some kind of Conservative plant?

[catographer]

I feel like the LibDems have a huge opportunity if they position themselves as the most pro-Remain party, and be the anti/weak Brexit faction. 48% of the country voted for Remain, that's a big constituency to tap into.

[Phony Moderate]

I feel like the LibDems have a huge opportunity if they position themselves as the most pro-Remain party, and be the anti/weak Brexit faction. 48% of the country voted for Remain, that's a big constituency to tap into.

...that's exactly what they've done since June 24th...

[Beet]

At least he's getting good comments from the Guardian comments section.

[jaichind]

Survation

CON: 47% (+7)
LAB: 30% (+1)
LIB: 7% (-4)
UKIP: 5% (-6)
Green: 3% (+1)

[Phony Moderate]

Survation

CON: 47% (+7)
LAB: 30% (+1)
LIB: 7% (-4)
UKIP: 5% (-6)
Green: 3% (+1)

More following of the herd there. LOL at the Lib Dems being below their 2015 percentage though.

[ApatheticAustrian]

so, we are now at "labour won't lose votes but gets screwed by the british system"-level.

[Clyde1998]

so, we are now at "labour won't lose votes but gets screwed by the british system"-level.

Yeah. Labour are pretty much where they were in 2015, but as the Conservatives are doing much better, they'll overtake Labour in a number of seats to increase their majority. (If the percentages today come up on election day).

[DC Al Fine]

The Tory leader is outpolling Labour on the NHS

[Pyro]

On who would you trust to protect the NHS:
T. May: 42%
J. Corbyn: 39%
(Survation)

What.

[Clyde1998]

On who would you trust to promote a fairer society:
T. May: 46%
J. Corbyn: 37%
(Survation)

On who would you trust to manage the economy:
T. May: 62%
J. Corbyn: 21%
(Survation)

On who would you trust to protect the NHS:
T. May: 42%
J. Corbyn: 39%
(Survation)

On who would you trust to negotiate the best Brexit deal for Britain:
T. May: 62%
J. Corbyn: 20%
(Survation)

You can see why May doesn't want to do a TV debate...

[brucejoel99]

On who would you trust to protect the NHS:
T. May: 42%
J. Corbyn: 39%
(Survation)

What.

[MAINEiac4434]

On who would you trust to protect the NHS:
T. May: 42%
J. Corbyn: 39%
(Survation)

What.

It's almost as if Jeremy Corbyn sucks and no one thinks he can do anything right.

[ChrisDR68]

Here's the video that was shown on the Sunday Poltics showing the shadow chancellor confirming himself as a Marxist training camp 4 years ago:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lCcFjRhiaw

He did though amusingly refuse to confirm what this video confirms in his Andrew Marr interview on Sunday.

[vileplume]

so, we are now at "labour won't lose votes but gets screwed by the british system"-level.

Yeah. Labour are pretty much where they were in 2015, but as the Conservatives are doing much better, they'll overtake Labour in a number of seats to increase their majority. (If the percentages today come up on election day).

The average of polls has Labour a few points down on 2015 at around 28%.

[parochial boy]

On who would you trust to protect the NHS:
T. May: 42%
J. Corbyn: 39%
(Survation)

What.

It's almost as if Jeremy Corbyn sucks and no one thinks he can do anything right.

yeah, but given that May's actual record on the NHS basically consists of driving it straight into it's biggest crisis ever....

[jaichind]

Scottish Greens to field fewer than ten candidates

https://stv.tv/news/politics/1388040-scottish-greens-to-field-fewer-than-ten-candidates/

[vileplume]

I feel like the LibDems have a huge opportunity if they position themselves as the most pro-Remain party, and be the anti/weak Brexit faction. 48% of the country voted for Remain, that's a big constituency to tap into.

As Phoney Moderate says they've been doing that for nearly a year and it hasn't produced anything but a very mild recovery. Plus not very many of the Lib Dems target seats were emphatically remain and many had pretty strong leave votes and perhaps unsurprisingly there has been a significant movement of leave voting 2015 Lib Dem voters to the Tories. This along with the UKIP vote collapsing to the Tories makes it difficult for the Lib Dems to regain many seats.

Another thing that hurts the Lib Dems is the 'remoaner' vote (I hate the term but it is the most easily understood term) is fairly heavily concentrated on the left but the Lib Dems are nowhere in all but a small handful of Labour seats (some of which like Burnley were strongly leave anyway). Most of their targets are Tory held but most Tory remainers are 'reluctant remainers' and not passionate Europeans but any stretch of the imagination and consequently and mostly accept Brexit. Thus the Lib Dems message on Brexit doesn't work overly well with this group of voters.

Treating the 48% as a homogeneous block is a mistake. The kind of people inspired by the Lib Dems 'stop Brexit' message are 'metropolitan social democrats' who hate Corbyn, think for example Polly Toynbee. But these people are not found in much abundance in Lib Dem-Tory marginals and those that there are were probably mostly voting Lib Dem tactically anyway.

[vileplume]

On who would you trust to protect the NHS:
T. May: 42%
J. Corbyn: 39%
(Survation)

What.

It's almost as if Jeremy Corbyn sucks and no one thinks he can do anything right.

yeah, but given that May's actual record on the NHS basically consists of driving it straight into it's biggest crisis ever....

The NHS has been in trouble for years and this is not the fault of one specific person or political party. It is badly in need of reform but the NHS is the 'sacred cow' of British politics such that nobody will dare to begin to make the necessary reforms as the other side will weaponise it and  use it as a political football.