UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Vosem]

The thing is, though, those Lib Dem areas are, in many cases, areas which had extended support for the Liberals stretching back to the 19th century. Voting Liberal is really rather generational, just like paying homage to the household gods.

This is true for Orkney & Shetland and Ceredigion, but most of the other seats the Lib Dems held in 2015 weren't ancestral seats so much as strong incumbents. Tim Farron, who holds Westmorland & Lonsdale (the strongest Liberal Democrat seat in Great Britain in 2015, both in terms of margin over nearest competitor and percentage of the vote attained), gained his seat from the Conservatives in 2005, who had held the entire area covered by the seat since the election of 1924 and most of it since 1910. One of the amazing things about the 2015 defeat was how traditional Liberal heartlands, like the Scottish Highlands and rural Wales, indeed mainly abandoned them, with the exception of those two seats.

UKIP, of course, has no strong incumbents going for them. Their only winner from 2015 is stepping down.

[Silent Hunter]

And you have the Tories talking about "Pre-emptive" use of nuclear weapons & more strikes & regime change with Assad !

The historical rationale for the UK and US not adopting a no-first use policy on nuclear weapons (although IIRC, they had one on chemical ones) was because tactical nuclear weapons deployed in West Germany were a deterrent against the rather large conventional superiority of the Warsaw Pact's forces.

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov: Con 49, Labour 31, LDem 9, UKIP 3, Others ??
ComRes: Con 48, Labour 30, LDem 10, UKIP 5, SNP 4, Greens 3
Opinium: Con 47, Labour 32, LDem 8, UKIP 5, SNP 5 Greens 2
ORB: Con 46, Labour 32, LDem 8, UKIP 7, Others ??

@GoodwinMJ
"Lib Dem support is down in all 4 polls this eve & below 10% in 3, with only 25 days left. Sorry but something has gone very, very wrong."

I expect the lib dems to make gains in the south west of London, but i dont know where will they make gains elsewhere...

Too many journalists think Twitter is representative of the country as a whole, hence the shock at the Lib Dems' lack of polling surge.

[parochial boy]

Does anyone else see a certain parallel with the situation in Scotland in the aftermath of 2014 and the rUK now?

As in, the leave/Yes votes consolidating around the Tories/SNP, and the remain vote exploding between a multiple of parties, the largest of which (Labour in both cases), see confused an ineffectual.

[Shadows]

Miliband was not a strong progressive, supported intervention in Libya, turned against Corbyn, sure he wasn't Blair but he wasn't Corbyn either & he led Labour to a disastrous result !

Anyways Rubio is as hawkish as Jeb Bush & supported the Iraq War which butchered a million people. And I don't know how was decisive Hillary's victory - She was leading 60 to 2 in polls, with 100's of Millions of $, almost all the Super-Delegates, every Congressmen, Gov, Senator, Mayor with an initial media blackout of Bernie, very few debates etc - And she lost 22 states & 46% of the Pledged delegates to Sanders, a 74 year old Jewish Independent democratic Socialist.

Anyways - Corbyn is hammering the Tories among the young votes, but old dinosaurs are giving the Tories the win !

A recent mega-poll of nearly 13,000 voters by YouGov conducted found if 30 per cent more people under 25 vote, the Tories could lose the election. In 2015, 43 per cent of 18-25 year olds voted Labour, 55 per cent of those registered in the 2017 General Election intend to vote Labour and of those polled by 69 per cent said they “like” or “strongly like” Jeremy Corbyn, bucking the national trend.

http://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/official-young-people-vote-likely-tories-lose/08/05/

[Silent Hunter]

The 'old dinosaurs' remember what it was like in the 1970s.

[Shadows]

Sherlock or Midsomer Murders - I've watch both
Whisky or wine - Depends
Broadchurch or Line of Duty, she said -  Haven't watched either
Indian or Chinese takeaway - Don't buy takeaways".
Merkel or Macron - Both

Ohh Theresa !!!

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-cant-even-give-straight-10419020

THERESA May will this week gamble her credibility on cutting net migration to below 100,000 a year. Mrs May is convinced she can finally deliver where predecessor David Cameron failed once Britain leaves the EU.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3556086/theresa-may-will-vow-to-cut-net-net-migration-to-tens-of-thousands-despite-seven-years-of-failure/

[Shadows]

The 'old dinosaurs' remember what it was like in the 1970s.

I am sure they do, which is why they want to strengthen & continue the disastrous Reagan-Thatcher economy (But you know it's on borrowed time with the massive polarization of young people coming into the voting bloc & old people dying, even if some of these young people turn conservative, it's only a matter of few years !

[YL]

I expect the lib dems to make gains in the south west of London, but i dont know where will they make gains elsewhere...

Bath; if they can't win that they ought to give up and go home.  There are a handful of other possible re-gains from the Tories, and they might have a chance of taking Cambridge back from Labour.  Then there should be a chance in some Scottish seats: East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West, North East Fife.  Beyond those it's hard to be optimistic for them on current polls.

The other trouble for them on these polls is that their 2015 seats don't all look that safe.  Southport, in particular, looks vulnerable as John Pugh is standing down.  I'm sceptical about their chances of losing my own backyard but if the tactical Tories from 2015 desert them they'll need to find some new votes from somewhere...

[Blair]

Miliband was not a strong progressive, supported intervention in Libya, turned against Corbyn, sure he wasn't Blair but he wasn't Corbyn either & he led Labour to a disastrous result

How did he turn against Corbyn?

[ApatheticAustrian]

"red ed" is a shill, it is known.

[Silent Hunter]

Miliband was not a strong progressive, supported intervention in Libya, turned against Corbyn, sure he wasn't Blair but he wasn't Corbyn either & he led Labour to a disastrous result

How did he turn against Corbyn?

Voted against him in the no-confidence motion of the PLP, I guess.

[Silent Hunter]

Broadchurch or Line of Duty, she said -  Haven't watched either
Indian or Chinese takeaway - Don't buy takeaways".

Those are straight answers...

[Phony Moderate]

Emily Thornberry demolished Sir Michael Fallon earlier btw:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1JLX10Wz3A

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Another legendary Godsiff leaflet to add to your collection...

[Dereich]

Everyone's favorite analysts, The Political Compass, have released their hot UK takes.

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[vileplume]

YouGov: Con 49, Labour 31, LDem 9, UKIP 3, Others ??
ComRes: Con 48, Labour 30, LDem 10, UKIP 5, SNP 4, Greens 3
Opinium: Con 47, Labour 32, LDem 8, UKIP 5, SNP 5 Greens 2
ORB: Con 46, Labour 32, LDem 8, UKIP 7, Others ??

@GoodwinMJ
"Lib Dem support is down in all 4 polls this eve & below 10% in 3, with only 25 days left. Sorry but something has gone very, very wrong."

I expect the lib dems to make gains in the south west of London, but i dont know where will they make gains elsewhere...

I expect they'll make a few gains in Scotland vs. the SNP as in a few seats they'll be the heavy recipients of unionist tactical voting.

The only non Lib Dem held seats I would favour them in at the moment are Kingston and Surbiton, Twickenham, Bath, Cambridge, North East Fife, Edinburgh West, East Dunbartonshire. While on the other hand they could be at serious risk of losing Southport and Carshalton & Wallington to the Tories.

Richmond Park will be interesting though, the demographics are much less naturally strong for the Lib Dems than they were 20-30 years ago due it becoming insanely expensive and the pattern of by-election gains is that they usually revert to the party that lost it at the subsequent general election if that party is doing well and the Tories are obviously doing well this year. However Brexit may allow Olney to buck the general rule, we'll have to wait and see.

[DC Al Fine]

F[inks]ing Political Compass. What a farce. Let's try comparing their analyses

UK 2010


UK 2017


So Labour, has moved from being identical to a bunch of Ulster fundamentalists to being moderate centre left. Also the Tories occupy the same economic position as Ron freaking Paul

[EnglishPete]

It seems at the rate we are going UKIP's vote share in 2017 might be barely larger than 2010 even though that is more of a function of  running a lot less candidates in 2017 than 2010.

Will be interesting if the collapse is across-the-board or if UKIP can establish a LibDem-style niche, holding up their vote in a few stronghold seats (their three most obvious targets being Thurrock, Hartlepool, and Boston & Skegness).

Thurrock and Boston are already held by the Tories and I would fully expect the May surge to squeeze the UKIP vote hard in those places. They would have had some chance in Hartlepool but not only have they been a disaster in their national organisation since the referendum but they've also passed over a well liked local councillor who did well in this months local elections in Hartlepool and instead picked an absolute dumpster fire of a candidate who is already in the news for his screw ups (just as he was at the last election).

[Pericles]

Using Electoral Calculus, I made 3 separate scenarios.
Polls underestimate Labour vote
2017 UK election
Theresa May-Conservative: 357+27 44.8%
Jeremy Corbyn-Labour: 215-14 32.3%
Nicola Sturgeon-SNP: 51-3 4.4%
Tim Farron-LibDem: 6-3 10.6%
Paul Nuttal-UKIP: 0-1 4.9%
Caroline Lucas-Green: 2.3%
650 seats
326 for majority

Polls underestimate Tory vote
2017 UK election
Theresa May-Conservative: 433+103 50.0%
Jeremy Corbyn-Labour: 145-84 25.0%
Nicola Sturgeon-SNP: 41-13 4.0%
Tim Farron-LibDem: 10+1 12.0%
Paul Nuttal-UKIP: 0-1 3.7%
Caroline Lucas-Green: 0-1 3.0%
650 seats
326 for majority

Polls are right
2017 UK election
Theresa May-Conservative: 395+65 47.3%
Jeremy Corbyn-Labour: 175-54 29.2%
Nicola Sturgeon-SNP: 51-3 4.2%
Tim Farron-LibDem: 6-3 10.6%
Caroline Lucas-Green: 1_ 2.8%
Paul Nuttal-UKIP: 0-1 3.9%
650 seats
326 for majority

Note that this is nationwide, not seat by seat, so that is why Lucas loses in some scenarios, she may be doing better in her seat. Which outcome do you think is most plausible? The polls have been untrustworthy, especially UK polling(even in 2010 they were off by quite a bit, and have been wrong more often than thought in years when one party wins in a landslide by getting the scale of the landslide wrong). When the Tories were way ahead, in 1983 and 2010, they put them ahead by too much, in 1983 final polls put the Tories around 47%. In 1992 and 2015, they overestimated Labour and underestimated the turnout of more conservative demographics with Brexit. What are your thoughts?

[EnglishPete]

YouGov: Con 49, Labour 31, LDem 9, UKIP 3, Others ??
ComRes: Con 48, Labour 30, LDem 10, UKIP 5, SNP 4, Greens 3
Opinium: Con 47, Labour 32, LDem 8, UKIP 5, SNP 5 Greens 2
ORB: Con 46, Labour 32, LDem 8, UKIP 7, Others ??

@GoodwinMJ
"Lib Dem support is down in all 4 polls this eve & below 10% in 3, with only 25 days left. Sorry but something has gone very, very wrong."

I expect the lib dems to make gains in the south west of London, but i dont know where will they make gains elsewhere...

I expect they'll make a few gains in Scotland vs. the SNP as in a few seats they'll be the heavy recipients of unionist tactical voting.

The only non Lib Dem held seats I would favour them in at the moment are Kingston and Surbiton, Twickenham, Bath, Cambridge, North East Fife, Edinburgh West, East Dunbartonshire. While on the other hand they could be at serious risk of losing Southport and Carshalton & Wallington to the Tories.

Richmond Park will be interesting though, the demographics are much less naturally strong for the Lib Dems than they were 20-30 years ago due it becoming insanely expensive and the pattern of by-election gains is that they usually revert to the party that lost it at the subsequent general election if that party is doing well and the Tories are obviously doing well this year. However Brexit may allow Olney to buck the general rule, we'll have to wait and see.

Apart from Twickenham I don't see the Lib Dems gaining back any other seats from the Tories.  They may well gain seats but outside Twickenham these will all be from Labour or the SNP. Cambridge, Birmingham Yardley, Bristol West and North East Fife are all much more likely gains than any Tory seats in the South West or along the South Coast.

[EnglishPete]

Using Electoral Calculus, I made 3 separate scenarios.
Polls underestimate Labour vote
2017 UK election
Theresa May-Conservative: 357+27 44.8%
Jeremy Corbyn-Labour: 215-14 32.3%
Nicola Sturgeon-SNP: 51-3 4.4%
Tim Farron-LibDem: 6-3 10.6%
Paul Nuttal-UKIP: 0-1 4.9%
Caroline Lucas-Green: 2.3%
650 seats
326 for majority

Polls underestimate Tory vote
2017 UK election
Theresa May-Conservative: 433+103 50.0%
Jeremy Corbyn-Labour: 145-84 25.0%
Nicola Sturgeon-SNP: 41-13 4.0%
Tim Farron-LibDem: 10+1 12.0%
Paul Nuttal-UKIP: 0-1 3.7%
Caroline Lucas-Green: 0-1 3.0%
650 seats
326 for majority

Polls are right
2017 UK election
Theresa May-Conservative: 395+65 47.3%
Jeremy Corbyn-Labour: 175-54 29.2%
Nicola Sturgeon-SNP: 51-3 4.2%
Tim Farron-LibDem: 6-3 10.6%
Caroline Lucas-Green: 1_ 2.8%
Paul Nuttal-UKIP: 0-1 3.9%
650 seats
326 for majority

Note that this is nationwide, not seat by seat, so that is why Lucas loses in some scenarios, she may be doing better in her seat. Which outcome do you think is most plausible? The polls have been untrustworthy, especially UK polling(even in 2010 they were off by quite a bit, and have been wrong more often than thought in years when one party wins in a landslide by getting the scale of the landslide wrong). When the Tories were way ahead, in 1983 and 2010, they put them ahead by too much, in 1983 final polls put the Tories around 47%. In 1992 and 2015, they overestimated Labour and underestimated the turnout of more conservative demographics with Brexit. What are your thoughts?

The polling average at the moment shows the Tory surge being entirely based on picking up most of UKIP's vote with no significant decline in Labour's vote share since 2015. I rather suspect that that's wrong. Jeremy Corbyn is not personally popular with the public and Labour's constant infighting since he became leader has not passed unnoticed. Tories 50% Labour 25% sounds much more plausible to me.

[politicallefty]

I've been following this election since it was called, but this is my first post in this topic. I think it's funny how a few posters indiscriminately attacked Americans for posting here. That may be true for quite a few (mostly with blue avatars), but almost everything I said from other UK topics in this board has or is coming true.

The only thing that's really surprising me in this election is how the Labour vote is holding pretty solid at or around the 2015 number nationwide. I think it's also interesting how the seat shifts are more dependent on a drop in the Labour vote rather than a rise in the Conservative vote (so long as they don't break into the high 40s).

It seems to me like one or two things (or both) needs to happen for the Conservatives to break 400 seats. I think Labour needs to fall below 30% and/or the Conservatives need a breakthrough into Scotland. The former may or may not happen, but I haven't seen many polls of Scotland and I'm wondering if any rise in the Tory vote in Scotland may happen disproportionately outside of Edinburgh and Glasgow. (Fwiw, I don't see any hope whatsoever for Labour in Scotland.)

[adma]

The 'old dinosaurs' remember what it was like in the 1970s.

Or, on a more localized level, the 1980s (Militant Tendency et al)

[Blair]

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2017/05/believe-it-or-not-tories-are-running-energetic-election-campaign-you-just

Slightly old piece (5 days) but shows how different GE campaigns are now, due to the rise of online advertising.

In regards to Labour being at 31/32% in the polls the problem is that the locals/Copeland by-election/the low ratings of Corbyn/lack of trust over the economy basically means that it's such a hurdle to climb to just get to those number of votes