UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Klartext89]

YouGov (Apr 12-13)
Con - 44% (+7 on 2015)
Lab - 23% (-7)
Lib - 12% (+4)
UKIP - 10% (-3)
Nat - 6% (+1)
Grn - 4% (NC)

Labour still ahead among remain voters, but Tories miles ahead among leave voters.

Not sure how accurate it is, but according to this website that yields:

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/2015?CON=44&LAB=23&UKIP=10&LD=12&GRN=4

Con: 395
Lab: 164
Lib: 11
SNP: 56
Plaid: 4
Green: 1
UKIP: 0

Maggies 1983 number (397) is definitely in danger, the Tory goal is 400. I would be surprised if Labour stays above 150.

[Gary J]

If Parliament has not been dissolved by 4 May, the writ (in theory a royal command) for the by-election to be held will remain in full force. It is irrelevant how long the new MP serves before the disolution.

If Parliament is dissolved before 4 May, then the by-election will be cancelled.

BBC is just announcing that the Parliamentary vote for an early general election (requiring support from two thirds of the members), will be held tomorrow.

[Phony Moderate]

This is the first truly snap election since 1974.

[Former President tack50]

Also decided to plug in the numbers for NI just for fun on a similar calculator. Using the numbers from their 2017 regional election:

DUP 10 (+2)
Sinn Fein 5 (+1)
UUP 0 (-2)
SDLP 2 (-1)
Alliance 0

[Hnv1]

Corbyn says Labour will support the vote tomorrow. Game on

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The ancient and noble principle of 'well look some polls have us with twenty point leads'. 'pon such things the British Constitution is founded.

Anyway looked at rationally - which isn't very easy - a landslide isn't actually guaranteed, though the return of the government pretty obviously is. Corbyn should step aside, but I suspect that won't happen.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

RIP LABOUR

The Labour Party will survive. Even if it's as bad as 1931 it will survive.

[kelestian]

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/2015?CON=44&LAB=23&UKIP=10&LD=12&GRN=4

why so few seats for LibDem?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's interesting she's not waiting till after the May locals before deciding.

Yes, this is the curiosity. I was starting to think that maybe she might pull the trigger, but would do what Thatcher always used to and wait to see what the locals looked like just in case.

[Hnv1]

The ancient and noble principle of 'well look some polls have us with twenty point leads'. 'pon such things the British Constitution is founded.

Anyway looked at rationally - which isn't very easy - a landslide isn't actually guaranteed, though the return of the government pretty obviously is. Corbyn should step aside, but I suspect that won't happen.

Will this force another Labour leadership election? Is it mandatory to have leadership elections after a lost GE? Also applies for the deputy position, I suppose corbyn will want to squeeze big Tom out

[Hnv1]

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/2015?CON=44&LAB=23&UKIP=10&LD=12&GRN=4

why so few seats for LibDem?

FPTP meet kelestian, kelestian FPTP

[Phony Moderate]

The ancient and noble principle of 'well look some polls have us with twenty point leads'. 'pon such things the British Constitution is founded.

Anyway looked at rationally - which isn't very easy - a landslide isn't actually guaranteed, though the return of the government pretty obviously is. Corbyn should step aside, but I suspect that won't happen.

Will this force another Labour leadership election? Is it mandatory to have leadership elections after a lost GE? Also applies for the deputy position, I suppose corbyn will want to squeeze big Tom out

Not at all, but a major party leader hasn't stayed on for a significant length of time after a lost GE since Kinnock in 1987.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is it mandatory to have leadership elections after a lost GE?

Strangely enough no, but I suspect we'll have one.

[Clyde1998]

Using the regional data from that YouGov poll:

Con - 380 (+50)
Lab - 180 (-52)
SNP - 51 (-5)
Lib - 13 (+5)
Plaid - 4 (+1)
UKIP - 2 (+1)
Grn - 1 (N/C)
Oth - 19 (N/C)

[MAINEiac4434]

Well...I guess soon Labour will have a new leader.

[kelestian]

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/2015?CON=44&LAB=23&UKIP=10&LD=12&GRN=4

why so few seats for LibDem?

FPTP meet kelestian, kelestian FPTP

they had 57 seats in 2010, and i have heard that LibDem regain their positions after Brexit

[Hnv1]

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/2015?CON=44&LAB=23&UKIP=10&LD=12&GRN=4

why so few seats for LibDem?

FPTP meet kelestian, kelestian FPTP

they had 57 seats in 2010, and i have heard that LibDem regain their positions after Brexit

They had 23% of the vote with safe seats in Scotland and Cornwall. They are on 10% now with their rural seats practically gone (they might some back in Cornwall), I think they'll win around 20 seats come June

[Filuwaúrdjan]

An argument for a GE following May's ascent to the Premiership existed, but this moment is gone as she's already done things in Parliament. There's no case for an election now other than a purely partisan one; this is a decision taken largely out of opportunism and arrogance. Of course this is how politics works, but this is the line that other parties should take whether they vote for dissolution or not.

[Phony Moderate]

An argument for a GE following May's ascent to the Premiership existed, but this moment is gone as she's already done things in Parliament. There's no case for an election now other than a purely partisan one; this is a decision taken largely out of opportunism and arrogance. Of course this is how politics works, but this is the line that other parties should take whether they vote for dissolution or not.

Sturgeon has said something more or less to that effect.

[Klartext89]

https://twitter.com/jonkay01/status/854300093142511621

Sorry for asking, but I don't know "Brenda from Bristol" and I can't find anything about her. Who's that Lady? Why is she famous?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Suggested swings from the most recent poll of each pollster to have polled since the start of March:

ICM +5.5
YouGov +7.0
ComRes +7.0
Opinium +1.0
GfK +3.0
Ipsos MORI +3.0

[Zinneke]

Chirac 97 paralells are strong.

[Polkergeist]

Given that the Tories have pulled into a solid second place in the high 20's in Scotland.

What are the chances of the Tories winning seats of the SNP? How many?

[Shadows]

Very opportunistic of Theresa May, she gets 5 years when she wins this with Labour in disarray ! Should be a fun election, If May can't win now, she should retire from politics !

[jaichind]

Smart move by May.  She found a good excuse.  Gordon Brown should have done the same in 2007.