UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Yeah, whether you like May or not, she's one cunning nasty woman.

[jaichind]

Given that the Tories have pulled into a solid second place in the high 20's in Scotland.

What are the chances of the Tories winning seats of the SNP? How many?

This election might become a disaster for LAB in Scotland.  The might be pushed to a weak third place since all the anti-SNP tactical voting will most likely end up with CON which is for now the stronger of CON and LAB.

[jaichind]

This election seems like a good opportunity for LIB to make a comeback by pulling in the pro-EU vote.  Of course any LIB revival will make the situation for LAB even worse.

[jaichind]

I wonder if this would work toward "nationalizing" the May 4th local elections?  It would be interesting to see what the implied national vote share end up being from May 4th.

[Clyde1998]

Given that the Tories have pulled into a solid second place in the high 20's in Scotland.

What are the chances of the Tories winning seats of the SNP? How many?

Tories will win seats from the SNP if they keep around 25% - the Borders, Aberdeenshire and possibly Edinburgh, might produce Conservative MPs. Anti-SNP tactical voting will be much easier in this election than in 2015. Although, the Brexit issue may make it easier for the SNP to hold on in some seats.

That being said, once the campaign gets going, there's no certainty that result will end up being anything like the polls do now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

She found a good excuse.

Not really, but I suppose the assumption is that they barely need one.

[Babeuf]

Setting up to be the most depressing election of the year.

[Silent Hunter]

https://twitter.com/jonkay01/status/854300093142511621

Sorry for asking, but I don't know "Brenda from Bristol" and I can't find anything about her. Who's that Lady? Why is she famous?

It's a 'vox pop'. You find random members of the public and ask them about political matters. She's not famous, but she certainly will be now.

Have I Got News For You is back on Friday and I would not be surprised to see that clip in it...

[Babeuf]

Labour must unite and stop the infighting to avoid disaster. Well, disaster is almost certain anyway but staying on message would maybe avoid the worst?

Hahaha no chance of that though

[Klartext89]

https://twitter.com/jonkay01/status/854300093142511621

Sorry for asking, but I don't know "Brenda from Bristol" and I can't find anything about her. Who's that Lady? Why is she famous?

It's a 'vox pop'. You find random members of the public and ask them about political matters. She's not famous, but she certainly will be now.

Have I Got News For You is back on Friday and I would not be surprised to see that clip in it...

Thank you, I'm waiting for Gillian Duffy to give her view asap.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Best thing that could possibly happen to Labour. The sooner they get Corbyn's and his Stalinist ilk's yoke off their neck, the better.

Hopefully a lot of antisemitic MPs will lose in the tsunami.

[Polkergeist]

That being said, once the campaign gets going, there's no certainty that result will end up being anything like the polls do now.

Because of

1. The sudden nature of the election call
2. The leave/remain polarisation of the country
3. The main opposition leader has been given no chance of victory

There could be some large shifts in party support as voters try to find their most effective choice.

However I think all the action in shifting support will be on the left side. Any Tory losses from remain voters can be made up from UKIP voters or Labour leave voters.

Interested to hear from posters closer to the action.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

the Scottish Lib Dems and Labour should really form a temporary unity pact IMO.

[Hatman 🍁]

Why is Labour supporting this?

I know whenever we have these over-confident snap elections in Canada, the governing party gets turfed. See Ontario 1990 and Alberta 2015.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I know whenever we have these over-confident snap elections in Canada, the governing party gets turfed. See Ontario 1990 and Alberta 2015.

The relevant British example is February 1974. Labour was in a mess then as well. But the Leadership was more credible.

[jaichind]

Why is Labour supporting this?

I know whenever we have these over-confident snap elections in Canada, the governing party gets turfed. See Ontario 1990 and Alberta 2015.

Maybe because this is the only way to get rid of Corbyn

[Polkergeist]

Why is Labour supporting this?

I know whenever we have these over-confident snap elections in Canada, the governing party gets turfed. See Ontario 1990 and Alberta 2015.

Maybe because this is the only way to get rid of Corbyn

Why is Corbyn supporting this?

[jaichind]

Why is Labour supporting this?

I know whenever we have these over-confident snap elections in Canada, the governing party gets turfed. See Ontario 1990 and Alberta 2015.

Did not 1966 work out pretty well for LAB ?

[ObserverIE]

I know whenever we have these over-confident snap elections in Canada, the governing party gets turfed. See Ontario 1990 and Alberta 2015.

The relevant British example is February 1974. Labour was in a mess then as well. But the Leadership was more credible.

Brenda From Bristol 4 Leader ASAP

[ilikeverin]

https://twitter.com/jonkay01/status/854300093142511621

Sorry for asking, but I don't know "Brenda from Bristol" and I can't find anything about her. Who's that Lady? Why is she famous?

Ooh, delightful!  I don't think I've actually heard a rhotic English dialect before.

[Maxwell]

Looks like Michael Foot is going to be redeemed in the eyes of history.

[Hnv1]

Why is Labour supporting this?

I know whenever we have these over-confident snap elections in Canada, the governing party gets turfed. See Ontario 1990 and Alberta 2015.

Because the official opposition cannot say no to a GE, it's like admitting they're pointless

[ObserverIE]

Also decided to plug in the numbers for NI just for fun on a similar calculator. Using the numbers from their 2017 regional election:

DUP 10 (+2)
Sinn Fein 5 (+1)
UUP 0 (-2)
SDLP 2 (-1)
Alliance 0

Hermon will hold on easily in North Down, so you can move DUP down to 9 immediately. Enough Alliance, SF and Green Assembly voters will probably hold their nose to keep Alasdair McDonnell in in South Belfast, which would represent a shift of another seat from DUP to SDLP. I suspect both UUPers will be goosed - Elliott if there's an increased nationalist turnout in FST and Kinahan in South Antrim now that Boxcar Willie is no longer the DUP candidate.

The other marginals will be North Belfast - again assuming an increased nationalist vote - and possibly East Belfast.

DUP 7/9 SF 5/6 SDLP 3 Lady Sylvia 1 Alliance 0/1

Of course, it buggers up the talks on trying to get Stormont going again, but did anyone imagine that the Tory Party gave an actual f*** about that?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yeah wtf is going to happen in Northern Ireland? Purdah means that an imposition of direct rule would be out of the question, I highly doubt the parties are going to go through the motions of conciliation while they're campaigning for the general ... maybe we'll have a second Assembly election at the same time as the general election?

[bore]

I think the number of voters who believe May's proclaimed reasoning is her actual reasoning can be counted on one hand. Although I think the effect of such blatant self interest will only be to lower her popularity but not the number of votes, given the state of the opposition.