UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[bore]

Given that the Tories have pulled into a solid second place in the high 20's in Scotland.

What are the chances of the Tories winning seats of the SNP? How many?

This election might become a disaster for LAB in Scotland.  The might be pushed to a weak third place since all the anti-SNP tactical voting will most likely end up with CON which is for now the stronger of CON and LAB.

We've fallen so far recently that comparatively it wouldn't really be a disaster. If Labour can hold Edinburgh South then it will be a great night for us. What we'll judge the year on is how well we do in the council elections in May.

[MAINEiac4434]

Looks like Michael Foot is going to be redeemed in the eyes of history.

Michael Foot would've stepped down if he had lost the confidence of his party.

[ApatheticAustrian]

well, i guess elections in 2-3 years would have been painful for the tories.

hopefully the libdems overtake UKIP in fantasy minority vote country.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

well, i guess elections in 2-3 years would have been painful for the tories.

hopefully the libdems overtake UKIP in fantasy minority vote country.

lol i forgot about ukip

[Clyde1998]

Given that the Tories have pulled into a solid second place in the high 20's in Scotland.

What are the chances of the Tories winning seats of the SNP? How many?

This election might become a disaster for LAB in Scotland.  The might be pushed to a weak third place since all the anti-SNP tactical voting will most likely end up with CON which is for now the stronger of CON and LAB.

We've fallen so far recently that comparatively it wouldn't really be a disaster. If Labour can hold Edinburgh South then it will be a great night for us. What we'll judge the year on is how well we do in the council elections in May.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Edinburgh South fall to the Tories. The council elections will give a good indication of how Scotland will vote in June though.

[jaichind]

This election might become a disaster for LAB in Scotland.  The might be pushed to a weak third place since all the anti-SNP tactical voting will most likely end up with CON which is for now the stronger of CON and LAB.

We've fallen so far recently that comparatively it wouldn't really be a disaster. If Labour can hold Edinburgh South then it will be a great night for us. What we'll judge the year on is how well we do in the council elections in May.

Sure it terms of seats 2015 is near rock bottom for LAB. I was thinking for the humiliation of LAB of falling behind CON in terms of vote share by a significant margin which will be exaggerated by anti-SNP tactical voting. 

[bore]

Given that the Tories have pulled into a solid second place in the high 20's in Scotland.

What are the chances of the Tories winning seats of the SNP? How many?

This election might become a disaster for LAB in Scotland.  The might be pushed to a weak third place since all the anti-SNP tactical voting will most likely end up with CON which is for now the stronger of CON and LAB.

We've fallen so far recently that comparatively it wouldn't really be a disaster. If Labour can hold Edinburgh South then it will be a great night for us. What we'll judge the year on is how well we do in the council elections in May.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Edinburgh South fall to the Tories. The council elections will give a good indication of how Scotland will vote in June though.

At the moment I'm inclined to think that, barring an even bigger deterioration in the Labour vote nationally, we'll hold on to it. Murray is a very prominent figure locally, and is loudly anti brexit and anti independence, which lines up well with the electorate, the local labour party is one of a handful in scotland that is actually effective (I think it has over a 1000 members), the seat is worse than the corresponding holyrood seat for the tories because it also includes a lot of council estates in the south of the city (Moredun, The Inch, Gracemount etc) and the tories and the SNP will find it very hard to squeeze, in either direction, the labour vote given the result in both 2015 and 2016. It also strikes me as unlikely, in an election that will be fought on brexit, for the tories to gain a seat which was about 80% remain.

But, 3 way marginals are always unpredictable, so I could be wrong.

[bore]

This election might become a disaster for LAB in Scotland.  The might be pushed to a weak third place since all the anti-SNP tactical voting will most likely end up with CON which is for now the stronger of CON and LAB.

We've fallen so far recently that comparatively it wouldn't really be a disaster. If Labour can hold Edinburgh South then it will be a great night for us. What we'll judge the year on is how well we do in the council elections in May.

Sure it terms of seats 2015 is near rock bottom for LAB. I was thinking for the humiliation of LAB of falling behind CON in terms of vote share by a significant margin which will be exaggerated by anti-SNP tactical voting. 

I expect that to happen, yeah. Maybe the last few years have just immunised me against electoral humiliation

[MAINEiac4434]

So let us say that Theresa May wins the election on the 8th of June by how the polls are telling us she will win, would Jeremy Corbyn step down as Labour Leader in the event he loses catastrophically?

I would certainly hope so.

[henster]

Well at least Labour will finally get rid of Corbyn once and for all, who is odds favorite to become leader after he goes?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Well at least Labour will finally get rid of Corbyn once and for all, who is odds favorite to become leader after he goes?

I suppose that's like asking who will be President if a nuclear bomb hits Washington: it depends who survives.

[MAINEiac4434]

Well at least Labour will finally get rid of Corbyn once and for all, who is odds favorite to become leader after he goes?

Who the Christ knows with this membership? Hopefully someone like Keir Starmer. I quite like Tulip Siddiq and Dan Jarvis. Maybe Sadiq Khan can pull a Sturgeon and lead the party from out of parliament. Maybe Clive Lewis could appeal to the Corbynistas?

[Zanas]

I can't decide if that's terrible news for Ed Miliband or not? Probably terrible.

Anyway, isn't there still some form of brand loyalty across the country which should raise Labor's numbers a notch come election day ? I'm not saying they can win, (even if they can, anything can happen after all),) but I'm saying they might get something closer to 30-32 than to the 24-25 they're currently polling.

[Hatman 🍁]

Why is Labour supporting this?

I know whenever we have these over-confident snap elections in Canada, the governing party gets turfed. See Ontario 1990 and Alberta 2015.

Because the official opposition cannot say no to a GE, it's like admitting they're pointless

Snap elections are incredibly unpopular. The Tories can spin that any way they like, but I can't see it overcoming the population's disgust with having to go to the polls again. Now Labour can't use this issue as leverage.

[DL]

Allow me to be a bit contrarian, but I'm actually glad that May is calling an early election. Its abundantly clear that Jeremy Corbyn has been an unmitigated FLOP as Labour leader. But its also abundantly clear that there is no way he will quit until he has led the party through one election. Its obvious that Labour will be crushed under his leadership whether the election is in June 2017 or in May 2020...only after he loses will Labour be in a position to pick a new competent leader and have a chance to win the subsequent election.

So, I would rather have the following chronology: Labour gets demolished under Corbyn in June 2017, he quickly resigns, someone sane is picked as the new leader and there is at least a possibility that under a new leader Labour could be competitive in 2022...as opposed to Labour declines and dissolves in disarray for the next three years under Corbyn's feeble leadership to the point that by 2020, there is nothing left standing, THEN he and his party get destroyed and then we have to wait until 2025 before Labour has a chance to be competitive again in a general election.

At least this way the next election where the Labour Party could conceivable be competitive will be in 2022 rather than 2025...I'm trying hard to find a silver lining and that's all i find

[rob in cal]

    Aren't we missing the main problem with this election?  For us Atlas junkies we already have a full electoral plate this year with the French and German elections, and maybe Austrian as well.  Next year would have been more convenient. Now we are going to have to split our political excitement and energy between both France and UK at the same time.

[Barnes]

Why is Labour supporting this?

I know whenever we have these over-confident snap elections in Canada, the governing party gets turfed. See Ontario 1990 and Alberta 2015.

Because the official opposition cannot say no to a GE, it's like admitting they're pointless

Snap elections are incredibly unpopular. The Tories can spin that any way they like, but I can't see it overcoming the population's disgust with having to go to the polls again. Now Labour can't use this issue as leverage.

Political messaging aside, the motion cannot pass without Labour's backing so they would be directly responsible for blocking it. This would then lead May to pull a Schroeder 2005 and get her party to vote against her government which would be pretty amusing.

[cp]

Why is Labour supporting this?

I know whenever we have these over-confident snap elections in Canada, the governing party gets turfed. See Ontario 1990 and Alberta 2015.

Because the official opposition cannot say no to a GE, it's like admitting they're pointless

Snap elections are incredibly unpopular. The Tories can spin that any way they like, but I can't see it overcoming the population's disgust with having to go to the polls again. Now Labour can't use this issue as leverage.

What about the 2000 federal? Chretien called the Alliance's bluff and won an even bigger majority.

Regrettably, I think that might be the most salient precedent for this election. Hopelessly divided opposition with an unpopular leader vs ageing but still competent government held together by ruthless leader.

[Phony Moderate]

Why is Labour supporting this?

I know whenever we have these over-confident snap elections in Canada, the governing party gets turfed. See Ontario 1990 and Alberta 2015.

Because the official opposition cannot say no to a GE, it's like admitting they're pointless

Snap elections are incredibly unpopular. The Tories can spin that any way they like, but I can't see it overcoming the population's disgust with having to go to the polls again. Now Labour can't use this issue as leverage.

What about the 2000 federal? Chretien called the Alliance's bluff and won an even bigger majority.

Regrettably, I think that might be the most salient precedent for this election. Hopelessly divided opposition with an unpopular leader vs ageing but still competent government held together by ruthless leader.

Tbh I only regard any government as 'aging' once it's reached the 10-year mark.

[mgop]

totally pointless election, nothing will change. this looks like third world election trick, thats not how democracy works mrs. may.

[Hatman 🍁]

Why is Labour supporting this?

I know whenever we have these over-confident snap elections in Canada, the governing party gets turfed. See Ontario 1990 and Alberta 2015.

Because the official opposition cannot say no to a GE, it's like admitting they're pointless

Snap elections are incredibly unpopular. The Tories can spin that any way they like, but I can't see it overcoming the population's disgust with having to go to the polls again. Now Labour can't use this issue as leverage.

What about the 2000 federal? Chretien called the Alliance's bluff and won an even bigger majority.

It is a pretty good analogy, yes. I know I'm grasping at straws here, but the 1997-2000 term was 3.5 years long, while my Ontario and Alberta examples are closer to an even 3. Perhaps those six months made all the difference in voter's minds? Anyways, the UK election will only be 2 years after the last one, which is extremely reckless in my mind, and would never fly over here.

[Barnes]

Number 10 dousing water on having a TVdebate this time.

Those things always seemed more suited to Cameron's brand of campaigning.

[jaichind]

If current polling holds then LAB might be looking at a result worse than 1983 both in terms of vote share(27.6%) and seats(209.)  Although I suspect the polls will tighten and LAB most likely will outperform their polling just like CON outperformed their polling in 2001.  Some of the leads CON have over LAB in polls look at lot like the 2001 LAB leads over CON.

[Barnes]

The other factors that go into having this election besides the opportunity to give Labour a thrashing are to quiet down rebels on the Tory backbenches and to give May a natural opportunity to restructure the ministry.

[Babeuf]

Number 10 dousing water on having a TVdebate this time.

Those things always seemed more suited to Cameron's brand of campaigning.

Playing it as safe as they possibly can. Smart, but probably doesn't look great? Is there a chance that they would televise a debate between the other party leaders without her (although I could see Labour objecting to that because it would make them the biggest target there)?