UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Pericles]

On the bright side, polling is error-prone in the UK. Unfortunately, those errors are usually in favor of the Conservatives.

[Pericles]

I'm not sure whether to support Corbyn's Labour or the Liberal Democrats. Corbyn is too extreme and hasn't earned my support, while the LibDems are actually pro-EU while I bet Corbyn voted for Leave. However, I am not sure yet and will watch this campaign closely.

[MAINEiac4434]

I'm not sure whether to support Corbyn's Labour or the Liberal Democrats. Corbyn is too extreme and hasn't earned my support, while the LibDems are actually pro-EU while I bet Corbyn voted for Leave. However, I am not sure yet and will watch this campaign closely.

Farron (Lib Dem leader) just said that he wasn't sure if homosexuality was a sin or not, which has me as undecided again.

I guess I'm rooting for as many Labour people to win their seats as possible, but enough to lose so that Corbyn goes.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It seems Tony Blair will campaign with LIB this time.

wow way to stink up their brand.

Still better then to be associated with Corbyn

[Barnes]

Labour MPs have been told they will be automatically re-selected as candidates in their constituencies for the general election on 8 June.

Well there you go.

[DC Al Fine]

Labour could be squeezed really badly by the Tories here. David Cameron had an image as the archetypal upper class liberal elitist snob. This is something that not only put off some moderate Labour/Conservative swing voters but also led to a section of Conservative voters who switched to UKIP. With May having a strong appeal to both these groups the Tories could really clean up.

Labour has a certain core of very left wing areas, inner London, City of Birmingham, City of Manchester, Liverpool, South Yorkshire, parts of South Wales,Durham and Tyneside. They could hang on to the bulk of their seats in these areas whilst being massacred elsewhere in the Midlands and the North as has already happened elsewhere in the South.

What exactly is May's image?

[LabourJersey]

One random question: Doesn't this mean that the Scottish and Welsh elections are going to happen in May 2020? If memory serves, they have terms of four years but got into an odd scheduling issue with general elections appearing to happen regularly every five years. Does anyone know about this?

[Barnes]

One random question: Doesn't this mean that the Scottish and Welsh elections are going to happen in May 2020? If memory serves, they have terms of four years but got into an odd scheduling issue with general elections appearing to happen regularly every five years. Does anyone know about this?

The terms of both the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly were extended to five years last year to avoid clashing with the proposed 2020 date. So those elections will be in May 2021.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

[LabourJersey]

One random question: Doesn't this mean that the Scottish and Welsh elections are going to happen in May 2020? If memory serves, they have terms of four years but got into an odd scheduling issue with general elections appearing to happen regularly every five years. Does anyone know about this?

The terms of both the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly were extended to five years last year to avoid clashing with the proposed 2020 date. So those elections will be in May 2021.

Got it, thank you

[Barnes]

One random question: Doesn't this mean that the Scottish and Welsh elections are going to happen in May 2020? If memory serves, they have terms of four years but got into an odd scheduling issue with general elections appearing to happen regularly every five years. Does anyone know about this?

The terms of both the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly were extended to five years last year to avoid clashing with the proposed 2020 date. So those elections will be in May 2021.

Got it, thank you

You're welcome.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

On the bright side, polling is error-prone in the UK. Unfortunately, those errors are usually in favor of the Conservatives.

Labour were underpolled in 1983 and 2010 which is probably notable.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Would it be possible or plausible for the Tories to get 390+ seats?

[OSR stands with Israel]

My prediction is

Torie : 397
Labour : 121
Lib Dem: 60(they come 2nd in popular vote )
SNP: 54
UKIP:11
Others :7

[Ronnie]

I think the next Labour leader (after Corbyn likely steps aside) could stay on as leader of the party for a really long time, if Labour manages to make substantial gains in the next GE, even possibly without winning outright.

[MAINEiac4434]

I think the next Labour leader (after Corbyn likely steps aside) could stay on as leader of the party for a really long time, if Labour manages to make substantial gains in the next GE, even possibly without winning outright.

A-la Kinnock.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think the next Labour leader (after Corbyn likely steps aside) could stay on as leader of the party for a really long time, if Labour manages to make substantial gains in the next GE, even possibly without winning outright.

A-la Kinnock.

Would u say the numbers I predicted is possible

[MAINEiac4434]

I think the next Labour leader (after Corbyn likely steps aside) could stay on as leader of the party for a really long time, if Labour manages to make substantial gains in the next GE, even possibly without winning outright.

A-la Kinnock.

Would u say the numbers I predicted is possible

Possible? Yes, but extremely unlikely. I think Labour's floor is around 150 though, and I don't think the LibDems will finish second in votes, especially considering Farron just launched the LibDem campaign with a resounding thud.

[Intell]

My prediction is

Torie : 397
Labour : 121 (No way this low, at least above 170)
Lib Dem: 60(they come 2nd in popular vote ), noway they come 2nd in the popular vote
SNP: 54
UKIP:11 (If they didn't get 11 seats in 2015, they ceartinly ain't this time.
Others :7

Let me laugh, oh let me laugh again no.

Conservative: 41.5% (358)
Labour: 26% (183)
Liberal Democrats: 12% (31)
UKIP: 10.5% (2)
Greens: 1.5% (1)

[Boomer sooner]

I love U.K. Elections. It will be interesting to see the numbers are which voters switched from the last election. I would suspect to see lots of ukip and labour out to the tories. Labour and some tories to lib dem and Scottish labour collapsing to the tories and a bit to the liberals.

[OSR stands with Israel]

My prediction is

Torie : 397
Labour : 121 (No way this low, at least above 170)
Lib Dem: 60(they come 2nd in popular vote ), noway they come 2nd in the popular vote
SNP: 54
UKIP:11 (If they didn't get 11 seats in 2015, they ceartinly ain't this time.
Others :7

Let me laugh, oh let me laugh again no.

Conservative: 41.5% (358)
Labour: 26% (183)
Liberal Democrats: 12% (31)
UKIP: 10.5% (2)
Greens: 1.5% (1)

Lib dems will cost labor big

[Boomer sooner]

I have always thought that an early election was smart for May with one big exception being the Scotland problem and if the SNP/Green win an overall majority in the popular vote running on a pro referendum platform. I think the union is overrated overall but it would obviously badly hurt May.

[Pericles]

I think the LibDems will make a surge in the campaign as the pro-EU party while UKIP will fade. The Tories will get a big majority. I'm not sure if Labour will see its support increase or decrease between now and the election but I think a slight increase. May will win but slightly smaller than currently predicted.

[Pericles]

Using Electoral Calculus
2017 UK election
Theresa May-Conservative: 364+34 39.9%
Jeremy Corbyn-Labour: 192-37 26.5%
Nicola Strugeon-SNP: 58+4 5.2%
Tim Farron-LibDem: 13+4 14.3%
Paul Nuttall-UKIP: 0_ 9.2%
650 seats
326 for majority

[Ronnie]

Pericles, when you encounter enormous links like that, can you use tinyurl from now on?  Thanks.