UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[OSR stands with Israel]

yah your right Labour cant go below 150

Tories 393(41.4%)
Labour 152(20.5%)
SNP 54(4.9%)
Lib Dems 28(21.6%)
UKIP 0(9%)
Others 23

[Klartext89]

My prediction is

Torie : 397
Labour : 121 (No way this low, at least above 170)
Lib Dem: 60(they come 2nd in popular vote ), noway they come 2nd in the popular vote
SNP: 54
UKIP:11 (If they didn't get 11 seats in 2015, they ceartinly ain't this time.
Others :7

Let me laugh, oh let me laugh again no.

Conservative: 41.5% (358)
Labour: 26% (183)
Liberal Democrats: 12% (31)
UKIP: 10.5% (2)
Greens: 1.5% (1)

CON: 47% - 423 Seats
LAB 22% - 141 Seats
LibDem 15% - 15 seats
SNP 47 seats
Greens 2 Seats PC 4 Seats
NI 18 seats

[Clyde1998]

The Scottish Greens are suggesting that they will stand aside for the SNP in key marginal seats where the Tories could win seats, according to the National.

Meanwhile, the English and Welsh Greens are seeking a meeting with Labour and the Lib Dems to discuss electoral pacts to stop the Tories - link.

It will be interesting to see what happens in regards to this.

[parochial boy]

Farron has rejected a pact with Labour. Which makes sense if Farron's goà is moderate remainets.

[Hifly]

Please can the Americans leave this thread? It's becoming unbearable to read with the amount of nonsense that's been posted.

[JA]

Please can the Americans leave this thread? It's becoming unbearable to read with the amount of nonsense that's been posted.

From a British perspective, considering the lack of substantive polling at this point, what sort of campaign should we expect? Meaning, what key issues will each party run on? And roughly how do you expect each to perform?

[Clyde1998]

George Osborne is standing down as an MP - http://www.itv.com/news/2017-04-19/george-osborne-standing-down-as-mp/

[jaichind]

Farron has rejected a pact with Labour. Which makes sense if Farron's goà is moderate remainets.

Well, if his angle is to have the LIB capture the pro-EU vote, forming an alliance with LAB would cloud that position given Corybn's ambiguous position on Brexit.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Klatetext and OSR do you mind fixing your links so they don't break the page?

[Clyde1998]

Using the average of the most recent polls from each pollster this month:

GB-wide
Con - 43.5% (+5.7 on 2015)
Lab - 25.5% (-5.7)
UKIP - 10.3% (-2.7)
Lib - 10.3% (+2.2)
Grn - 4.3% (+0.5)
Oth - 6.3% (+0.0)

Scotland sub-samples:
SNP - 44.3% (-5.7 on 2015)
Con - 24.6 (+9.7)
Lab - 14.4 (-9.9)
Grn - 7.2 (+5.9)
Lib - 7.0 (-0.5)
UKIP - 2.0 (+0.4)
Oth - 0.5 (+0.1)

Electoral Calculus Seat Projection
Con - 382 (+51; includes Speaker)
Lab - 181 (-51)
SNP - 54 (-2)
Lib - 10 (+2)
Plaid - 4 (+1)
Grn - 1 (NC)
UKIP - 0 (-1)
Oth - 18 (NC)

[Hnv1]

Osborne standing down to edit the rag ES

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Scottish Labour pls disband.

[Clyde1998]

ITV have confirmed that they will be holding a TV debate prior to the election, a point just raised by Angus Robertson (SNP's Westminster leader) in the election motion debate. I wonder if they'd 'empty chair' the Prime Minister if she decides not to take part.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Seems like the mail will play a subtle understated role this campaign:

EnglishPete just ejaculated.

Ein Reich, Ein Volk, Eine Führerin (or at least a Cumhurbaşkanı).

Rumours going round that the Tories will put a ban on an IndyRef2 into their manifesto.

UK Independence will last a thousänd yeärs...

[Lachi]

George Osborne is standing down as an MP - http://www.itv.com/news/2017-04-19/george-osborne-standing-down-as-mp/

Thank f**k of that.

[StateBoiler]

Please can the Americans leave this thread? It's becoming unbearable to read with the amount of nonsense that's been posted.

We can make a deal: Americans will quit commenting on British politics when Brits quit commenting on American politics.

[Klartext89]

UK Independence will last a thousänd yeärs...

Heil EU!

[Clyde1998]

Early Election Motion
Should there be an early general election?
Aye - 522
Nay - 13
Absent or Abstain - 115

Parliament has approved an early election.

[Gary J]

UK Independence will last a thousänd yeärs...

Heil EU!

This reminds me more of the comment by the Labour leader, Hugh Gaitskell in 1962, that:-

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Gaitskell at the time was considered a rather right wing figure in the Labour Party, but he offended younger similar politicians (notably Roy Jenkins) by taking an anti European Economic Community stance.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Could the table breakers please FIX THEIR POSTS thank you.

[Clyde1998]

YouGov (Apr 12-13)
Con - 44% (+7 on 2015)
Lab - 23% (-7)
Lib - 12% (+4)
UKIP - 10% (-3)
Nat - 6% (+1)
Grn - 4% (NC)

Labour still ahead among remain voters, but Tories miles ahead among leave voters.

That produces, using the most recent YouGov Scotland poll for the Scottish seats (using Electoral Calculus):

Con - 398 (+67)
Lab - 161 (-71)
SNP - 57 (+1)
Lib - 10 (+2)
Plaid - 4 (+1)
Grn - 2 (+1!)
UKIP - 0 (-1)
Oth - 18 (NC)
Con maj of 146

But when you put undecided voters back to the party that they voted for in 2015 (not saying that would happen, but still):

Con - 351 (+20)
Lab - 209 (-23)
SNP - 57 (+1)
Lib - 9 (+1)
Plaid - 4 (+1)
Grn - 1 (NC)
UKIP - 1 (NC)
Oth - 18 (NC)
Con maj of 52

Seriously reduces the advance that the Conservatives make. Undecided voters are, generally, 2015 Labour, Lib Dem and 'Other' voters. It will be interesting to see where they end up as the election goes on.

[Blair]

My prediction is

Torie : 397
Labour : 121
Lib Dem: 60(they come 2nd in popular vote )
SNP: 54
UKIP:11
Others :7

This would be more seats than the Liberals got in 2010; and would require them to win not only 20 odd seats off the tories, but also about 30 off Labour.

Besides UKIP are not getting 11

[Clyde1998]

My prediction is

Torie : 397
Labour : 121
Lib Dem: 60(they come 2nd in popular vote )
SNP: 54
UKIP:11
Others :7

This would be more seats than the Liberals got in 2010; and would require them to win not only 20 odd seats off the tories, but also about 30 off Labour.

Besides UKIP are not getting 11

Others can't get as low as seven either, unless the Tories or UKIP win seats in Northern Ireland.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just deleted some FAKE NEWS I hope phew.

[IceAgeComing]

The problem with those sort of seat projections is that they assume uniform swing and I'm pretty sure that you'll see a great deal of variation in the results here: not just regional stuff but also in relation to EU issues.  If the Lib Dems get a 4% national rise that's mostly focused in Remain-voting areas then they'll most likely do better than and one or two gains that a uniform swing points out, especially if they end up going backwards in the areas that voted leave.  We'd need to see some significant regional or constituency polls in order to confirm that though; and we learned last year that you need to take the latter with a pinch of salt when it is in Lib Dem areas.

My prediction is

Torie : 397
Labour : 121
Lib Dem: 60(they come 2nd in popular vote )
SNP: 54
UKIP:11
Others :7

This would be more seats than the Liberals got in 2010; and would require them to win not only 20 odd seats off the tories, but also about 30 off Labour.

Besides UKIP are not getting 11

Others can't get as low as seven either, unless the Tories or UKIP win seats in Northern Ireland.

the tories are clearly the favourites in Belfast West; that's one other that you can tick off

also that is 100% the dumbest seat projection I've seen for this election, and I'm not at all surprised at the person that posted it - if they couldn't manage that in 1983 or 2010, they won't this year.