UK General Election, June 8th 2017
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Author Topic: UK General Election, June 8th 2017  (Read 207462 times)
MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #225 on: April 19, 2017, 12:24:06 PM »

If May doesn't show up to the debate, Corbyn will have a gargantuan target on his back. SNP, Liberal Democrats, Greens and UKIP are all trying to pull from Labour from various wings of the party (SNP from Scots, Greens from educated lefties, Liberals from militant remainers, UKIP from unionized leavers).
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afleitch
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« Reply #226 on: April 19, 2017, 12:37:49 PM »



Something to think about, Labour tend to poll lower as the campaign progresses, Tories more mixed.
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afleitch
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« Reply #227 on: April 19, 2017, 12:50:56 PM »

If you want to input numbers and have lovely maps pop up, this is probably the best choice Smiley

http://principalfish.co.uk/electionmaps/?map=predictit
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Barnes
Roy Barnes 2010
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« Reply #228 on: April 19, 2017, 12:53:31 PM »

If you want to input numbers and have lovely maps pop up, this is probably the best choice Smiley

http://principalfish.co.uk/electionmaps/?map=predictit

Ooh, how lovely! Thanks mate!
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #229 on: April 19, 2017, 12:56:01 PM »



Something to think about, Labour tend to poll lower as the campaign progresses, Tories more mixed.
I think that's may be partially down to turnout - Labour areas, generally, have lower turnouts. Interesting to note though.

Would be interesting to see what the Lib Dems do over the course of a campaign, as well.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #230 on: April 19, 2017, 01:01:04 PM »

Tendencies of all sorts exist and people should be aware of them, but the circumstances of each election differ and the polling industry has changed a great deal.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #231 on: April 19, 2017, 01:02:48 PM »

It was a tradition in the pre-Coalition days that the Lib Dems would rise during GE campaigns.
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Barnes
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« Reply #232 on: April 19, 2017, 01:09:50 PM »

It was a tradition in the pre-Coalition days that the Lib Dems would rise during GE campaigns.

With 1997 being a good example of that.  The Libs polled pretty dreadfully over the whole campaign which masked the reality of tactical voting in Con/Lib Dem marginals. Their overall vote share barely increased from '92 but they doubled their seats.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #233 on: April 19, 2017, 02:05:41 PM »

In fact, I've just worked it out myself going back to 1992:


The implied result on the average change over the last six elections is Con 44.6; Lab 19.7; Lib 13.8, which looks ridiculous.
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afleitch
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« Reply #234 on: April 19, 2017, 02:43:29 PM »

A spectacularly bad Labour campaign could see if sink to the low 20's in fairness.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #235 on: April 19, 2017, 03:16:47 PM »

It was a tradition in the pre-Coalition days that the Lib Dems would rise during GE campaigns.

With 1997 being a good example of that.  The Libs polled pretty dreadfully over the whole campaign which masked the reality of tactical voting in Con/Lib Dem marginals. Their overall vote share barely increased from '92 but they doubled their seats.
I remember the underpolling of Labour, at one point it looked like there was going to be a lab-lib coalition afterwards (I think Ashdown even suggested it)
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parochial boy
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« Reply #236 on: April 19, 2017, 03:41:32 PM »

A spectacularly bad Labour campaign could see if sink to the low 20's in fairness.

Well, given the current leadership, one of those is pretty much a given
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Barnes
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« Reply #237 on: April 19, 2017, 04:35:52 PM »

It was a tradition in the pre-Coalition days that the Lib Dems would rise during GE campaigns.

With 1997 being a good example of that.  The Libs polled pretty dreadfully over the whole campaign which masked the reality of tactical voting in Con/Lib Dem marginals. Their overall vote share barely increased from '92 but they doubled their seats.
I remember the underpolling of Labour, at one point it looked like there was going to be a lab-lib coalition afterwards (I think Ashdown even suggested it)

Blair and Ashdown had held talks before the election to form a coalition if there was a hung parliament and Blair was reportedly enamored enough with it to still consider it even when it was clear Labour would win in a landslide. The true magnitude of their victory however swept all of that away.

They did have a joint committee examine electoral reform chaired by Roy Jenkins, but like most electoral reform in Britain it come to nothing.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #238 on: April 19, 2017, 04:36:47 PM »
« Edited: April 19, 2017, 04:39:33 PM by Phony Moderate »

YouGov:

Con 48 (+4)
Lab 24 (+1)
Lib Dems 12
UKIP 7 (-3)
Others 9 (-1)

Would be the highest vote share for any party in about half a century.
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henster
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« Reply #239 on: April 19, 2017, 04:49:26 PM »

Maybe after 12 years of Tory rule the Left will finally unite in 2022, I could see a real attempt at a serious coalition especially if Brexit flops.
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jaichind
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« Reply #240 on: April 19, 2017, 05:10:11 PM »

Independent: Jeremy Corbyn 'likely to stay on' even if Labour suffers crushing election defeat
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Lachi
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« Reply #241 on: April 19, 2017, 05:19:08 PM »

Independent: Jeremy Corbyn 'likely to stay on' even if Labour suffers crushing election defeat
That's delusion at it's finest
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #242 on: April 19, 2017, 05:19:19 PM »

Maybe after 12 years of Tory rule the Left will finally unite in 2022, I could see a real attempt at a serious coalition especially if Brexit flops.

If tories get 385 + I see them lasting up til 2027
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #243 on: April 19, 2017, 05:22:35 PM »

Blair and his ilk inflicted decades of damage on Labour. Corbyn hasn't had adequate time to rebuild, especially with ongoing corporate sabotage.
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
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« Reply #244 on: April 19, 2017, 05:22:47 PM »

Independent: Jeremy Corbyn 'likely to stay on' even if Labour suffers crushing election defeat

WHAT A SURPRISE

Blair and his ilk inflicted decades of damage on Labour. Corbyn hasn't had adequate time to rebuild, especially with ongoing corporate sabotage.

Corbyn doesn't want to "rebuild" and is manifestly not trying to.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #245 on: April 19, 2017, 05:27:41 PM »

Blair and his ilk inflicted decades of damage on Labour. Corbyn hasn't had adequate time to rebuild, especially with ongoing corporate sabotage.
You're insane with leftism aren't you.  Activity cheering on the man destroying a leftist party for purity reasons.
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Mike Thick
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« Reply #246 on: April 19, 2017, 05:30:54 PM »

Independent: Jeremy Corbyn 'likely to stay on' even if Labour suffers crushing election defeat

As stated earlier, does this really surprise anyone? I'm no British politics aficionado, but it seems like if he was too arrogant to leave even after the earlier fiasco, he's too arrogant to step down after leading his party to a landslide loss.
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Figueira
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« Reply #247 on: April 19, 2017, 05:51:09 PM »

Independent: Jeremy Corbyn 'likely to stay on' even if Labour suffers crushing election defeat

Isn't it fairly standard to say this and then go back on that promise after the actual vote?
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parochial boy
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« Reply #248 on: April 19, 2017, 05:55:06 PM »

Blair and his ilk inflicted decades of damage on Labour. Corbyn hasn't had adequate time to rebuild, especially with ongoing corporate sabotage.

The scary thing is that people actually believe this.

The Labour party has moved on from Tony Blair, the country has moved on from Tony Blair. Get over f'cking Tony Blair, he isn't relevant any more.

The reason ex-Labour voters are now voting for the neoliberal, austerity, Brexit Tory party is not becuase of Tony Blair. It is because of Corbyn's ridiculous brand of dogmatic, anti-imperialist "leftism".

It is because Corbyn's utter incompetence and inability to lead his party.

It is because Corbyn has failed to sell any sort of message to the British people.

It is because Corbyn can't find anything to say about the issues that actually matter to people.

It is because he has at no point looked like a remotely credible leader.

But never mind, if he gets crushed, it will because of a man who stepped down 10 years ago; and we will see the Labour party dwindle into irrelevance, like the Liberals did in the 1930s.

With that, Corbyn will have single handedly destroyed any hope of a real left wing case ever being made and ever being given the chance to govern. Hisis incompetence is discrediting all left wing policies in the eyes of the British public; and making left wingers look incompetent, out of touch, irrelevant and clueless
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #249 on: April 19, 2017, 05:56:18 PM »

If Corbyn is given a chance to get his polices out, I think Labour will start to pick up. There are a number of polices that the public like.

I feel that this is why May doesn't want to be involved in a debate, as it will allow for people to contrast the Tories' policies with Labour's. Also, she doesn't want her, and Cameron's, record scrutinised as it would probably harm the Tories. Additionally, it may reduce the number of people that actually watch the debates if May isn't there.

I can't see the Conservatives ending up on 48%, although anything above 42% would probably lead to a landslide...
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