UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Zinneke]

Are coal miners in the UK labour conservative or liberal democrats

They are solid tory voters of course, and burn effigies of a former labour PM.

didnt coal miners dislike Reagan here too , and despite that they became solidly gop in the 2000s.

Issue salience on social issues are very very low down on the list of the urban proleteriat in Europe. Besides, the UK Labour party has a quite "workerist" wing to cover any of that particular electorate. Their Stoke by-election campaign was evidence of that.

Also, the traditional standard bearers of depressed industrial peripheries vs urban liberal centres in Europe have been centre-left parties, although this trend is clearly changing. I don't think European workers really care about the centre-periphery issue though, unlike in the US where the Southern and Rust belt GOP vote might be associated with "anti-Washington" politics.

[Phony Moderate]

Are coal miners in the UK labour conservative or liberal democrats

It's a well-known fact that 55% of them are David Laws-style Lib Dems, 21% are Greens, 16% are Cornish Nationalists and 8% are swing voters between the Scottish Pensioner's Party and Rainbow Dream Ticket.

[DC Al Fine]

Are coal miners in the UK labour conservative or liberal democrats

They are solid tory voters of course, and burn effigies of a former labour PM.

didnt coal miners dislike Reagan here too , and despite that they became solidly gop in the 2000s.

It's a bit different. What you're asking is like wondering if blacks vote mostly GOP.

[Zinneke]

Are coal miners in the UK labour conservative or liberal democrats

They are solid tory voters of course, and burn effigies of a former labour PM.

didnt coal miners dislike Reagan here too , and despite that they became solidly gop in the 2000s.

It's a bit different. What you're asking is like wondering if blacks vote mostly GOP.

Actually this is the better analogy, yeah.

I'm wondering if One Nation Toryism ever made inroads in mining communities before Thatcher came along?

[Intell]

Are coal miners in the UK labour conservative or liberal democrats

They are solid tory voters of course, and burn effigies of a former labour PM.

didnt coal miners dislike Reagan here too , and despite that they became solidly gop in the 2000s.

Issue salience on social issues are very very low down on the list of the urban proleteriat in Europe. Besides, the UK Labour party has a quite "workerist" wing to cover any of that particular electorate. Their Stoke by-election campaign was evidence of that.

Also, the traditional standard bearers of depressed industrial peripheries vs urban liberal centres in Europe have been centre-left parties, although this trend is clearly changing. I don't think European workers really care about the centre-periphery issue though, unlike in the US where the Southern and Rust belt GOP vote might be associated with "anti-Washington" politics.

From the UK from what it seems, the divide seems to be between the north vs south, and thatcher with support in london and south being responsible for the death of industry in northern working class areas.

It isn't divided into the classical remain vs leave areas, where the liberal metropolitan elite was resented at, but a broader resentment at the affluence of the south, and the despair of industrial areas, as evidenced by strong leave votes, in solidly labour areas, and this being continued in the stoke by-election.

I'm probably wrong, but this is what it seems like.

In addition, the labour party in the UK, seems to attract the majority of the poor, working class vote, in the UK, while in other European Countries, like France, Austria, Denmark, Eastern Germany, Finland? they have gone to the far-right.

[Hnv1]

The race to succeed Corbs heats up. New statesman already bigging up Cooper (again). I actually think Watson would perform better than her electorally.

On my current count 8 lab incumbents are standing down making their seats competitive.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Labour MP who voted against holding the snap election steps down

[Helsinkian]

Douglas Carswell is also stepping down.

[Hnv1]

On a brilliant night the tories could take Slough

[Tintrlvr]

On a brilliant night the tories could take Slough

It is one of the few seats that swung to Labour in 2015.

[MAINEiac4434]

lol corbyn

https://twitter.com/yougov/status/854975227960455168

Theresa May gains her highest ever "best Prime Minister" rating at 54% - Jeremy Corbyn on 15%, don't know 31%

[jaichind]

lol corbyn

https://twitter.com/yougov/status/854975227960455168

Theresa May gains her highest ever "best Prime Minister" rating at 54% - Jeremy Corbyn on 15%, don't know 31%

That might be inflating the May advantage since it is the same as the Yougov poll that had massive lead of CON 48 LAB 24.  If that is the state of the race then LAB is doomed.  If that exaggerates the CON lead then most likely the May lead over Corybn is exaggerated as well.   In many ways this is very relevant. I recall that in 2015 LAB and CON traded leads but  Cameron was consistently ahead of Miliband on the leadership question the entire campaign which ended up being very predictive.

[Barnes]

Gerald Coyne, Len McCluskey's opponent to lead Unite, has been suspended from the union just before the leadership votes are to be counted. Can't see this playing out particularly well.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/20/unite-union-gerard-coyne-suspended-west-midlands-len-mccluskey-uk?CMP=twt_gu

[MAINEiac4434]

Some random dude on Twitter says Coyne was ahead in the election.

https://mobile.twitter.com/feedthedrummer/status/855072465881632768

Tom Wilson‏ @feedthedrummer

I have heard from multiple people that Coyne was just ahead in the Unite vote sampling this morning before his suspension was announced.

[Hnv1]

http://www.labour.org.uk/index.php/10-pledges

Shortest suicide note in history?

[kyc0705]

Are coal miners in the UK labour conservative or liberal democrats

What an absurd question. Nobody is a Lib Dem anymore.

[Hatman 🍁]

Is there any way we can ban Americans from posting in this thread unless they pass an IQ test or something?

The poster in question should be banned from this forum in general.

But... lol.. I don't think it's possible to formulate a post that would bug Al any more than that one.

[JerryArkansas]

Is there any way we can ban Americans from posting in this thread unless they pass an IQ test or something?

Yes, please.  I do like coming to these threads to read good discussions, not questions that are answerable with a simple google.

[kyc0705]

Are coal miners in the UK labour conservative or liberal democrats

Wait, wait, I'm going to riff on this post again: GOOGLE EXISTS

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Don't know is this is FAKE NEWS but reports that we may be seeing a Corbyn dynasty

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But... lol.. I don't think it's possible to formulate a post that would bug Al any more than that one.

#triggered yes...

[jaichind]

I think  Corbyn logic for staying on  if LAB gets beaten badly is superficially that he has been in charge for two years and that is too short to judge leadership performance.

But I think at a deeper level I suspect he has a particular view of electoral history.  He mostly likely views election cycles as mostly fixed.  Meaning once an incumbent party has been in charge enough political debt, contradictions, and internal conflict  build up to the point that they will be beaten at the polls regardless of the opposition.  So in his mind Tony Blair or New Labor was not necessary to win in 1997.  A LAB party led by Corbyn or Foot for example would have won in 1997 as well, perhaps will a smaller majority. So in his mind, losing in 2017, perhaps badly, and losing in 2022 is par for the course.  As long as he or someone from the Far Left is in charge of LAB by 2027 when the CON government has been charge long enough then his agenda can be implemented under a Far Left LAB government.  In fact losing badly in 2017 would be a feature and not a bug.  Losing all marginal LAB seats would mean that PLP will lean even more Left making even easier for Corbyn's successor to be from the Far Left.

One can agree or disagree with Corbyn's view of electoral cycle history but I suspect this how he feels.  There are data to back up his view.  Trump's 2016 victory would be evidence of this view.  I very flawed candidate was able to win based on the anti-incumbency effect of a party being in power for 8 years and an open seat.

Only other alternative is that  Corbyn is actually a deep double agenda working for the CON party.

[Blair]

I think  Corbyn logic for staying on  if LAB gets beaten badly is superficially that he has been in charge for two years and that is too short to judge leadership performance.

But I think at a deeper level I suspect he has a particular view of electoral history.  He mostly likely views election cycles as mostly fixed.  Meaning once an incumbent party has been in charge enough political debt, contradictions, and internal conflict  build up to the point that they will be beaten at the polls regardless of the opposition.  So in his mind Tony Blair or New Labor was not necessary to win in 1997.  A LAB party led by Corbyn or Foot for example would have won in 1997 as well, perhaps will a smaller majority. So in his mind, losing in 2017, perhaps badly, and losing in 2022 is par for the course.  As long as he or someone from the Far Left is in charge of LAB by 2027 when the CON government has been charge long enough then his agenda can be implemented under a Far Left LAB government.  In fact losing badly in 2017 would be a feature and not a bug.  Losing all marginal LAB seats would mean that PLP will lean even more Left making even easier for Corbyn's successor to be from the Far Left.

One can agree or disagree with Corbyn's view of electoral cycle history but I suspect this how he feels.  There are data to back up his view.  Trump's 2016 victory would be evidence of this view.  I very flawed candidate was able to win based on the anti-incumbency effect of a party being in power for 8 years and an open seat.

Only other alternative is that  Corbyn is actually a deep double agenda working for the CON party.

Partly true- Corbyn doesn't believe that the 'cycle' will eventually lead to a socialist election victory (as Al noted Labour go through very long, violent opposition spells), but rather that the best way to continue the cause is wait until conference to try and change the rules.

As many Corbynites have briefed there is a danger of Tom Watson sitting on the leadership until Autumn, bringing back the old electoral college and then giving the crown to Yvette. Lots of my labour friends have been talking about Yvette as the next leader. She's the type of person who always appealed to the Labor HQ types.

It seems likely Chukka would run against her- and ironically could do it from the left on a couple of issues.

[The Free North]

Are coal miners in the UK labour conservative or liberal democrats

What an absurd question. Nobody is a Lib Dem anymore.

Its an absurd question because no one mines coal anymore.

Hence the decline of traditional center left parties like Labour in Europe....their natural base of support has gone away or been usurped by anti-EU parties which are more right wing than anything else.

To that end, I don't see how a party based on the labor movements of the early 20th century and the rise of an urban, industrial class with all of its associated political and economic needs can win consistently in the coming years in the absence of complete incompetence from the center right.

[MAINEiac4434]

George Eaton ✔ @georgeeaton
Sampling shows Unite's Gerard Coyne on 46% and Len McCluskey on 44%, according to source.

Things are getting very dicey in Unite...and Labour.