UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[afleitch]

in order for Labour to get a majority of 1 they'd need a uniform swing around the levels that Blair got in 1997

I think it's fair to say that using Scotland ended up bad for Labour

How? Wouldn't a hung parliament most likely lead to a Labour-SNP government?

Forcing a hung parliament shouldn't be hard (let's forget about the polling for a second).

Labour hate the SNP more than the SNP. They've always had a disdain for any other political outfit that shares their turf (or takes their voters) Labour have went hard on unionist in Scotland with some calling for people to tactically vote Tory against the SNP. What's left of the party membership (which may actually be in the region of a few thousand) are not as converted to that cause as the party think.

The reality is that there had to be some sort of understanding in place with the SNP to govern 'after 2020' (when that looked like a possibility), assuming the SNP retain their dominance in Scotland.

Here's Kezia back in 2007 after she was rejected by the SNP but before she worked her way up to Labour leader



So this is the sort of mentality Labour 'in England' would have to work with. Which is why it's not going to happen.

[kyc0705]

In light of the complete garbage Political Compass put out about France, what do you think they'll do for the UK?

They'll probably go back to putting the main parties in the blue corner like in 2015



Only the Greens and regionalist/Northern Irish parties managed to escape, and  many were pretty close to the centre anyways

Except that the guy who makes Political Compass seems to be the sort of person who would have a hard-on for Jeremy Corbyn, so I'd expect him to move Labour to just below-left of center.

Can I make some guesses? Their analysis of the election will include a diatribe in which Corbyn's policies are called "refreshing." They will also make frustrated comments about "unforgiving scrutinizing from an unsympathetic media climate."

This, of course, will only come after several paragraphs about May's Conservatives participating in the "globalization project even in a post-Brexit environment." Finally, there will be some oddly positive statements about UKIP, which they will then hastily qualify with it just being a matter of their protectionism.

[Blair]

in order for Labour to get a majority of 1 they'd need a uniform swing around the levels that Blair got in 1997

I think it's fair to say that using Scotland ended up bad for Labour

How? Wouldn't a hung parliament most likely lead to a Labour-SNP government?

Forcing a hung parliament shouldn't be hard (let's forget about the polling for a second).

The quirk of our system is that you don't need a Labour-SNP government (e.g SNP having cabinet posts) but you'd rather just say to the SNP that they should support the government on confidence votes+budget+Queens Speech in exchange for some changes.

An interesting change is that a lot of 'unionist' voters are now voting in a bloc in Scotland more so than in 2015 (or so I've read)

So we could have a lot of Labour/Liberals voting for Tories in certain seats, and so on.

[Barnes]

in order for Labour to get a majority of 1 they'd need a uniform swing around the levels that Blair got in 1997

I think it's fair to say that using Scotland ended up bad for Labour

How? Wouldn't a hung parliament most likely lead to a Labour-SNP government?

Forcing a hung parliament shouldn't be hard (let's forget about the polling for a second).

The quirk of our system is that you don't need a Labour-SNP government (e.g SNP having cabinet posts) but you'd rather just say to the SNP that they should support the government on confidence votes+budget+Queens Speech in exchange for some changes.

An interesting change is that a lot of 'unionist' voters are now voting in a bloc in Scotland more so than in 2015 (or so I've read)

So we could have a lot of Labour/Liberals voting for Tories in certain seats, and so on.

Indeed this is how governments are usually formed at Westminster without majorities. The full coalition of 2010 through the results of an election was more of an aberration than the norm.  

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The LibDems have just nominated an unrepentant racist at Bradford East.

[doktorb]

What I always remember about UK elections and this Forum are the annual questions from Americans and others unfamiliar with the results announcement spectacle of candidates lined up on a platform wearing over sized rosettes, and long may that polite confusion remain.

[Barnes]

What I always remember about UK elections and this Forum are the annual questions from Americans and others unfamiliar with the results announcement spectacle of candidates lined up on a platform wearing over sized rosettes, and long may that polite confusion remain.

Well I prefer addressing some polite confusion than answering "will UKIP get a majority?"

[Blair]

The LibDems have just nominated an unrepentant racist at Bradford East.

Is that the same guy who use to be their MP?

[Barnes]

The LibDems have just nominated an unrepentant racist at Bradford East.

Is that the same guy who use to be their MP?

The one and the only.

[Clyde1998]

http://www.itv.com/news/border/2017-04-20/fish-finger-to-take-on-tim-farron-in-election/

Tim Farron has his first competitor in his seat - a Fish Finger.

[Devout Centrist]

This is embarrassing

[Middle-aged Europe]

http://www.itv.com/news/border/2017-04-20/fish-finger-to-take-on-tim-farron-in-election/

Tim Farron has his first competitor in his seat - a Fish Finger.

Someone had to give him the finger..

[parochial boy]

The LibDems have just nominated an unrepentant racist at Bradford East.

Is that the same guy who use to be their MP?

The one and the only.

Sadly, some of his more unpleasant views are probably quite a good fit for that particular constituency

[Vosem]

The LibDems have just nominated an unrepentant racist at Bradford East.

Is that the same guy who use to be their MP?

The one and the only.

Ugh, why are European parties terrible

[rob in cal]

  While it doesn't look like it will be happening, I'm intrigued by the idea of an anti-Tory electoral pact and its effectiveness.  Would it in fact help to win seats if Greens, Lib Dems and Labour put up one candidate in the main marginal or thought to be marginal seats?  Or would there be a counter movement, say UKIP candidates standing down in favor of all solid pro-Brexit tory candidates?
    One would think that there would be at least some room for an anti-Tory pact, at least in some limited seats, where two of the three opponents would have no chance to win, but even this doesn't seem likely.  Seems to me a missed opportunity.

[YL]

  While it doesn't look like it will be happening, I'm intrigued by the idea of an anti-Tory electoral pact and its effectiveness.  Would it in fact help to win seats if Greens, Lib Dems and Labour put up one candidate in the main marginal or thought to be marginal seats?  Or would there be a counter movement, say UKIP candidates standing down in favor of all solid pro-Brexit tory candidates?
    One would think that there would be at least some room for an anti-Tory pact, at least in some limited seats, where two of the three opponents would have no chance to win, but even this doesn't seem likely.  Seems to me a missed opportunity.

There's probably little advantage in a formal pact.  In a place like Bath (for example) in this election (not in 2015) most Labour supporters who would vote Lib Dem if Labour didn't stand are likely to vote Lib Dem tactically anyway, and a Labour endorsement might put some right-wing voters off voting Lib Dem.  And in Lab/Con marginals it's not at all clear that the absence of a Lib Dem candidate would even move things in the right direction, while those places tend to have few enough Green voters that their withdrawal wouldn't make much difference (and of course some of them will be Green die-hards who wouldn't vote Labour anyway).

And it would be horrendously difficult to actually get a pact going.  There are quite a few Labour people who hate the Lib Dems, and vice versa.  The Greens seem keenest on the idea, but what would Labour and the Lib Dems actually be able to give them?

So the most that's likely to happen is some tactical voting campaigns, which won't be officially endorsed by the parties.  The Greens may unilaterally withdraw in a few areas, but it won't make much difference, and I'd be surprised if either Labour or the Lib Dems did.

[joevsimp]

Yeah, that's the most likely at this point I think, I've been critical of CL/JB banging on so much about Progressive Alliance for a while, my branch also put in a motion at conference last year pointing out that it had not been voted on as party policy (it has now though I think).  I was also not surprised to see Labour reject it out of hand so quickly, what with Clause 1 and everything

muttering's I have heard so far are potentially Greens standing down in one of both seats in Plymouth which was one of the places in 2015 that the tory majority was smaller than the Green vote, but the issue is that we barely campaigned there, those voters actively chose not to vote for the Labour party and Labour can't expect to have them delivered on a platter without working to win them over.

Labour branch in Jeremy Hunt's seat in Surrey are considering standing down as well, but IMHO this should be so that they can get behind the NHS Action candidate who got 10% last time, rather than the Lib Dems, of course there's precedent for the LibDems backing that party's forerunners in Kidderminster in 2001, not that Labour would like to be reminded of that.

tl;dr, everyone's ideological baggage and mutual distrusts make PA a non starter, could've been done for 2020, but no chance this quickly, which I think was a minor contribution to May's deision to go for the snap poll

[Phony Moderate]

All voters in all GB constituencies should have the opportunity to vote for a Labour candidate.

[Gary J]

Electoral pacts are difficult to arrange due to the tribal nature of British political parties. Now the norm is that Labour, Conservative and the Liberal Democrats will contest every seat in Great Britain, apart from the Speaker's constituency and very occasional special cases like Martin Bell in Tatton in 1997.

Two generations ago there was not the expectation that the major parties would contest every seat.

Before 1964 there were local pacts, in two northern English boroughs with two seats, to have a Conservative candidate in one seat and a Liberal in the other. In 1964 Labour won both seats in Bolton and Huddersfield.

[Blair]

I mean the Greens offered us the pact- and as a condition asked for us to stand down a sitting MP in Bristol East (who's name I can't spell off the top of my head) for the green Candidate.

The Greens have very little to gain from a pact beyond keeping their Brighton Seat

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Notorious fruitloop LibDem ex- MP John Hemming is standing again against notorious rent a gob Jess Phillips.

[Blair]

Notorious fruitloop LibDem ex- MP John Hemming is standing again against notorious rent a gob Jess Phillips.

The man who has had 26 affairs according to his own wife

[afleitch]

Opinium;
Con 45 (+7) Lab 26 (-3) LD 11 (+4) UKIP 9 (-5)

[parochial boy]

I mean the Greens offered us the pact- and as a condition asked for us to stand down a sitting MP in Bristol East (who's name I can't spell off the top of my head) for the green Candidate.

The Greens have very little to gain from a pact beyond keeping their Brighton Seat

Was the Isle of Wight their best performance in a non-Labour held seat? Surely they could benefit from people desperate to get rid of the, er, scandal-prone Andrew Turner.

[Barnes]

Opinium;
Con 45 (+7) Lab 26 (-3) LD 11 (+4) UKIP 9 (-5)

Opinium also did approvals for most of the party leaders:

Theresa May: 49% approval/28% disapproval (net +21)
Jeremy Corbyn: 18% approval/53% disapproval (net -35)
Tim Farron: 17% approval/35% disapproval (net -18)
Paul Nuttall: 11% approval/42% disapproval (net -31)