UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[MAINEiac4434]

All voters in all GB constituencies should have the opportunity to vote for a Labour candidate.

Exactly. And the audacity of a protest party asking a party of government to stand down in a constituency already held...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Opinium;
Con 45 (+7) Lab 26 (-3) LD 11 (+4) UKIP 9 (-5)

Amusingly blatant herding there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Theresa May: 49% approval/28% disapproval (net +21)

It's easy to mock firms like Opinium - and right to really - but this is a telling statistic. Those are by no means terrible figures, but they should not be leading to a potential landslide.

[Barnes]

Theresa May: 49% approval/28% disapproval (net +21)

It's easy to mock firms like Opinium - and right to really - but this is a telling statistic. Those are by no means terrible figures, but they should not be leading to a potential landslide.

I was thinking similarly. May's stratospheric approvals have gone down but being miles ahead of Corbyn puts her in landslide territory by default.

[Beet]

Is there any indication Corbyn actually want to win, or even have a good enough result so as to gain seats? Or is he basically the death wish personified?

[Blair]

Is there any indication Corbyn actually want to win, or even have a good enough result so as to gain seats? Or is he basically the death wish personified?

Well he's visiting target seats but no...

He never wanted to run for the leadership in 2015, he then never expected to win, and then wanted to leave last summer during the no-confidence vote. He'd 'apparently' given a retirement date to his inner circle, and it was expected he'd leave after conference this autumn, or at the latest stay until 2018-2019.

I mean ideally the PLP would have replaced him with Yvette Cooper/Hilary Benn, and turned a landslide into a moderate loss.

As Barnes and Al also say, it really needs to be screamed that Theresa May really isn't a good politician. She's absolutely awful off-script, and has a horrible work attitude (something like 6 staff members have quit downing street) and there's tons of horror stories from her time in the Home Office.

However by being Home Secretary for 6 years, along with a robotic bore on Brexit she's managed to appear 'competent'. The big problem for the tories is that there is no PM in waiting

 

[Peter]

Labour branch in Jeremy Hunt's seat in Surrey are considering standing down as well, but IMHO this should be so that they can get behind the NHS Action candidate who got 10% last time, rather than the Lib Dems, of course there's precedent for the LibDems backing that party's forerunners in Kidderminster in 2001, not that Labour would like to be reminded of that.

IIRC the dismal Lib Dem performance in SW Surrey was due to the Lib Dems disavowing their own candidate due to some probable fraud and telling their own voters to vote for NHA candidate. Presumably they will support their own candidate this time as this is a place they used to be competitive.

[jeron]

Is there any indication Corbyn actually want to win, or even have a good enough result so as to gain seats? Or is he basically the death wish personified?

Well he's visiting target seats but no...

He never wanted to run for the leadership in 2015, he then never expected to win, and then wanted to leave last summer during the no-confidence vote. He'd 'apparently' given a retirement date to his inner circle, and it was expected he'd leave after conference this autumn, or at the latest stay until 2018-2019.
 

Well, he won't make it to the conference now that Labour is headed for its worst defeat in at least 80 years. And if it does turn out that way, there is no one to blame but him. He really should have stood down when the no-confidence vote was passed by the Labour MPs last year.

[Phony Moderate]

However by being Home Secretary for 6 years, along with a robotic bore on Brexit she's managed to appear 'competent'. The big problem for the tories is that there is no PM in waiting 

If/when May finally becomes unpopular Ruth Davidson may become to her premiership what Boris Johnson was to much of Cameron's.

I'm just looking at a list of the current cabinet members and I'd forgotten how atrocious it is. Has-beens, fruitcakes, nonentities, incompetents. Just awful.

[Blair]

However by being Home Secretary for 6 years, along with a robotic bore on Brexit she's managed to appear 'competent'. The big problem for the tories is that there is no PM in waiting 

If/when May finally becomes unpopular Ruth Davidson may become to her premiership what Boris Johnson was to much of Cameron's.

I'm just looking at a list of the current cabinet members and I'd forgotten how atrocious it is. Has-beens, fruitcakes, nonentities, incompetents. Just awful.

I'm surprised that Ruth Davidson isn't going for a seat, although the moment she got into parliament every move would be seen through the leadership prism; so it may suit her to wait until 2020.

I only worked out how bad it was after talking to a Tory friend of mine who pointed out that the two leading contenders are Amber Rudd and Philip Hammond who, and I quote 'has a problem with the gays'.

[afleitch]

ComRes

Con 50(+4) Lab 25(-) LD 11(-) UKIP 7(-2)

That would see a majority of 200 with Labour reduced to 140 seats

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

ComRes

Con 50(+4) Lab 25(-) LD 11(-) UKIP 7(-2)

That would see a majority of 200 with Labour reduced to 140 seats

lol why would anyone put stock in polls that produce figures like this? This is utterly insane; for Labour to do this badly, they would need to be in power during the Great Depression and betray their voters. I don't think that having an incompetent, bumbling leader is sufficient (though it is necessary) for the Tories to garner 50% of the vote.

[Silent Hunter]

ComRes

Con 50(+4) Lab 25(-) LD 11(-) UKIP 7(-2)

That would see a majority of 200 with Labour reduced to 140 seats

This is utterly insane; for Labour to do this badly, they would need to be in power during the Great Depression and betray their voters.

You were saying?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

ComRes

Con 50(+4) Lab 25(-) LD 11(-) UKIP 7(-2)

That would see a majority of 200 with Labour reduced to 140 seats

This is utterly insane; for Labour to do this badly, they would need to be in power during the Great Depression and betray their voters.

You were saying?

That was the allusion, yes.

[Silent Hunter]

Got it. Thanks. But Labour was in power during the Great Recession...

[Clyde1998]

Apparently the upcoming Panelbase Scotland poll puts the Tories on 12 seats. 😖

@ShippersUnbound: "Sunday Times Scotland/Panelbase poll

John Curtice analysis of our poll shows Tories on course for 12 seats in Scotland.

Labour wiped out"

[Silent Hunter]

The poll tax was 27 years ago. There are now voters who don't even remember the invasion of Iraq...

[IceAgeComing]

I mean the Greens offered us the pact- and as a condition asked for us to stand down a sitting MP in Bristol East (who's name I can't spell off the top of my head) for the green Candidate.

The Greens have very little to gain from a pact beyond keeping their Brighton Seat

Was the Isle of Wight their best performance in a non-Labour held seat? Surely they could benefit from people desperate to get rid of the, er, scandal-prone Andrew Turner.

The Isle of Wight was our best non-Labour performance (although Norwich South was Lib Dem held in 2010; we jumped into second as the Libs fell to third) although its local issues that caused it - Vix Louthion is very well known and popular locally; the almost total dissapearance of the Liberal Democrats on the island (twenty years ago the Lib Dems won the seat and ten years ago they ran the council and consistently ran the Tories relatively close in General Elections: in 2015 they finished fifth and almost lost their deposit and in local government they could only find like four candidates willing to stand as Liberal Democrats in 2013 (although lots stood for a variety of independent groups: the "Island Independents" were a mix of former Liberals and Tories that couldn't get power from within the local Tory party: lots of the latter defected back to the council over the last few years to give the Tories a clear majority but they refused to take control of the council until the Independent council leader resigned at the start of the year because they couldn't get anything done) led to those staunchly anti-Tory voters having to go somewhere and the Greens were the most appropriate place for a variety of reasons: I think the strength of our candidate and the fact that the local Greens actually tried while Labour didn't made it clear early on that we were probably going to be the biggest non-right party in 2015.  Its not a seat that we're likely to win even with Turner's indescretions: there's apparently very small chats about standing an anti-Turner Independent Conservative but even if that happened we wouldn't be the party to benefit; you'd need an even split between Turner and the Independent Tory; us to gain all of the Labour and Liberal votes and a chunk of the UKIP vote to go to the Greens, all of which are highly unlikely.  Turner's probably safe this election, especially with UKIP going backwards nationally although they might not in the Isle of Wight because he's on the ballot again after promising to go after this term in the 2015 election.

[Blair]

As I said earlier it's because no voters are beginning to vote as 'unionist' voters. The SNP got 56 seats with 50% of the vote in 2015.

Labour are heading towards the levels of Pasok in Scotland. Much like Brexit we have absolutely no stance on independence

[Hydera]

ComRes

Con 50(+4) Lab 25(-) LD 11(-) UKIP 7(-2)

That would see a majority of 200 with Labour reduced to 140 seats

lol why would anyone put stock in polls that produce figures like this? This is utterly insane; for Labour to do this badly, they would need to be in power during the Great Depression and betray their voters. I don't think that having an incompetent, bumbling leader is sufficient (though it is necessary) for the Tories to garner 50% of the vote.

Image and Presentation are crucial in an election. Corbyn might be saying a lot of good things but his past statements(falklands, hamas, etc) and image isnt something that even many labour voters want to be associated with.

If they even brought back Miliband then Labour's vote share would increase ( but not enough to beat the conservatives considering they still have the support of many 2015 UKIP voters. )

[Clyde1998]

As I said earlier it's because no voters are beginning to vote as 'unionist' voters. The SNP got 56 seats with 50% of the vote in 2015.

Labour are heading towards the levels of Pasok in Scotland. Much like Brexit we have absolutely no stance on independence

Labour do have a policy on independence, but it isn't the only thing they ever mention - unlike the Tories.

[Zanas]

These are all "honeymoon figures", but I'm not sure the Tories will still be in honeymoon territory in June after a few weeks of (incompetently) campaigning. Not saying Labour will win or anything, but I don't buy a 50% score in any way.

[Clyde1998]

Survation:
Con - 40% (+2 since January)
Lab - 29% (-)
Lib - 11% (+1)
UKIP - 11% (-2)

[Clyde1998]

Survation Scotland
SNP - 43.1%
Con - 27.9%
Lab - 17.8%
Lib - 8.8%

[IceAgeComing]

As I said earlier it's because no voters are beginning to vote as 'unionist' voters. The SNP got 56 seats with 50% of the vote in 2015.

I'm still not convinced of this: most of the "unionist" voters that I know are either voting Labour or SNP in this election; the latter being an anti-Tory vote.  I think that there's a decent number of the latter existing (there has to be: just because of the number of places where the independence vote was in the low 40s but where the SNP got above 50%) and its certainly an ignored demographic.  Especially since this is a Westminster election where the Tories have a strong chance at government unlike Holyrood last year: I still think that as we get close to polling day and that becomes clear to people we'll see that Tory number fall a little bit.