UK General Election, June 8th 2017
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Author Topic: UK General Election, June 8th 2017  (Read 207433 times)
RBH
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« Reply #425 on: April 24, 2017, 02:21:28 PM »

Dumb question: wonder if any of the regional parties could keep a deposit in any constituency outside their home area. SNP outside of Scotland might have more appeal to some than other non-Tory parties.

So, wonder if this election result will inspire some to become more supportive of IRV systems over FPTP
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #426 on: April 24, 2017, 03:04:49 PM »

Dumb question: wonder if any of the regional parties could keep a deposit in any constituency outside their home area. SNP outside of Scotland might have more appeal to some than other non-Tory parties.

So, wonder if this election result will inspire some to become more supportive of IRV systems over FPTP

My guess as an Anglophone Canadian is f[inks] no.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #427 on: April 24, 2017, 03:07:51 PM »
« Edited: April 24, 2017, 03:22:06 PM by Tintrlvr »

Dumb question: wonder if any of the regional parties could keep a deposit in any constituency outside their home area. SNP outside of Scotland might have more appeal to some than other non-Tory parties.

So, wonder if this election result will inspire some to become more supportive of IRV systems over FPTP

I think this has been discussed before, and the only remotely possible location is for the SNP in Corby, but even that seems like a stretch for them to retain their deposit.

There was some Irish Nationalist who was elected to represent part of Liverpool in the early 20th century as I recall.

Edit: Yes, it was Liverpool, though T.P. O'Connor was actually first elected in 1885 and held the seat until his death in 1929, having been unopposed for reelection in all elections after 1910.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liverpool_Scotland_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
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Barnes
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« Reply #428 on: April 24, 2017, 03:31:57 PM »

Dumb question: wonder if any of the regional parties could keep a deposit in any constituency outside their home area. SNP outside of Scotland might have more appeal to some than other non-Tory parties.

So, wonder if this election result will inspire some to become more supportive of IRV systems over FPTP

I think this has been discussed before, and the only remotely possible location is for the SNP in Corby, but even that seems like a stretch for them to retain their deposit.

There was some Irish Nationalist who was elected to represent part of Liverpool in the early 20th century as I recall.

Edit: Yes, it was Liverpool, though T.P. O'Connor was actually first elected in 1885 and held the seat until his death in 1929, having been unopposed for reelection in all elections after 1910.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liverpool_Scotland_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

The banner was in many ways simply a vehicle for his continued election and had basically nothing to do with Irish Nationalsim after 1918, but it's a very amusing tidbit of history.

To the original post, I wouldn't really understand the point in doing that even if there was a possibility they could get votes, which is distinctly unrealistic.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #429 on: April 24, 2017, 03:38:42 PM »

Dumb question: wonder if any of the regional parties could keep a deposit in any constituency outside their home area. SNP outside of Scotland might have more appeal to some than other non-Tory parties.

So, wonder if this election result will inspire some to become more supportive of IRV systems over FPTP
SNP in Berwick - a town that's transferred between England and Scotland about 10 times in the last 1,000 years. SNP, also, in Liverpool would do quite well.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #430 on: April 24, 2017, 03:55:19 PM »

One thing I'll remind everyone of, though, is that landslides and the patterns seen in them are ephemeral. Labour won a majority of seats in Shropshire in 1997 and 2001 for instance (in fact in 2001 the Conservatives were reduced to just one seat in the county). In a way they are the weirdest and least socially reflective of elections.
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RBH
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« Reply #431 on: April 24, 2017, 04:10:42 PM »

Dumb question: wonder if any of the regional parties could keep a deposit in any constituency outside their home area. SNP outside of Scotland might have more appeal to some than other non-Tory parties.

So, wonder if this election result will inspire some to become more supportive of IRV systems over FPTP
SNP in Berwick - a town that's transferred between England and Scotland about 10 times in the last 1,000 years. SNP, also, in Liverpool would do quite well.

this might not hold in June, but Liverpool results seem to be Labour 75, then the other 25% split up, with the second place party at 10%. So there may some voters around there leaving Labour and not voting Tory
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vileplume
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« Reply #432 on: April 24, 2017, 07:02:21 PM »

Dumb question: wonder if any of the regional parties could keep a deposit in any constituency outside their home area. SNP outside of Scotland might have more appeal to some than other non-Tory parties.

So, wonder if this election result will inspire some to become more supportive of IRV systems over FPTP
SNP in Berwick - a town that's transferred between England and Scotland about 10 times in the last 1,000 years. SNP, also, in Liverpool would do quite well.

this might not hold in June, but Liverpool results seem to be Labour 75, then the other 25% split up, with the second place party at 10%. So there may some voters around there leaving Labour and not voting Tory

Liverpool hates the Tories in extra special way even more extremely than much of Scotland used to prior to their recent rise from the ashes. The Liverpool effect has badly damaged the Tories in nearby seats such as Wirral West, Wirral South, Wallasey, Sefton Central, West Lancashire etc. Thus if their recent polling results hold they should drag themselves into saved deposit territory in Walton and put on a few % in the others but don't expect miracles, Liverpool still despises the Tories.
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Intell
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« Reply #433 on: April 24, 2017, 07:28:32 PM »
« Edited: April 24, 2017, 07:31:41 PM by Intell »

Who exactly is still voting Labour in Scotland?

Me and my 89 year old gran, who's voting labour because "her father always did" (in fairness, as he was a miner, although he'd obviously vote UKIP now, she's probably right)

Are you saying this sarcastically or?
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Hnv1
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« Reply #434 on: April 25, 2017, 03:59:24 AM »

At last! Labour has a Brexit policy
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bore
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« Reply #435 on: April 25, 2017, 07:30:05 AM »

Who exactly is still voting Labour in Scotland?

Me and my 89 year old gran, who's voting labour because "her father always did" (in fairness, as he was a miner, although he'd obviously vote UKIP now, she's probably right)

Are you saying this sarcastically or?

I wish I were.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #436 on: April 25, 2017, 01:07:09 PM »

I see the people other than me have noted that David 'The Jews' Ward is indeed an endorsed Liberal Democrat candidate this election.
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joevsimp
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« Reply #437 on: April 25, 2017, 01:38:56 PM »
« Edited: April 25, 2017, 02:13:11 PM by joevsimp »

Dumb question: wonder if any of the regional parties could keep a deposit in any constituency outside their home area. SNP outside of Scotland might have more appeal to some than other non-Tory parties.

So, wonder if this election result will inspire some to become more supportive of IRV systems over FPTP
SNP in Berwick - a town that's transferred between England and Scotland about 10 times in the last 1,000 years. SNP, also, in Liverpool would do quite well.

The English Democrats have, on occasion, stood in Monmouth, Newport and the South East region for the Welsh Assembly, they lost their deposits and got outpolled by Plaid, in an area that some people insist on banging on about really being part of England

as for IRV, the referendum in 2011 was for AV which is the same thing, so that's out

for the conservatives to get 20 seats in Wales they need nine gains: the four remaining seats in the North East are easiest, then Bridgend, both Newport seats, and two out of Cardiff West, Cardiff South and Swansea West.

FWIW I think they will get as far as Newport and stall, leaving them just short of a majority, but will still overtake Labour (assuming that the latter will lose Cardiff Central and Ynys Mon)
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #438 on: April 25, 2017, 02:57:08 PM »

Dumb question: wonder if any of the regional parties could keep a deposit in any constituency outside their home area. SNP outside of Scotland might have more appeal to some than other non-Tory parties.

So, wonder if this election result will inspire some to become more supportive of IRV systems over FPTP
SNP in Berwick - a town that's transferred between England and Scotland about 10 times in the last 1,000 years. SNP, also, in Liverpool would do quite well.

The English Democrats have, on occasion, stood in Monmouth, Newport and the South East region for the Welsh Assembly, they lost their deposits and got outpolled by Plaid, in an area that some people insist on banging on about really being part of England

The English Democrats lose their deposits a lot in England, too, though. (Have they ever retained a deposit in a Westminster election?)
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Blair
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« Reply #439 on: April 25, 2017, 04:40:26 PM »

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-trade-unions-safe-vacant-labour-seats-carve-up-deal-tom-watson_uk_58ffb9dce4b0073d3e7a21c5?

For those who care about internal Labour Politics... this is probably best for all factions, and from my rough math doesn't radically alter the PLP. Good to see that Ellie Reeves could become my local MP
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parochial boy
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« Reply #440 on: April 25, 2017, 04:40:50 PM »


The English Democrats lose their deposits a lot in England, too, though. (Have they ever retained a deposit in a Westminster election?)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doncaster_North_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

In 2010, when they had an ED mayor. I don't know if there are any others

Re-the nationalists outside of their own countries, YouGov had a poll with the SNP at 11% in a hypothetical poll of the whole UK in the run up to 2015 election, at the time of peak Sturgeon.

That said, those sorts of "what if" type questions probably shouldn't be paid the slightest bit of attention as a general rule, although there are parts of the liberal-lefty cities lie Bristol or London where the SNP probably could get over 5%.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #441 on: April 25, 2017, 06:19:12 PM »

Kantar Public (formerly TNS; 20-24 Apr)
Con - 46%
Lab - 24%
Lib - 11%
UKIP - 8%
Grn - 4%
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jaichind
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« Reply #442 on: April 26, 2017, 05:50:40 AM »
« Edited: April 26, 2017, 06:58:06 AM by jaichind »

Evening Standard/Ipsos Poll

CON  - 49%
LAB  -  26%
LIB  -   13%
UKIP -    4% (!!!)

I think the last Evening Standard/Ipsos Poll back in March had UKIP at 6% only so perhaps this poll has an anti-UKIP bias.

Same poll had May leading Corbyn for leader 61 vs 23.  At her peak, Thatcher had 48 right before the 1983 landslide and at his peak Blair had 52 right before his 2001 landslide.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #443 on: April 26, 2017, 08:26:44 AM »

YouGov poll of Wales:

CON 40 (21 seats)
LAB 30 (15 seats)
PC 13 (3 seats)
LD 8 (1 seat)
UKIP 6
GRN 2

I think this poll is an outlier, where will the Tory gains come from ?
I find it hard to believe the Tories will make inroads in tribal labour areas in the valleys and south of Wales,
The Tories may gain few seats in the north, tho I'm skeptical of them gaining Wrexham. 

Last election Tories' margin over Labour in Wales was about 15% worse than the national average. Current polling has Tories ahead of Labour nationally by around 20-25%. It'd take quite a bit of resilience in Wales for them to not lead there right now, and this seems in line with a uniform swing.

I don't know much about Welsh politics to gauge how elastic it should be, but it doesn't seem crazy to me.

Whether the Tories can actually get this sort of landslide on election day is a different question, obviously.

To those who know more than me, is there any chance of a flow towards PC from Labour? In a situation where traditional Labour voters hate Corbyn but also the Tories I'd have guessed the existence of a credible alternative would hurt Labour more but maybe PC is unappealing to a lot of those people?
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Dmitri Covasku
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« Reply #444 on: April 26, 2017, 09:10:49 AM »

I see the Conservatives winning and holding their majority. However, I don't know if they'll keep their super majority, that remains to be seen.
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Hifly
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« Reply #445 on: April 26, 2017, 09:50:22 AM »

I see the Conservatives winning and holding their majority. However, I don't know if they'll keep their super majority, that remains to be seen.

Ah, a new American!

Keep their what?
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Vosem
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« Reply #446 on: April 26, 2017, 10:39:44 AM »

Lib Dem leader Tim Farron has kicked former MP, noted anti-Semite, and current nominee in Bradford East David Ward out of the party, so the Lib Dems will be picking a different candidate in that constituency. Good decision.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #447 on: April 26, 2017, 10:47:38 AM »

I see the Conservatives winning and holding their majority. However, I don't know if they'll keep their super majority, that remains to be seen.

In Britain it's actually called the 'rather smashing majority, old chap'. Do your research.
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #448 on: April 26, 2017, 11:21:47 AM »

I see the Conservatives winning and holding their majority. However, I don't know if they'll keep their super majority, that remains to be seen.

Ah yes, their incredibly super majority of 10: the smallest majority government since 1974.  If that's a super majority; what would you call Blair's majority in 1997?
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #449 on: April 26, 2017, 01:32:35 PM »

LibDem "the Jews" guy kicked out.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tim-farron-sacks-david-ward-antisemitism-lib-dem-candidate-bradford-east-a7703416.html
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