UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[bore]

I see the Conservatives winning and holding their majority. However, I don't know if they'll keep their super majority, that remains to be seen.

In Britain it's actually called the 'rather smashing majority, old chap'. Do your research.

Yeah, a super majority refers to the parliaments where the favourite alcoholic drink of a majority of MPs from Scotland is Tennent's Super.

[Clyde1998]

YouGov:
Con - 45% (-3)
Lab - 29% (+4)
Lib - 10% (-2)
UKIP - 7% (+2)
Oth - 9% (+1)

Gap narrowed by seven points since last week.

On top of this:
In hindsight was Britain right or wrong to vote to leave the EU?
Right - 43% (-3)
Wrong - 45% (+2)
Don't Know - 12% (+1)

This could get interesting going into the campaign...

[Former President tack50]

I see the Conservatives winning and holding their majority. However, I don't know if they'll keep their super majority, that remains to be seen.

Ah, a new American!

Keep their what?

Maybe by majority he means "Conservatives=largest party, but might be a hung parliament" and by super majority means "Conservatives have an overall majority"?

But considering the polling and the circumstances of the election that doesn't make any sense either.

[Barnes]

As predicted, Zac Goldsmith is back for Richmond Park--as a Tory again, of all things!

Oh, and the Lib Dems are standing down in Brighton Pavilion to support Lucas, presumably.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Greens standing down in Kemptown as well purportedly to make way for Labour.

[Tintrlvr]

Surely the only threat to the Greens in Brighton Pavilion is Labour, not the Conservatives, who were third in 2015 and have lost support in the seat at every election since 1979 (!). Why the Greens then want to ally with Labour is mystifying.

[Babeuf]

YouGov:
Con - 45% (-3)
Lab - 29% (+4)
Lib - 10% (-2)
UKIP - 7% (+2)
Oth - 9% (+1)

Gap narrowed by seven points since last week.

Could be just a regression to the mean but from afar it seems like Labour has been focusing on rolling out policy initiatives that should be popular each day of the campaign (more bank holidays, NHS staff pay raises) while May has been less active. So while the poll is still awful for Labour, I wouldn't be surprised if there has been some real movement.

As an aside, I'm disappointed in the decisions being made by the NEC in divvying up the retirees safe seats. High-profile Corbynites were passed over in Hull West today. Parachuting in left-faction members into safe seats was (imo) the best chance to ensure a left candidate reaches the ballot in the next leadership race, since I'm sure that there will be no moderates lending nominations like in 2015. As an aside, I imagine that the fear of Corbyn-friendly replacements was one of the reasons that there were so few Labour retirements this time around.

[Hnv1]

Bob Marshall defects to the LibDem

[Phony Moderate]

Oh FFS, can we just ban all non-British nationalities from this thread? If you're going to post about a week's old news about a defection involving a years-long retired MP that no one cares about, at least get his name right.

[Blair]

YouGov:
Con - 45% (-3)
Lab - 29% (+4)
Lib - 10% (-2)
UKIP - 7% (+2)
Oth - 9% (+1)

Gap narrowed by seven points since last week.

Could be just a regression to the mean but from afar it seems like Labour has been focusing on rolling out policy initiatives that should be popular each day of the campaign (more bank holidays, NHS staff pay raises) while May has been less active. So while the poll is still awful for Labour, I wouldn't be surprised if there has been some real movement.

As an aside, I'm disappointed in the decisions being made by the NEC in divvying up the retirees safe seats. High-profile Corbynites were passed over in Hull West today. Parachuting in left-faction members into safe seats was (imo) the best chance to ensure a left candidate reaches the ballot in the next leadership race, since I'm sure that there will be no moderates lending nominations like in 2015. As an aside, I imagine that the fear of Corbyn-friendly replacements was one of the reasons that there were so few Labour retirements this time around.

Yes- moderates like Harriet Harman, Margret Hodge etc where going to stand down in 2020 but have stood just for that reason. People in the PLP are pissed at Alan Johnson for stepping down (and for not standing for the leadership in 2010/2014/2015)

The Corbynites (and I mean those directly from the leaders office) would need to win every single selection to have a 100% chance of getting on the ballot. What is happening is that the unions (Unite/Unison/GMB) are dividing up the seats between them- which is leading to generally hackish, and lack luster people getting safe seats. Besides the Corbynites being picked where crap

For what it's worth Progress (and the actual blairites, of which they are about 30 in the PLP) are likely to do just as badly as the Corbynites.

TL;DR: Like all things in Labour when the unions work together on a cause they generally get it

[joevsimp]

Oh FFS, can we just ban all non-British nationalities from this thread? If you're going to post about a week's old news about a defection involving a years-long retired MP that no one cares about, at least get his name right.

Might have happenned a week ago but it went under the radar a bit. I only saw five mins ago when NS tweeted a link to this piece he's written for them.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/04/former-mp-bob-marshall-andrews-why-i-m-leaving-labour-and-joining-lib-dems

Very interesting, even if it is full of the vilest heresies about the past, present and future (or lack thereof)  of the Labour party.

[Blair]

The only thing I know about Bob Marshall-Andrews is that my soon to be retired MP Jim Dowd punched him in 2007

[Clyde1998]

The first Scottish leaders debate has been announced. It will be broadcast on STV on the 24th May between 20:30 and 22:00. STV News article.

It will be between Nicola Sturgeon (SNP), Ruth Davidson (Con), Kezia Dugdale (Lab) and Willie Rennie (Lib). There will be no representative from the Greens or UKIP.

It seems likely that this won't be the only Scottish debate, as I can see the BBC doing one.

[ChrisDR68]

Quite a startling article from the Guardian:

Lib Dems shouldn't count on Remain votes - the data looks bleak

Conventional wisdom suggests the Tories could bleed Remain votes to the Lib Dems. Our detailed data analysis suggests this idea could be very wrong indeed



Back in 1997, when New Labour won the general election in a historic landslide, Professor Anthony King described the exit poll as being like “an asteroid hitting the planet and destroying practically all life on Earth.” That election saw Labour win 418 seats to the Conservatives’ 165, while the Liberal Democrats gained 46 seats.

Our model sees the Tories on 422 seats, with Labour reduced to just 150, and the Lib Dems declining from 9 to 6. The Conservative majority would be north of 190. Labour would be wiped out beyond what most people are currently predicting. Leadership candidates like Clive Lewis would no longer be leadership candidates, because they would no longer be MPs.

The Lib Dems could lose a third of their MPs even after gains in places like Cambridge, with seats like Carshalton and Wallington, Richmond Park and Southport especially vulnerable. The danger in these seats is pretty clear. In Carshalton, Tom Brake won a majority of 1,510 in 2015. If a fraction of the town’s 7,000 UKIP voters return to the Tories, that majority will be wiped out. Southport is almost identically poised.

The picture for Labour could in fact be worse than our model suggests – data from both ICM and the British Election Study data indicate that Labour is actually under-performing its polls in Labour seats. The Mirror quote a Labour source suggesting that private polling puts the party as low as 20% nationally. 150 MP may yet prove wildly optimistic.

But the bigger surprise is the lack of any real sign of a Lib Dem recovery. For months now, there’s been a growing consensus that the party are on the verge of a comeback. Try as we might, we could find little evidence of this in recent polls.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/apr/27/lib-dems-shouldnt-count-on-remain-votes-the-data-looks-bleak

[Clyde1998]

There are a lot of soft and floating voters in this election,

From canvassing the past few weeks, i've noticed the following:
- UKIP voters are swinging heavily toward the tories
- Soft Tory and Labour Remain voters very tempted to swing to the Lib dems
- Labour Leave voters are turned off by Corbyn and the party's mixed messages about brexit

2010 Labour voters that switched to UKIP in 2015, are swinging toward the Conservatives this time round.
Those voters cost Ed Ball his seat, Allison Seabeck her seat in plymouth, Liz evans in wales, etc in 2015.

UKIP won 3.8 Million votes in 2015 with 12.6%, half of those voters according to polls switched to the tories.
Conservatives won 11.3 Million votes in 2015, so if the polls are right, tories are gonna win 13.3 Million with 43%

I would really like to know how labour would do tho, i dont think they'd get less then 27% of the vote.

It seems that my theory that Labour voters moving to UKIP in 2015 would be a gateway drug for voting Conservative is coming true.

Where have you been canvasing? Any sign that things like the NHS and education may swing voters or is it overwhelmingly Brexit?

[afleitch]

The first Scottish leaders debate has been announced. It will be broadcast on STV on the 24th May between 20:30 and 22:00. STV News article.

It will be between Nicola Sturgeon (SNP), Ruth Davidson (Con), Kezia Dugdale (Lab) and Willie Rennie (Lib). There will be no representative from the Greens or UKIP.

It seems likely that this won't be the only Scottish debate, as I can see the BBC doing one.

Apparently 3 unionists (one with less seats at Holyrood than the excluded Greens) v 1 nationalist is fair and balanced.

[Clyde1998]

The first Scottish leaders debate has been announced. It will be broadcast on STV on the 24th May between 20:30 and 22:00. STV News article.

It will be between Nicola Sturgeon (SNP), Ruth Davidson (Con), Kezia Dugdale (Lab) and Willie Rennie (Lib). There will be no representative from the Greens or UKIP.

It seems likely that this won't be the only Scottish debate, as I can see the BBC doing one.

Apparently 3 unionists (one with less seats at Holyrood than the excluded Greens) v 1 nationalist is fair and balanced.

They always did that on Question Time, apparently it's fair because they have someone from different parties . Could cause a split in the pro-union vote, while keeping the pro-independence vote together, which would harm the Tories in Scotland.

I expect there will be at least one debate in Scotland that will include UKIP and the Greens.

[rob in cal]

   As we approach the French runoff election will opposition parties attempt to tie PM May to Marine Le Pen?  On immigration they both have the "tens of thousands" policy, with May saying net annual migration should be in the "tens of thousands" and Le Pen the stricter "ten thousand" policy. On EU policy May is doing what Le Pen would probably want to do as President.

[afleitch]

Also the YouGov poll was asking people if they were Christian or had no religion.  Christians gave the Tories a 35 point lead and None gave them a 2 point lead.

And also 74% including 63% of Christians don't think gay sex is a sin. Which is good to know.

[Silent Hunter]

Problem is that while Labour's policies test well, the popularity of Corbyn is just that bad. In fact, there was a poll that found said policies actually were less popular when people were told they were Labour policies.

[MAINEiac4434]

Problem is that while Labour's policies test well, the popularity of Corbyn is just that bad. In fact, there was a poll that found said policies actually were less popular when people were told they were Labour policies.

Apprently polls for "The Labour Party" were two points higher than polls for "Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party."

[Clyde1998]

https://stv.tv/news/scotland/1386953-msps-on-alert-as-white-powder-sent-to-politicians/

STV News are reporting that 'white powers' has been sent to the constituency of office SNP MP John Nicolson (East Dunbartonshire), the Municipal Buildings of Angus Council (SNP-run) and the SNP headquarters in Edinburgh. Suggestions are that it's linked with the General Election.

[afleitch]

https://stv.tv/news/scotland/1386953-msps-on-alert-as-white-powder-sent-to-politicians/

STV News are reporting that 'white powers' has been sent to the constituency of office SNP MP John Nicolson (East Dunbartonshire), the Municipal Buildings of Angus Council (SNP-run) and the SNP headquarters in Edinburgh. Suggestions are that it's linked with the General Election.

[Barnes]

Paul Nuttall will contest a yet to be revealed seat.

[Blair]

Paul Nuttall will contest a yet to be revealed seat.

Hearing it's either Stoke (lol), Leigh (even more lol) or Hartlepool

Problem is that while Labour's policies test well, the popularity of Corbyn is just that bad. In fact, there was a poll that found said policies actually were less popular when people were told they were Labour policies.

Saw it described on twitter as 'do you like having sex?... 'Yes'... 'do you want to have sex with that old man?... 'no'

It's worth noting IIRC that in the 80's Labour policies generally won in the opinion polls