UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Clyde1998]

Paul Nuttall will contest a yet to be revealed seat.

Will he have lived there for years?

[Babeuf]

YouGov poll of Scotland, 24-27 April.

SNP: 41% (-6)
CON: 28% (+1)
LAB: 18% (+3)
LDEM: 7% (+3)

Source: https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/857733753292107777

They also have independence at:
Yes: 45% (+1)
No: 55% (-1)

At least according to this poll, it's notable that the SNP is starting to fall below the Yes % rather than being a bit above it (they ran 5.3 points ahead of Yes in their 2015 landslide).

[Hnv1]

https://stv.tv/news/scotland/1386953-msps-on-alert-as-white-powder-sent-to-politicians/

STV News are reporting that 'white powers' has been sent to the constituency of office SNP MP John Nicolson (East Dunbartonshire), the Municipal Buildings of Angus Council (SNP-run) and the SNP headquarters in Edinburgh. Suggestions are that it's linked with the General Election.

White powder in Scotland...I wonder which druggie lost his wee heroine bag

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov poll of Scotland, 24-27 April.

SNP: 41% (-6)
CON: 28% (+1)
LAB: 18% (+3)
LDEM: 7% (+3)

Source: https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/857733753292107777

They also have independence at:
Yes: 45% (+1)
No: 55% (-1)

At least according to this poll, it's notable that the SNP is starting to fall below the Yes % rather than being a bit above it (they ran 5.3 points ahead of Yes in their 2015 landslide).

Leaders' ratings:

May - 37/51
Corbyn - 18/70
Sturgeon - 47/45
Dugdale - 22/51
Davidson - 43/36

[Silent Hunter]

18/70 in Scotland. Oh wow.

[Phony Moderate]

Ed Balls

[ApatheticAustrian]

18/70 in Scotland. Oh wow.

what are those numbers?

[Silent Hunter]

Approval/disapproval, I think.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Approval/disapproval, I think.

re: the national government?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Approval/disapproval, I think.

re: the national government?

No, Corbyn

[ApatheticAustrian]

Approval/disapproval, I think.

re: the national government?

No, Corbyn

i am stupid.

thanks!

[Clyde1998]

The thing with these leaders ratings is that it's always asked as:

Theresa May as Prime Minister, Nicola Strugeon as First Minister, Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader, Ruth Davidson as Scottish Conservative leader, etc.

There's a difference between how well someone is doing leading their party than how well someone is doing running the country, which sort of makes the figures incomparable with each other.

[Silent Hunter]

Mind you, if you don't think they're doing a good job in their current role, you're hardly going to vote to promote them.

[Clyde1998]

Mind you, if you don't think they're doing a good job in their current role, you're hardly going to vote to promote them.

Of course, but generally you'd think that politicians would score better as leader of their party than as leader of the country - as there's less to scrutinise party leaders over. That doesn't bode well for Corbyn.

[jaichind]

What is interesting about this election is that for the first time the CON vote share will most likely be above LAB + LIB vote shares combined.  I do not think this has even taken place in the modern era.  The only exception seems to be 1955 but LIB contested so few seats that year I do not really count that.

[Gary J]

What is interesting about this election is that for the first time the CON vote share will most likely be above LAB + LIB vote shares combined.  I do not think this has even taken place in the modern era.  The only exception seems to be 1955 but LIB contested so few seats that year I do not really count that.

I would say the modern political era starts in 1922, when the Labour-Conservative two party syste, became firmly established.

The Conservatives outpolled Labour and Liberals combined in 1931. Admittedly that is a special case, as the Conservatives and Liberals were both supporting the National government and the Labour Party was split.

Again in 1935 the Conservatives outpolled the other two. The Liberal Party was no longer supporting the National government by that point.

British Electoral Facts 1832-2012 does not suggest that 1955 was an exception, C 49.3%, Lab 47.4%, Lib 2.8%.

[afleitch]

Sikh's got their man, literally, in Slough's Labour candidate.

[IceAgeComing]

I don't think you can date "modern politics" as starting any time before 1945: before that the party system had been in flu for twenty years - 1935 is when lots of the patterns that would become established for many years first appeared, for example.  You can't look at the 1922 and 1923 election results and say that the third place position of the liberals was "firmly established" - in 1922 a split Liberal party (the Lloyd George liberals who'd supported the 1918 coalition stood as "National Liberals" in this election although it's not always clear which party individual candidates supported and sources are mixed - some are claimed by both, others by neither) only got 30 seats and 2% less than Labour, in 1923 the margin was even closer.  You could claim 1924 or 1929 but I'd argue that the National Government complicates things - certainly the Liberals did a whole lot worse after then; for whatever reason.

[jaichind]

If you use the current projection of (which I agree could be exaggerated)

http://principalfish.co.uk/electionmaps/

which has vote share projection of each seat.  And then assume that a grand anti-CON coalition is formed which merges the votes of LAB LIB Green PC and SNP into one anti-CON opposition candidate, CON would still win at least 325 seats for a majority since its votes are so well concentrated in enough areas.s

[Silent Hunter]

Andrew Turner (Con- Isle of Wight) steps down after homophobic remark to A Level politics class

[jaichind]

If you use the current projections of

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

Which has seat by seat projections and assume a Grand Coalition of LAB LIB Green SNP and PC, CON still wins 341 seats.  The current model has CON picking up 77 seats for 408.  In a Grand coalition situation CON would still gain 19 seats but lose 9 current seats for a total of 341.

I am pretty sure in 1983 if LAB, LIB/SDP, SNP and PC formed an alliance and all the votes perfectly transferred CON would not win a majority.  Just like in 1997 if CON, LIB, SNP and PC formed an alliance (assume for now this is even possible) and all the votes perfectly transferred I do not believe LAB would win a majority.

[Vosem]

Are terrible inaccurate constituency polls not going to be a feature of this race? I really enjoyed them in 2015 as they allowed me to talk about individual constituencies and pretend I had a clue as to what was going on there

[Clyde1998]

Are terrible inaccurate constituency polls not going to be a feature of this race? I really enjoyed them in 2015 as they allowed me to talk about individual constituencies and pretend I had a clue as to what was going on there

It was only Ashcroft that was doing them publicly. I doubt that they will happen again in this election, as most were done before the final few months of the campaign, IIRC. They'd be great to see again though - particularly in constituencies where the Lib Dems could do well, UKIP did well in 2015 and in marginal constituencies.

[bore]

Are terrible inaccurate constituency polls not going to be a feature of this race? I really enjoyed them in 2015 as they allowed me to talk about individual constituencies and pretend I had a clue as to what was going on there

My Gran who lives in Bury South, but just over the border from Bury North, got a phone call from pollsters asking her about Bury North, so they still happen, but I imagine it was just an internal.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Nearly Half of all Labour voters may desert the party


Wow if this is true