UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[jimrtex]

Survation for Stop Brexit Alliance (SBA)/Kensington Constituency Poll (25-27 Apr)
Poll 1
Con - 46% (-6)
Lab - 29% (-2)
Lib - 17% (+11)
Grn - 7% (+2)
UKIP - 1% (-4)
3% swing from Con to Lab

Poll 2
Con - 32% (-20)
SBA - 28% (+28)
Lab - 23% (-8)
Lib - 9% (+3)
Grn - 5% (N/C)
UKIP - 2% (-3)
24% swing from Con to SBA

Is this a new political party?

They must be; can't find anything out about them. I would imagine that the Lib Dems would stand aside for them if they're that close to the Conservatives. They may potentially stand in other seats that voted remain overwhelmingly that the Conservatives hold as well. Could make it interesting.

The "Alliance EPP: European People’s Party UK" has previously registered descriptions of Stop Brexit,
No Brexit, and Remain in Europe; and has this week registered Remain and Your hope: Europe.

This might be who commissioned the poll, particularly if they were trying to squeeze the LibDems.

[ObserverIE]

Survation for Stop Brexit Alliance (SBA)/Kensington Constituency Poll (25-27 Apr)
Poll 1
Con - 46% (-6)
Lab - 29% (-2)
Lib - 17% (+11)
Grn - 7% (+2)
UKIP - 1% (-4)
3% swing from Con to Lab

Poll 2
Con - 32% (-20)
SBA - 28% (+28)
Lab - 23% (-8)
Lib - 9% (+3)
Grn - 5% (N/C)
UKIP - 2% (-3)
24% swing from Con to SBA

Is this a new political party?

They must be; can't find anything out about them. I would imagine that the Lib Dems would stand aside for them if they're that close to the Conservatives. They may potentially stand in other seats that voted remain overwhelmingly that the Conservatives hold as well. Could make it interesting.

I think it's organised by John Stevens, a former Conservative MEP. I'll defer to Hifly who knows the area best of all, but my understanding is that the local Tory MP (Victoria Borwick) is a hard-line Brexiter, whereas in other similar constituencies the MP was either a remainer (Battersea, Chelsea/Fulham, Cities of London/Westminster, Putney, Wimbledon) or is vulnerable to the Lib Dems (Kingston/Surbiton, Richmond Park) or both (Twickenham).

[TheSaint250]

How good are Paul Nuttall's chances of winning in the Boston constituency?

(I'm guessing next to none, but I want to know what you guys say)

[Vosem]

How good are Paul Nuttall's chances of winning in the Boston constituency?

(I'm guessing next to none, but I want to know what you guys say)

The fact that UKIP seems to have lost about half their support from 2015 directly to the Conservatives (if not more), and that in 2015 they were 10 points behind here, suggests that it's unlikely. It's as good a place as any to make a last stand, though -- at 76% Leave, it is the most Leave constituency in the nation.

I don't think UKIP is necessary dead politically; there'll always be an audience for a right-wing protest party and they'll probably surge again if a Breenter government ever comes to power, which is what I suspect will happen once the Conservatives lose (once Labor does lose their heavily-Leave northern seats it'd be illogical for them not to adopt that plank unless they continue to be led by Corbynistas, and the Lib Dems are pretty much already there). But they're going to take a beating this time around because everything they've spent the last decade calling for has been adopted by a popular Conservative government, several of their most prominent names have abandoned them, and they're leader isn't as well-known or effective as Farage was.

[Hifly]

Survation for Stop Brexit Alliance (SBA)/Kensington Constituency Poll (25-27 Apr)
Poll 1
Con - 46% (-6)
Lab - 29% (-2)
Lib - 17% (+11)
Grn - 7% (+2)
UKIP - 1% (-4)
3% swing from Con to Lab

Poll 2
Con - 32% (-20)
SBA - 28% (+28)
Lab - 23% (-8)
Lib - 9% (+3)
Grn - 5% (N/C)
UKIP - 2% (-3)
24% swing from Con to SBA

Is this a new political party?

They must be; can't find anything out about them. I would imagine that the Lib Dems would stand aside for them if they're that close to the Conservatives. They may potentially stand in other seats that voted remain overwhelmingly that the Conservatives hold as well. Could make it interesting.

I think it's organised by John Stevens, a former Conservative MEP. I'll defer to Hifly who knows the area best of all, but my understanding is that the local Tory MP (Victoria Borwick) is a hard-line Brexiter, whereas in other similar constituencies the MP was either a remainer (Battersea, Chelsea/Fulham, Cities of London/Westminster, Putney, Wimbledon) or is vulnerable to the Lib Dems (Kingston/Surbiton, Richmond Park) or both (Twickenham).

Yep. Borwick has caused quite some aggrievement in the Conservative Association through her Brexit vote; she had indicated she would vote to Remain at her selection in 2015 and then practiced a full 360 with all accompanying acrobatic maneuvers. She has the additional problem of having her foot in her mouth most of the time and this is reflected in her performance.
She was not re-selected unanimously at the Association meeting which took place this week.

The fact is, if an Anti-Brexit Alliance candidate could ever win a Tory seat against multiparty opposition, it would be in Kensington. Loyalty to the Conservative Party is not through tradition and establishment but rather, taxes and markets. It was 70% remain for a reason: the majority of the population is foreign-born, it's the Centre of the French community in London, the preferred abode of international bank directors et. al.

As already observed, the neighboring seats of Chelsea and Fulham and Cities of London & Westminster have Tory MPs who represent their values accordingly. Kensington does not.

[Vosem]

So is John Stevens planning an independent ("Stop Brexit") candidacy in Kensington and releasing polling hoping that other parties stand aside for him, or hoping to get their voters to vote tactically? The Liberal Democrats are apparently not great fans of his since he left their party in 2010 to become an independent.

[Tintrlvr]

So is John Stevens planning an independent ("Stop Brexit") candidacy in Kensington and releasing polling hoping that other parties stand aside for him, or hoping to get their voters to vote tactically? The Liberal Democrats are apparently not great fans of his since he left their party in 2010 to become an independent.

He left the Lib Dems because he wanted to stand against Bercow, who was running for re-election as Speaker, and the Lib Dems wanted to maintain the tradition of not standing against the Speaker. I don't think there is animosity there. That said, it seems too late in the game for him to run as a Lib Dem in Kensington as they already have their own candidate.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So how likely is it that Theresa May outperforms Blair's 1997 numbers?

[jimrtex]

Survation for Stop Brexit Alliance (SBA)/Kensington Constituency Poll (25-27 Apr)
Poll 1
Con - 46% (-6)
Lab - 29% (-2)
Lib - 17% (+11)
Grn - 7% (+2)
UKIP - 1% (-4)
3% swing from Con to Lab

Poll 2
Con - 32% (-20)
SBA - 28% (+28)
Lab - 23% (-8)
Lib - 9% (+3)
Grn - 5% (N/C)
UKIP - 2% (-3)
24% swing from Con to SBA

Is this a new political party?

They must be; can't find anything out about them. I would imagine that the Lib Dems would stand aside for them if they're that close to the Conservatives. They may potentially stand in other seats that voted remain overwhelmingly that the Conservatives hold as well. Could make it interesting.

I think it's organised by John Stevens, a former Conservative MEP. I'll defer to Hifly who knows the area best of all, but my understanding is that the local Tory MP (Victoria Borwick) is a hard-line Brexiter, whereas in other similar constituencies the MP was either a remainer (Battersea, Chelsea/Fulham, Cities of London/Westminster, Putney, Wimbledon) or is vulnerable to the Lib Dems (Kingston/Surbiton, Richmond Park) or both (Twickenham).

It is a bit of a push poll.

Kensington poll

Respondents were asked the conventional party question and then were asked:

"Please imagine that another candidate was standing who was solely committed to stopping Brexit, and was trying to form a "Stop Brexit Alliance" within London, for which candidate or party would you be most likely to vote for in Kensington?"

The poll shows 14/46 of Tories, 6/29 of Labour, 8/17 of Lib Dems, and 2/7 of Greens defecting to the only party mentioned in the question.

The poll also had a question on another Remain/Brexit referendum. If this were asked before the party question, it might also condition voters to respond in a different way.

[Silent Hunter]

So how likely is it that Theresa May outperforms Blair's 1997 numbers?

I'd say 80/20 personally in terms of percentage.

[Blair]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTWm0s7ZwDY

[Silent Hunter]

Yet they mostly certainly haven't.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there a consensus on here that the Conservatives under PM Theresa May are on the brink of their own version of the 1997 general election?

Not a relevant comparison; a completely different situation. The correct points of comparison would be to elections in the 1980s or (if it gets really bad) the 1930s. Or if it is less bad then to the 1950s, I guess.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yet they mostly certainly haven't.

I don't know, public services improved a lot in response to the massive injection of £££ that followed. And so on. It's just that it turns out that history doesn't come to a.

[thumb21]

So how likely is it that Theresa May outperforms Blair's 1997 numbers?

In terms of the popular vote, she will probably do better than Blair but in terms of seats, probably not.

[Barnes]

The Labour NEC has denied Simon Danczuk, the controversial MP for Rochdale, preselection for any seat in the country.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I have recently seen Labour gain some slight traction in YouGov polls, much to the delight of British twitter. Should this at all concern May and the Tories, is YouGov trash, or is it just noise and it will soon subside?

[MAINEiac4434]

I have recently seen Labour gain some slight traction in YouGov polls, much to the delight of British twitter. Should this at all concern May and the Tories, is YouGov trash, or is it just noise and it will soon subside?

Labour's been polling around 30% recently, which is what they got in 2015. Still miles behind the Tories, though. I think it's just noise. Corbyn and Labour have hit the campaign trail running while May's started with more of a thud.

[Silent Hunter]

Yet they mostly certainly haven't.

I don't know, public services improved a lot in response to the massive injection of £££ that followed. And so on. It's just that it turns out that history doesn't come to a.

I was referring to the global situation in general. Can't say Syria's improved.

[Silent Hunter]

Who hear saw Diane Abbott's car crash of an interview with Nick Ferrari this morning?

[Phony Moderate]

Who hear saw Diane Abbott's car crash of an interview with Nick Ferrari this morning?

Luckily for us, not most people.

[Silent Hunter]

Who hear saw Diane Abbott's car crash of an interview with Nick Ferrari this morning?

Luckily for us, not most people.

It's on the LBC Facebook page and also the Daily Mail website now. The latter is the most read news source in the UK.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yeah, poor Diane is probably a greater liability to us than Jezza himself.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yikes! That Dianne Abbott interview was a blessing directly from heaven for the Tories.

[DC Al Fine]

Diane Abbott claims her gaffes this morning "reduces the media credibility"

Lol!