UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[MAINEiac4434]

Professor Steve Fisher of university of Oxford English local elections seats forecast from polls
Con +430
Lab -315
LD -30

Unsurprising for Labour, but surprising for the Lib dems.

Vote splitting between LibDems and Labour?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (-)
LAB: 28% (-)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 8% (-)
GRN: 4% (-)
(ICMResearch / 28 Apr - 02 May)

Jeremy Corbyn as Leader of the Opposition has been
Effective: 13%
Ineffective: 69%
(YouGov / 27 - 28 Apr)


Theresa May as Prime Minister has been
Effective: 46%
Ineffective: 34%
(YouGov / 27 - 28 Apr)

As I have suspected, there is no "Labour Surge." It's just YouGov's poor polling.

[thumb21]

I have recently seen Labour gain some slight traction in YouGov polls, much to the delight of British twitter. Should this at all concern May and the Tories, is YouGov trash, or is it just noise and it will soon subside?

Its to be expected that polls tighten a bit as an election approaches. The Conservatives have nothing wrong about.

[thumb21]

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (-)
LAB: 28% (-)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 8% (-)
GRN: 4% (-)
(ICMResearch / 28 Apr - 02 May)

Jeremy Corbyn as Leader of the Opposition has been
Effective: 13%
Ineffective: 69%
(YouGov / 27 - 28 Apr)

Theresa May as Prime Minister has been
Effective: 46%
Ineffective: 34%
(YouGov / 27 - 28 Apr)

Interesting how UKIP and the Libs are tied for PV 3rd place here. The polls overall seem to show a slight dip for the LibDems. The pipe dream of some that the Liberals will replace Labour as the opposition seems to be evaporating.

[Clyde1998]

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (-)
LAB: 28% (-)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 8% (-)
GRN: 4% (-)
(ICMResearch / 28 Apr - 02 May)

Jeremy Corbyn as Leader of the Opposition has been
Effective: 13%
Ineffective: 69%
(YouGov / 27 - 28 Apr)

Theresa May as Prime Minister has been
Effective: 46%
Ineffective: 34%
(YouGov / 27 - 28 Apr)

Interesting how UKIP and the Libs are tied for PV 3rd place here. The polls overall seem to show a slight dip for the LibDems. The pipe dream of some that the Liberals will replace Labour as the opposition seems to be evaporating.

I think it's been more of a question of whether the Lib Dems would overtake the SNP in terms of seats. Right now, that seems unlikely, but it's possible that the national vote share figures aren't showing that there may be individual constituency results that could see the Lib Dems manage this.

[Clyde1998]

The thing is she said £300k in the interview when she meant £300m, while that's not a major error she failed to correct the error she made. Saying "about £80m" seems to be just a number that she plucked from nowhere. I don't think she would be a good Home Secretary, tbh - even before this.

[MM876]

As someone who doesn't really understand UK politics, could someone explain to me why Corbyn has been floundering so badly since he got elected?

[SPQR]

Who hear saw Diane Abbott's car crash of an interview with Nick Ferrari this morning?

Luckily for us, not most people.

It's on the LBC Facebook page and also the Daily Mail website now. The latter is the most read news source in the UK.

And Diane continues with Piers Morgen .......
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwlfPo2eTfg

And the LBC interview
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lbTIvXN_lcE


And people wonder why Labour is in disarray .......

Diane's gaffe is all over 

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2017-39775693

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3459712/excruciating-moment-diane-abbot-squirms-as-she-is-made-to-listen-to-her-car-crash-interview-where-she-proposed-paying-cops-just-30-a-year/

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4465772/Diane-Abbott-mocked-Twitter-users-memes.html

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2017/may/02/diane-abbotts-error-filled-lbc-interview-on-police-funding-video

Oh God, that was painful to hear.

[thumb21]

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (-)
LAB: 28% (-)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 8% (-)
GRN: 4% (-)
(ICMResearch / 28 Apr - 02 May)

Jeremy Corbyn as Leader of the Opposition has been
Effective: 13%
Ineffective: 69%
(YouGov / 27 - 28 Apr)

Theresa May as Prime Minister has been
Effective: 46%
Ineffective: 34%
(YouGov / 27 - 28 Apr)

Interesting how UKIP and the Libs are tied for PV 3rd place here. The polls overall seem to show a slight dip for the LibDems. The pipe dream of some that the Liberals will replace Labour as the opposition seems to be evaporating.

I think it's been more of a question of whether the Lib Dems would overtake the SNP in terms of seats. Right now, that seems unlikely, but it's possible that the national vote share figures aren't showing that there may be individual constituency results that could see the Lib Dems manage this.

It could be the case. I assume what you mean by this is Conservative Remain seats getting sniped by the Lib Dems like in Richmond Park? I think that this phenomenon is over hyped. The Lib-Dems won Richmond park by a small margin in a by election and by elections are typically worse for the governing party than general elections and that was against a strong Brexiteer - and the Greens stepped aside. The Lib Dems are targetting a niche of voters so I think they severely restrict their path to third place again anyway.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

As someone who doesn't really understand UK politics, could someone explain to me why Corbyn has been floundering so badly since he got elected?

Because he's a nutter.

[vileplume]

As someone who doesn't really understand UK politics, could someone explain to me why Corbyn has been floundering so badly since he got elected?

Well for starters Corbyn and his inner circle's past associations with very unpleasant individuals and extremist/terrorist groups such as the IRA, Hamas and Militant Tendency alone basically guarantees his unpopularity with virtually every swing voter. This coupled with things like refusing to say whether the police should be able to shoot an armed terrorist, wanting to scrap the nuclear deterrent but keep the submarines (essentially wasting millions of pounds of public money on empty vessels), dithering on Brexit in a way that pleases nobody, having no media strategy (traingate etc.), Corbyn having no leadership skills whatsoever and being an atrocious public speaker, having a broadly talentless gaffe prone shadow cabinet (McDonnell, Abbott, Thornberry), McDonnell quoting Chairman Mao in the commons and throwing his 'little red book' at the Tories (Abbott several years ago also said Mao did more good than harm), heaping praise on Castro, the party being hopelessly divided, just generally being utterly useless and incompetent etc. (I could go on for hours) leads to an approval rating in the low teens and disapproval sometimes approaching 80%.

The Tories themselves are far from perfect and have had numerous gaffes and missteps but given how useless Corbyn's Labour are and that their reputation with the public is rock bottom the Tories can get away with it. For example a couple of months back the Tories u-turned on a proposed national insurance rise for the self employed within a week of it being announced which should in normal times have been utterly humiliating for them but Corbyn and Labour couldn't land so much as a scratch on them.

[vileplume]

Yeah, poor Diane is probably a greater liability to us than Jezza himself.

A reminder of another one of Diane's greatest hits:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uB4o5n2EGyA

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Labour on full suicide mode, again.

[parochial boy]

Well for starters Corbyn and his inner circle's past associations with very unpleasant individuals and extremist/terrorist groups such as the IRA, Hamas and Militant Tendency alone basically guarantees his unpopularity with virtually every swing voter.

To be honest, I think this might not have as much as an impact as all of your points about Corbyn and his leadership team's incompetency.

Not to say that it isn't something that would turn voters against him, but he has been so useless that the Tories haven't even really needed to call attention to it.

[OSR stands with Israel]

lol: http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-must-absolutely-remain-labour-leader-should-he-lose-the-election-says-ally-chris-williamson_uk_59089d43e4b0bb2d0871f129

[vileplume]

lol: http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/jeremy-corbyn-must-absolutely-remain-labour-leader-should-he-lose-the-election-says-ally-chris-williamson_uk_59089d43e4b0bb2d0871f129

Chris Williamson is absolutely awful, deluded, arrogant pr*ck. Hopefully the good people of Derby North, who booted him out last time, will again deliver him the crushing defeat he so richly deserves (hopefully by a huge margin). I don't know what Labour was thinking reselecting him there in the first place though at least they haven't parachuted him into a safe seat where he'd definitely be returned to parliament instead of Derby North where he'll very likely lose.

Also seen as the Tory majority is 41 votes it is very likely that it was Chris Williamson with his negative personal vote cost Labour the seat in the first place.

[vileplume]

Well for starters Corbyn and his inner circle's past associations with very unpleasant individuals and extremist/terrorist groups such as the IRA, Hamas and Militant Tendency alone basically guarantees his unpopularity with virtually every swing voter.

To be honest, I think this might not have as much as an impact as all of your points about Corbyn and his leadership team's incompetency.

Not to say that it isn't something that would turn voters against him, but he has been so useless that the Tories haven't even really needed to call attention to it.

I do tend to agree actually which is why all the whinging we hear about the media being nasty to Corbyn is so ludicrous, they haven't even really gone after his weakest point at all (perhaps to ensure he stayed Labour leader...?). Parliament has just been dissolved and the official campaign has just begun so I would be surprised if the Tory press didn't swing into full attack mode in the coming weeks and it's likely we'll be hearing a lot more about Hamas, IRA, Militant etc.

[parochial boy]

FT: EU Raises Brexit Bill to 100 Billion Euros.

From Ian Dale "EU says Britain must pay for entire EU budget until 2030"

That would be like 2 trillion Euros. Of course, no-one ever seems to mind the the Tories making sh!t up.

[ApatheticAustrian]

britain is going to pay the money it owes....60 bn, i guess, the rest is bargaining.

[Zinneke]

FT: EU Raises Brexit Bill to 100 Billion Euros.

From Ian Dale "Britain must pay for entire EU budget until 2030"

This is getting bloody ridiculous!!
Theresa May doesn't need to campaign, Brussels are doing a good job for her.

No, FT are doing a good job for her.

"Brussels" doesn't give a sh**t about the election, even less so than the Greek referendum.

[Blair]

Felt sorry for Dianne- she usually comes out with utter sh**t, but the problem this time was she had a meltdown afterwards! It managed to break through as well- as I saw non-political types talking about it on facebook.

Labour's big problem is that we only have about 5 people in the cabinet who can do media appearances.

Tories have got a new poster out today; I'll try and find the image, but it's nothing too shocking

[jaichind]

Panelbase poll

CON       47   (-2)
LAB       30  (+3)
LIB        10  (nc)
UKIP        5 (nc)

[ApatheticAustrian]

If I was to advise Theresa May, id tell her to walk, those unelected unaccountable Eurocrats, Dont want a deal, they just wanna punish Britain and make a lesson out us.

everyone in EU leadership got elected directly or indirectly, like in any other system.

and....just curious...what happens after britain is walking?

[ApatheticAustrian]

no deal isn't great and will have consequences on both the UK and EU nations. However, you can't do a deal with people that aren't willing to do a deal, and that's how Brussels are coming across.

oh, it's totally simple:

cameron screwed this whole thing, cause he never ever really was able to make a good bargain with us, since he had decided to do the referendum anyway....he would have gotten a better deal, if he had proposed, that the referendum would only happen if the negotiations were failing.


there are atm multiple levels to deal with the EU.

non-members without any say at all.

semi-members who adopt the "four freedoms" and are able to stay away from other stuff...and have some influence.

full members who adopt everything and have endless amounts of influence to shape the union itself.

the UK wishes to be better positioned than semi-members but without the need to adopt the fundamental ground rules of the EU.....why should the majority of 28 states adapt to fulfill the wishes of a non-member and even create an example of failure without any upside?

the UK just hasn't got any cards left to play and every honest remain campaigner told you so before.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

PanelBase (4/28-5/2)

CON: 47% (-2)
LAB: 30% (+3)
LDEM: 10% (NC)
UKIP: 5% (NC)
GRN: 2% (-1)

Labour gains but is still miles behind Tories who are comfortably ahead of Blair's 1997 popular vote results. It will be interesting to see how the Diane Abbott gaffe effects the polling.