UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/03/voting-intention-conservatives-48-labour-29-2-3-ma/ here's the Yougov poll for crosstabs

Fun statistic from the crosstabs, only 50% of 2015 lib dem voters plan on voting for them again this time around.

[jeron]

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/03/voting-intention-conservatives-48-labour-29-2-3-ma/ here's the Yougov poll for crosstabs

Fun statistic from the crosstabs, only 50% of 2015 lib dem voters plan on voting for them again this time around.

That's a bit weird though, they lose half of their supporters, got 8% last time and would still end up with 10% according to this poll.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/03/voting-intention-conservatives-48-labour-29-2-3-ma/ here's the Yougov poll for crosstabs

Fun statistic from the crosstabs, only 50% of 2015 lib dem voters plan on voting for them again this time around.

That's a bit weird though, they lose half of their supporters, got 8% last time and would still end up with 10% according to this poll.

9% of labour 2015 voters and 5% of conservative 2015 voters go to them

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Also has Conservatives on 37% in Scotland and tied with Labour in the North of England but eh not drawing conclusions based on a nationwide poll like this

[SunSt0rm]

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/03/voting-intention-conservatives-48-labour-29-2-3-ma/ here's the Yougov poll for crosstabs

Fun statistic from the crosstabs, only 50% of 2015 lib dem voters plan on voting for them again this time around.

Didnt Lib Dems got some tactical support from the Tories in 2015 against Labour? I remember some Conservatives voted for Clegg in his district to save him from Labour

[jeron]

Also has Conservatives on 37% in Scotland and tied with Labour in the North of England but eh not drawing conclusions based on a nationwide poll like this

I dont buy that, its a small subsample of "190"
Con 37%
SNP 41%
4% gap ?
i find it hard to believe

Also considering the fact that the Conservatives had 15% in 2015 and SNP 50%.

[jeron]

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/03/voting-intention-conservatives-48-labour-29-2-3-ma/ here's the Yougov poll for crosstabs

Fun statistic from the crosstabs, only 50% of 2015 lib dem voters plan on voting for them again this time around.

Yes, I know, but it still seems like it doesn't add up
That's a bit weird though, they lose half of their supporters, got 8% last time and would still end up with 10% according to this poll.

9% of labour 2015 voters and 5% of conservative 2015 voters go to them

[Tintrlvr]

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/03/voting-intention-conservatives-48-labour-29-2-3-ma/ here's the Yougov poll for crosstabs

Fun statistic from the crosstabs, only 50% of 2015 lib dem voters plan on voting for them again this time around.

Didnt Lib Dems got some tactical support from the Tories in 2015 against Labour? I remember some Conservatives voted for Clegg in his district to save him from Labour

Yes, and I'd expect that to continue in the handful of seats that are Labour-Lib Dem marginals, but we're talking maybe 10-12 seats max where that is a real dynamic (and obviously Tories tactically voting Lib Dem doesn't necessarily mean the Lib Dems win back seats like Manchester Withington or Birmingham Yardley).

[Silent Hunter]

It's because I live in an unwinnable seat for Labour that I feel far more comfortable about voting Lib Dem...

[IceAgeComing]

polling crosstabs are incredibly unrepresentative and you should ignore them

[rob in cal]

   So it looks like UKIP will not be running candidates against at least some of the more prominent pro-Brexit tory MPs. This will be a fascinating just from the analytics aspect because we will be able to see how will these candidates do vs those Tories who do face UKIP opponents, in terms of national swing etc. It seems like it might be quite a lot of UKIP stand downs, which in a way is logical in that a prime focus of UKIP is/was Brexit, so it makes sense to not try to defeat potential allies who are actually implementing the policy.  OTOH, its a slippery slope toward political marginalization once you start bowing out of elections.

[Barnes]

I'm sure UKIP's financial woes are the main reason for their failure to run a full slate.

[Blair]

I'm sure UKIP's financial woes are the main reason for their failure to run a full slate.

They've also got a chronic lack of members, and candidates. Out of their 'big hitters' (I use that phrase lightly) from 2015 only one- Nutall is standing. Dianne James, Steven Woolfe, Farage, Patrick O'Flynn etc are all not standing, and a lot of their elected officals have defected to the tories

[afleitch]

Voted in the locals. Filled in the whole ballot this time.

1. SNP
2. SNP
3. Green
4. Libertarian (the party supports independence)
5. Liberal Democrat
6. Labour
7. Independent
8. Conservative

[warandwar]

I'm sure UKIP's financial woes are the main reason for their failure to run a full slate.

They've also got a chronic lack of members, and candidates. Out of their 'big hitters' (I use that phrase lightly) from 2015 only one- Nutall is standing. Dianne James, Steven Woolfe, Farage, Patrick O'Flynn etc are all not standing, and a lot of their elected officals have defected to the tories

I'd include Mike Hookem in their list of "big hitters."

[Clyde1998]

Voted in the locals. Filled in the whole ballot this time.

1. SNP
2. SNP
3. Green
4. Libertarian (the party supports independence)
5. Liberal Democrat
6. Labour
7. Independent
8. Conservative

Who was your independent? I'm guessing they're pro-union based on your preferences.

[afleitch]

Voted in the locals. Filled in the whole ballot this time.

1. SNP
2. SNP
3. Green
4. Libertarian (the party supports independence)
5. Liberal Democrat
6. Labour
7. Independent
8. Conservative

Who was your independent? I'm guessing they're pro-union based on your preferences.

No idea who they were. I usually don't rank them.

[IceAgeComing]

I went 1 Green, 2+3 SNP, 4 Labour, 5 Liberal and 6 Tory - the SNP votes were partially because I know one of the candidates quite closely (mother of a primary school friend, does lots of good stuff) and the current SNP local councillor is good and partially because we have a Labour/Tory coalition that's doing bad things, so Labour don't deserve to be any higher.  I'm pretty sure that my ward will be 1 SNP with the other two seats being between the second SNP, Labour and Tories - on the old boundaries it was 1 SNP/1 Labour/1 Tory in 2012 but the SNP didn't stand a second candidate then while they are now (they need the votes to be balanced for that to happen): Labour were comfortably in in 2012 while the Tories only just got a quota (in a four candidate race): that would suggest that if the SNP get a second then its Labour that will lose out but we aren't really Tory land though so I don't see that happening.  We've got a candidate; I doubt that we'll get a councillor here but I think that we've got a chance of two possibly - we ought to retain our Dunblane and Bofa councillor (four member ward means a lower quota; the seat is basically the northern villages which were traditionally Tory and the university halls which I imagine will be SNP/Green - we got a seat in 2012 but he's standing down because he's an MSP now which might complicate things) and maybe pick up a seat in the city centre.  In terms of Scotland as a whole I haven't a clue - Labour will lose Glasgow and we ought to pick up a few seats everywhere: other than that I don't really know.

[Clyde1998]

LucidTalk Northern Ireland poll (27-29 Apr)
DUP - 29.4% (+3.7)
SF - 27.7% (+3.2)
UUP - 14.8% (-1.2)
SDLP - 12.4% (-1.5)
All - 10.2% (+1.6)

[Barnes]

LucidTalk Northern Ireland poll (27-29 Apr)
DUP - 29.4% (+3.7)
SF - 27.7% (+3.2)
UUP - 14.8% (-1.2)
SDLP - 12.4% (-1.5)
All - 10.2% (+1.6)

With a uniform swing, this would see the DUP up 2, SF up 1, the UUP wiped out, and the SDLP down 1.

[YL]

LucidTalk Northern Ireland poll (27-29 Apr)
DUP - 29.4% (+3.7)
SF - 27.7% (+3.2)
UUP - 14.8% (-1.2)
SDLP - 12.4% (-1.5)
All - 10.2% (+1.6)

With a uniform swing, this would see the DUP up 2, SF up 1, the UUP wiped out, and the SDLP down 1.

It's Northern Ireland, so there won't be a uniform swing.  (And the accuracy of polling is questionable...)

[Barnes]

LucidTalk Northern Ireland poll (27-29 Apr)
DUP - 29.4% (+3.7)
SF - 27.7% (+3.2)
UUP - 14.8% (-1.2)
SDLP - 12.4% (-1.5)
All - 10.2% (+1.6)

With a uniform swing, this would see the DUP up 2, SF up 1, the UUP wiped out, and the SDLP down 1.

It's Northern Ireland, so there won't be a uniform swing.  (And the accuracy of polling is questionable...)

Truer words have never been typed!

[Bacon King]

BBC1 John Piennar: "Lab MPs with majorities up to 5,000 have told me they have abandoned hope of retaining their seats"

[MAINEiac4434]

BBC1 John Piennar: "Lab MPs with majorities up to 5,000 have told me they have abandoned hope of retaining their seats"

Who would that be? Let's find out:

Jack Dromey, Bimingham Erdington, +5,129
Jo Stevens, Cardiff Central, +4,981
Jon Cruddas, Dagenham and Rainham, +4,980
Ivan Lewis, Bury South, +4,922
Ruth Smeeth, Stoke-on-Trent North, +4,836
Jessica Modern, Newport East, +4,705
Sue Hayman, Wokington, +4,686
Melanie Onn, Great Grimsby, +4,540
Lindsay Hoyle, Chorley, +4,530
Geoffrey Robinson, Coventry North West, +4,509
Neil Coyle, Bermondsey and Old Southwark, +4,489
Graham Jones, Hyndburn, +4,400
David Crausby, Bolton North East, +4,377
Ian Austin, Dudley North, +4,181
Kerry McCarthy, Bristol East, +3,980
Alan Whitehead, Southampton Test, +3,810
Paul Flynn, Newport West, +3,510
Helen Goodman, Bishop Auckland, +3,508
Mark Tami, Alyn and Deeside, +3,343
Julie Cooper, Burnley, +3,244
Jim Cunningham, Coventry South, +3,188
Jenny Chapman, Darlington, +3,158
Nic Dakin, Sc**nthorpe, +3,134
Iain Wright, Hartlepool, +3,084
Jess Phillips, Birmingham Yardley, +3,002
Vernon Coaker, Gedling, +2,986
David Hanson, Delyn, +2,930
Gisela Stuart, Birmingham Edgbaston, +2,706
Clive Efford, Eltham, +2,693
Ian Murray, Edinburgh South, +2,637
Mary Creagh, Wakefield, +2,613
Gordon Marsden, Blackpool South, +2,585
Rob Flello, Stoke-on-Trent South, +2,539
Richard Burden, Birmingham Northfield, +2,509
Susan Elan Jones, Clwyd South, +2,402
Tom Blenkinsop, Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East, +2,268
Gareth Thomas, Harrow West, +2,208
Karen Buck, Westminster North, +1,977
David Winnick, Walsall North, +1,937
Madeleine Moon, Bridgend, +1,927
Natascha Engel, Derbyshire North East, +1,883
Ian Lucas, Wrexham, +1,831
Paula Sheriff, Dewsbury, +1,451
Catherine Smith, Lancaster and Fleetwood, +1,65
Peter Kyle, Hove, +1,236
Tulip Siddiq, Hampstead and Kilburn, +1,138
Joan Ryan, Enfield North, +1,086
Rob Marris, Wolverhampton South West, +801
John Woodcock, Barrow and Furness, +795
Paul Farrelly, Newcastle-under-Lyme, +650
Daniel Zeichner, Cambridge, +599
Wes Streeting, Ilford North, +589
Ruth Cadbury, Brentford and Isleworth, +465
Holly Lynch, Halifax, +428
Margaret Greenwood, Wirral West, +417
Rupa Huq, Ealing Central and Acton, +274
Albert Owen, Ynys Môn, +229
Chris Matheson, City of Chester, +93

These are the people who've already given up hope of returning to parliament.

[jaichind]

BBC calculated implied national vote shares from the local elections are

CON  38%
LAB   27%
LIB   18%
UKIP   5%
Other 12%

But if 1983 and 1987 in which local and national election were held right after another are any guide most likely the CON vote will be several percentages above 38%