UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Clyde1998]

My London seat projection model suggests that this is the current state of play in the capital, according to the recent YouGov poll:

Lab - 43 (-2)
Con - 30 (+3)
Lib - 0 (N/C)

Con Gains
Carshalton & Wallington (from Lib)
Dagenham & Rainham (from Lab)
Eltham (from Lab)
Enfield North (from Lab)
Ilford North (from Lab)

Lab Gains
Battersea (from Con)
Finchley & Golders Green (from Con)

For the LAB gains ones I assume you feel the large remain CON vote will defect to LAB and that any defections will go to LAB and not LIB ?

Yeah. I've basically got the EU referendum sub-sample as 35% of the total vote share. According to the poll, 56% of remain voters in London say they'll vote Labour - which gives them a huge boost in some heavy remain areas. Battersea was 78% remain; Finchley was 69% remain.

[Clyde1998]

My London seat projection model suggests that this is the current state of play in the capital, according to the recent YouGov poll:

Lab - 43 (-2)
Con - 30 (+3)
Lib - 0 (N/C)

Con Gains
Carshalton & Wallington (from Lib)
Dagenham & Rainham (from Lab)
Eltham (from Lab)
Enfield North (from Lab)
Ilford North (from Lab)

Lab Gains
Battersea (from Con)
Finchley & Golders Green (from Con)

Hey, is that Maggie's old seat?

It is, yes. That would be one hell of a seat to fall to Labour. I think that's down as a Labour gain due to there being a large EU vote there, plus due to Labour being ahead of the Conservatives among middle class voters in London (yes, seriously) in the poll. I've got it down as Labour +0.5. Some interesting sub-samples may cause some surprise results.

Worth saying that I've got UKIP standing in each seat; which may not be the case when the election comes around.

Labour held it 1997-2010 so not that remarkable.

I didn't actually realise that, but I could argue it's a bit different for Corbyn's Labour to win the seat than 'New Labour' winning the seat.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Northern Ireland seats:

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2017/revealed-full-list-of-general-election-candidates-for-18-northern-ireland-constituencies-35707610.html

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour aren't gaining Finchley with the present Leader. Maybe next time, who knows. Anyway...

[jaichind]

I guess LAB is everywhere except for NI and Speaker. 

CON is everywhere except for Speaker and has some candidates in NI. 

Other than Speaker where else is LIB not contesting outside of NI ?

It seems UKIP and Green are contesting in Speaker's seat again.

Seats being contested by UKIP larger than I thought although I think some of them are in NI.

[mgop]

I guess LAB is everywhere except for NI and Speaker. 

CON is everywhere except for Speaker and has some candidates in NI. 

Other than Speaker where else is LIB not contesting outside of NI ?

It seems UKIP and Green are contesting in Speaker's seat again.

Seats being contested by UKIP larger than I thought although I think some of them are in NI.

why snp 59 when scotland have 60 seats?

[Terry the Fat Shark]

I guess LAB is everywhere except for NI and Speaker. 

CON is everywhere except for Speaker and has some candidates in NI. 

Other than Speaker where else is LIB not contesting outside of NI ?

It seems UKIP and Green are contesting in Speaker's seat again.

Seats being contested by UKIP larger than I thought although I think some of them are in NI.

why snp 59 when scotland have 60 seats?

? It has 59

[Clyde1998]

I guess LAB is everywhere except for NI and Speaker. 

CON is everywhere except for Speaker and has some candidates in NI. 

Other than Speaker where else is LIB not contesting outside of NI ?

It seems UKIP and Green are contesting in Speaker's seat again.

Seats being contested by UKIP larger than I thought although I think some of them are in NI.

why snp 59 when scotland have 60 seats?

Scotland has 59; unless Berwick has transferred back to Scotland without anyone noticing?

[Blair]

I can't see Labour getting either Battersea or Finchley purely because all the resources in London are going to the marginals that we only just won last time.

A very good Labour leader, running on an explicitly pro- single market ticket may be able to win in Battersea but I can't see how Labour can take the seats when you factor in the Liberals

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour are really not running the sort of campaign likely to go down well there anyway...

[YL]

Other than Speaker where else is LIB not contesting outside of NI ?

Brighton Pavilion and Skipton & Ripon.  The latter, as mentioned above, is part of a weird local deal with the Greens which involved the Greens pulling out in the Lib Dems' optimistic target seat of Harrogate & Knaresborough.  The former is also to endorse the Greens although I think that was unilateral.

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There are no UKIP candidates on the NI list CrabCake posted.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Current day Battersea is not the Battersea of 1997...

[rob in cal]

  Labour probably not too excited to see so many seats without a UKIP candidate. OTOH do we really know just how many UKIP voters will really vote Tory if there is no UKIP candidate running, or just stay home or vote for some other party.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

From a few recent polls I've looked at it seems that the 65+ age bracket is basically handing this election the the Conservatives, otherwise it would be a Close/Lean Lib race.

[joevsimp]

For my constituency of Edinburgh South we have:

Alan Beal (Liberal Democrat)
Jim Eadie (SNP)
Ian Murray (Labour)
Stephanie Smith (Conservative)

Ian Murray is the incumbent, notable for being the only Labour MP to survive 2015, Jim Eadie was the MSP for the related but distinct scottish parliament seat of Edinburgh Southern (which does not have the council estates in the south of the city that Edinburgh South has, so is consequently better for the tories than Edinburgh South and worse for Labour and the SNP) from 2011 to 2016 when he lost his seat to (again, notably) Labour. Stephanie Smith is a councillor for Liberton/Gilmerton (the part that is in South but not Southern) and Alan Beal is, as far as I can tell, some dude.

I'll be voting for Murray, and am cautiously optimistic, given our performance in the council elections and murray's position in the sweet spot of the constituency of being both against independence and brexit, of a hold. In fact, I'd go as far to say that this could be one of the only constituencies  in the whole country where labour increase their majority.

Interesting, most pundits seem to have Murray tagged as dead man walking, will be very interesting to see who's right.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

From a few recent polls I've looked at it seems that the 65+ age bracket is basically handing this election the the Conservatives, otherwise it would be a Close/Lean Lib race.

Lib?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Lord Ashcroft Mega poll (40K)

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/05/election-2017-ashcroft-model/#more-15204



UK sample of (40,000):
Cons 40%
Lab 23%
Lib 10%
UKIP 5%
others 6%
Won't vote or Won't say 15%

CONSTITUENCY-BY-CONSTITUENCY



https://dashboards.lordashcroftpolls.com/Storyboard/RHViewStoryBoard.aspx?RId=%C2%B2%C2%B7&RLId=%C2%B2%C2%B3&PId=%C2%B1%C2%B4%C2%BA%C2%B5%C2%B4&UId=%C2%B4%C2%B9%C2%B9%C2%B9%C2%BC&RpId=26

If 2017 is bigger landslide then 1997 , would that convince Labour to move in a more centrist direction.

[Horus]

What are the chances of Labour actually gaining seats? I'd guess 5% but I'm far from an expert.

[Former President tack50]

What are the chances of Labour actually gaining seats? I'd guess 5% but I'm far from an expert.

Probably even less than that. Under some circumstances I can see Labour winning more votes though (iirc there have been polls with Lab at 31%. If the error is like 2015 but in Labour's favour they might pull it off).

However, gaining seats is probably not an option.

Such an scenario would probably be something like:

Con: 44% (+6.5%), 350 seats (+20)
Lab: 34% (+3%), 220 seats (-12)
Lib: 10% (+2%), 6 seats (-2)
UKIP: 5% (-8%), no seats

I don't think the scenario I posted is likely at all though. The Lib Dems going down feels off to me (though I used a plain even swing, so if the swing is more uneven they might do better)

[Shadows]

“I am often asked if as prime minister I would order the use of nuclear weapons,” Corbyn said,  “It’s an extraordinary question when you think about it,” he said. “Would you order the indiscriminate killing of millions of people? Would you risk such extensive contamination of the planet that no life could exist across large parts of the world? If circumstances arose where that was a real option, it would represent complete and cataclysmic failure. It would mean world leaders had already triggered a spiral of catastrophe for humankind.”

“No more hand-holding with Donald Trump,” he declared. “Britain deserves better than simply outsourcing our country’s security and prosperity to the whims of the Trump White House.” The Labour leader said he would honor Britain’s NATO commitment to spend 2 percent of its GDP on defense. But the thrust of Corbyn’s speech was a warning about the “military-industrial complex” in both the United States and Britain, constantly agitating for war.

“I am not a pacifist,” Corbyn said. “I accept that military action, under international law and as a genuine last resort, is in some circumstances necessary.” “Regime change wars … and Western interventions … have failed in their own terms and made the world a more dangerous place,” he said.“They have not increased our security at home — just the opposite. And they have caused destabilization and devastation abroad.”

“A vote for Theresa May could be a vote to escalate the war in Syria, risking military confrontation with Russia, adding to the suffering of the Syrian people and increasing global insecurity.

http://www.politico.eu/article/5-takeaways-jeremy-corbyns-foreign-policy-speech-labour/

[Blair]

Well there hasn't been a single piece of military action (including Falklands/Kosovo) since 1945 that Jeremy has actually supported...

[Shadows]

Well there hasn't been a single piece of military action (including Falklands/Kosovo) since 1945 that Jeremy has actually supported...

Probably better than supporting the war in Iraq, better to err on the side of caution rather than killing & butchering children like Blair supported !

Kosovo is understandable but I don't even blame for Corbyn for Falklands which was a total un-necessary war over islands near South Americans having a few thousand people which Thatcher & General Galtieri used to boost their own national popularity & play the patriotism card !

[Shadows]

“These problems are getting worse and fuelling threats and instability, Mr Corbyn said. The global situation is becoming more dangerous. And the new US President seems determined to add to the dangers by recklessly escalating the confrontation with North Korea, unilaterally launching missile strikes on Syria, opposing President Obama’s nuclear arms deal with Iran and backing a new nuclear arms race.”

“The US is the strongest military power on the planet by a very long way. It has a special responsibility to use its power with care and to support international efforts to resolve conflicts collectively and peacefully,” Mr Corbyn added. “Waiting to see which way the wind blows in Washington isn’t strong leadership. And pandering to an erratic Trump administration will not deliver stability.”

“This is the fourth general election in a row to be held while Britain is at war and our armed forces are in action in the Middle East and beyond. “The ‘bomb first, talk later’ approach to security has failed. To persist with it, as the Conservative Government has made clear it is determined to do, is a recipe for increasing not reducing threats and insecurity.”

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-foreign-policy-donald-trump-world-more-dangerous-place-general-election-2017-a7732106.html

[Shadows]

Theresa May would fire UK’s nuclear weapons as a ‘first strike’, says Defence Secretary Michael Fallon

Theresa May would fire Britain’s nuclear weapons as a ‘first strike’ if necessary, the Defence Secretary has said. Michael Fallon said the Prime Minister was prepared to launch Trident in “the most extreme circumstances”, even if Britain itself was not under nuclear attack.

Theresa May refuses to rule out fresh vote on Syria airstrikes after general election

Asked by the BBC during a campaign rally in the north-east whether she would rule out having a prior-entry vote, the Prime Minister replied: “As you know the United Kingdom is part of a coalition that is operating in Syria and Iraq with the United States and other countries too, to ensure that we acting to defeat Daesh [another name for Isis]. “When I look at the decisions I’ll be taking in terms of defence and foreign policy, there is one thing that will drive those decisions, and that is they will be taken in the British national interest.”

Boris Johnson, the Foreign Secretary, has previously indicated that the British Government could bypass the Commons and join Mr Trump’s military efforts in the war-ravaged region if asked by the US administration. Speaking last month, Mr Johnson said it would be “very difficult to say no” if the US asked the UK to join its efforts against Bashar al-Assad’s dictatorial regime in response to another chemical attack.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-syria-airstrikes-vote-election-donald-trump-a7732906.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-syria-airstrikes-vote-election-donald-trump-a7732906.html

Let's go warmonger Theresa May !

[thumb21]

Lord Ashcroft Mega poll (40K)

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/05/election-2017-ashcroft-model/#more-15204



UK sample of (40,000):
Cons 40%
Lab 23%
Lib 10%
UKIP 5%
others 6%
Won't vote or Won't say 15%

CONSTITUENCY-BY-CONSTITUENCY



https://dashboards.lordashcroftpolls.com/Storyboard/RHViewStoryBoard.aspx?RId=%C2%B2%C2%B7&RLId=%C2%B2%C2%B3&PId=%C2%B1%C2%B4%C2%BA%C2%B5%C2%B4&UId=%C2%B4%C2%B9%C2%B9%C2%B9%C2%BC&RpId=26

If 2017 is bigger landslide then 1997 , would that convince Labour to move in a more centrist direction.

I think the Blairites would use it as an opportunity to take back control of Labour and most Labour members would probably fall for it to be entirely honest. However, going centrist is just as disastrous.

What is holding back Labour is not their left-wing policies, the polls are very clear that the British people support most of them. The problem is messaging. Corbyn especially and the Labour party as a whole is bad at messaging and Corbyn as an individual is holding Labour quite far back.

What Labour needs is not to become the Red Tory, but to have fresh leadership with better messaging that is straight to the point. They should probably move to the right on issues like immigration to appeal to English voters as well as coming out in favour of English devolved parliament. An important factor that will cost Labour this election is the fact that they have failed to pick up much of the collapsing UKIP vote.