UK General Election, June 8th 2017
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Author Topic: UK General Election, June 8th 2017  (Read 207441 times)
Hnv1
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« Reply #900 on: May 16, 2017, 02:03:25 PM »


The foreign relations section looks like a back and forth between Corbyn and Watson
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RBH
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« Reply #901 on: May 16, 2017, 03:19:09 PM »

Towards the end of last week I had a long conversation with a Conservative activist who has been canvassing in key target seats in the southeast.

He had been working in the Dagenham and Rainham parliamentary constituency mostly focussing former council estates which at past elections have been pretty solid for Labour. What was striking, he told me, was the massive negative reaction to Jeremy Corbyn that he was getting on the doorstep and how quite a few of those being canvassed wanted to use the conversation to vent the anger with the Labour leader.

[Note for US readers "Council Estate" = Public Housing Neighborhood

to be fair, D&R went 40/34 Labour in 2010 and nearly gave UKIP 30% in 2015. I'd think that seat flips easy in a landslide
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rob in cal
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« Reply #902 on: May 16, 2017, 03:54:54 PM »

  Any thoughts about which seats will be most impacted compared to 2015 by not having a UKIP candidate this time around?
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Barnes
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« Reply #903 on: May 16, 2017, 04:59:22 PM »

Odd that the Other Place doesn't even get a passing shot in this manifesto. Which is the first time that's happened since 1987.

 Whatever shall we do without our diresory "Senate of the Regions"?!

Ooh, I was pointed in the right direction to find the missing clause.
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jaichind
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« Reply #904 on: May 17, 2017, 04:36:34 AM »

Business Insider / GfK election poll

CON       48
LAB        28
LIB          7
UKIP       5
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jaichind
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« Reply #905 on: May 17, 2017, 05:54:29 AM »


Yes, yet real wages fell which is a function of higher inflation due toe the falling of GBP since Brexit.   I guess going forward pay increases will accelerate due to labor market conditions but I suspect that by early 2020s real wages will still be below 2008 levels.
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afleitch
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« Reply #906 on: May 17, 2017, 12:31:15 PM »

Slightly off topic, but the Labour Party group on Aberdeen City council have been suspended for going into coalition with the Tories against Labour's wishes. One Lib Dem also defected to join the new independent grouping.
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jaichind
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« Reply #907 on: May 17, 2017, 02:55:02 PM »

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/john-mcdonnell/news/85905/john-mcdonnell-polls-are-showing

John McDonnell (Shadow Chancellor): Polls are showing Labour is going to win the election

This is very problematic in terms of logic and math.  It is one thing to say the polls are wrong it is another to say polls which show at best LAB behind CON by 14% shows that LAB is going to win.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #908 on: May 17, 2017, 04:35:10 PM »

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/john-mcdonnell/news/85905/john-mcdonnell-polls-are-showing

John McDonnell (Shadow Chancellor): Polls are showing Labour is going to win the election

This is very problematic in terms of logic and math.  It is one thing to say the polls are wrong it is another to say polls which show at best LAB behind CON by 14% shows that LAB is going to win.

It's quite hard to know who's most separated from reality between him and Diane Abbott...
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jaichind
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« Reply #909 on: May 17, 2017, 07:06:07 PM »

YouGov/The Times  poll

CON     45 (-1)
LAB      33 (+2)
LIB        8 (-3)
UKIP      6 (+1)

LAB at new high.  Most likely part of a surge related to the manifesto being released.
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jaichind
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« Reply #910 on: May 17, 2017, 07:09:15 PM »

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-labour-leader-tony-blair-support-election-2017-uk-prime-minister-polls-a7740921.html

Tony Blair would win fewer votes than Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader, new poll reveals

GfK poll showed that

31% will vote for a party led by Corbyn
23% will vote for a party led by Blair
24% will vote for a party led by Miliband
25% will voet for a party led by Cooper

It seems even if Corbyn leads LAB to a historic defeat he is still the best they got.
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jfern
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« Reply #911 on: May 17, 2017, 09:27:52 PM »

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-labour-leader-tony-blair-support-election-2017-uk-prime-minister-polls-a7740921.html

Tony Blair would win fewer votes than Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader, new poll reveals

GfK poll showed that

31% will vote for a party led by Corbyn
23% will vote for a party led by Blair
24% will vote for a party led by Miliband
25% will voet for a party led by Cooper

It seems even if Corbyn leads LAB to a historic defeat he is still the best they got.

The Blairites obviously don't want you to see that poll.
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jaichind
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« Reply #912 on: May 18, 2017, 05:16:20 AM »

Ipsos MORI

CON      49 (nc)
LAB      34 (+8)
LIB        7 (-7)
Greens   3 (+2)
UKIP      2 (-2)

LAB surge confirmed, mostly at expense of LIB
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Shadows
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« Reply #913 on: May 18, 2017, 05:51:26 AM »
« Edited: May 18, 2017, 06:09:44 AM by Shadows »

A young mother has been credited with making “one of the most convincing arguments for voting Labour” after calling a radio phone-in show to claim that Jeremy Corbyn would help her and her family. Highlighting Labour’s promise to introduce a new £10-an-hour minimum wage , she said it was potentially “an absolutely huge benefit” for her and her partner. “Everything that is a benefit to myself and my partner and all the people that I know has been cut.” “Personally, for myself and for all of the other people that I know in the village that I live in, I can’t see that any of the policies would actually be a bad thing because I think they really resonate with working class people," she said. “People need to realise that if you’re working class, you should be voting for Jeremy Corbyn”, she said.

“It seems to be that people just want to bash Jeremy Corbyn,” she added.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/young-mother-lbc-radio-iain-dale-vote-labour-jeremy-corbyn-general-election-2017-a7741486.html


The Prime Minister has refused to take part in televised debates, while Labour leader Mr Corbyn has said he will only join in if his main rival for Number 10 is also present. ITV’s debate on Thursday evening will see Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron, Ukip's Paul Nuttall and the SNP's Nicola Sturgeon lock horns. Plaid Cymru's Leanne Wood and Green co-leader Caroline Lucas will also take part in the two-hour show being broadcast from Salford.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-tv-debate-jeremy-corbyn-and-theresa-may-will-not-face-being-emptychaired-despite-a3542101.html


In the new poll btw, Conservatives have their voters as most certain. Lib-Dem the least with 51%, so incase of a Labour surge, some of them may still shift. Ofcourse there is always the potential for Labour to fall further.

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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #914 on: May 18, 2017, 08:27:03 AM »

So it's pretty much guaranteed that Theresa May is going to win close to 48% of the popular vote.
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afleitch
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« Reply #915 on: May 18, 2017, 08:49:07 AM »

Actually, I wouldn't be suprised if the Tories are overestimated at Labour's expense. Labour seem to be rallying anti-Tory opposition to them. The polarisation is quite something.
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mvd10
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« Reply #916 on: May 18, 2017, 08:59:44 AM »

Ugh, I really hate May. I'd almost want Corbyn to win to get a decent Tory leader, but most of the Tory frontbench is pathetic anyway. Hammond is decent though.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #917 on: May 18, 2017, 09:01:18 AM »

Theresa May buries Thatcherism


Tory Manifesto

https://issuu.com/conservativeparty/docs/ge2017_manifesto_a5_digital


First time since 1979 no classical liberal party running for office, New political era...


She's very good at portraying herself as a moderate. Remember her first speech as PM?
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #918 on: May 18, 2017, 09:02:27 AM »

Theresa May buries Thatcherism


Tory Manifesto

https://issuu.com/conservativeparty/docs/ge2017_manifesto_a5_digital


First time since 1979 no classical liberal party running for office, New political era...


She's very good at portraying herself as a moderate. Remember her first speech as PM?

It's not about that. It's about being 'strong and stable'.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #919 on: May 18, 2017, 09:05:16 AM »

Theresa May buries Thatcherism


Tory Manifesto

https://issuu.com/conservativeparty/docs/ge2017_manifesto_a5_digital


First time since 1979 no classical liberal party running for office, New political era...


She's very good at portraying herself as a moderate. Remember her first speech as PM?

It's not about that. It's about being 'strong and stable'.

That's what is going to win her the election.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #920 on: May 18, 2017, 09:14:53 AM »

yeah, she'll drop all of these plays to the left as soon as the election is over. How many times did George Osborne come up with feel good chate about equality or whatever?

what's amazing is that the media still buys all these fictitious "Tories moving to the left" narratives.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #921 on: May 18, 2017, 09:32:42 AM »

interesting.

well, the real exciting election won't be this one but the next.
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Blair
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« Reply #922 on: May 18, 2017, 10:07:13 AM »

Someone best described her as a Christian Democrat to me; she's certainly got a streak for breaking out of the tory mainstream as home secretary- reformed stop and search, told the police federation to change etc. Of course some of this is her way of inflating herself (the Nasty Party speech). Every successful PM has had to to go for the Sister Soujah moment- Blair with Clause IV, Cameron with gay rights, and May with the Economy.

If she moves Hammond to FCO, and puts Rudd or Damian Green as Chancellor, then expect a lot of this stuff to actually happen.
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Shadows
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« Reply #923 on: May 18, 2017, 10:57:22 AM »

Theresa May today twice ducked questions about whether Philip Hammond will stay as Chancellor after the election. Asked about a newspaper report alleging that relations between him and 10 Downing Street had deteriorated, the Chancellor said: “I’m not going to say I’ve never occasionally sworn.”

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/chancellor-philip-hammond-fuels-rumours-of-rows-with-theresa-may-as-he-admits-swearing-a3541326.html

Is Hammond gone after the election?

Prime Minister Theresa May rejected "untrammelled free markets" and promised to rein in corporate excesses in pre-election pledges designed to woo not only her core supporters but also those of her left-wing rivals. Her proposals merge tough rules on immigration, cuts to corporation tax and a vote on overturning a ban on fox hunting, which will bring cheer to her party's heartlands, with a promise to cap energy bills, tackle excessive boardroom pay and introduce greater workers' rights. "We do not believe in untrammelled free markets," she wrote in her party's election manifesto, entitled "Forward Together". "We reject the cult of selfish individualism."

http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/92757238/uk-pm-theresa-mays-pitch-to-voters-market-intervention-stiffer-rules-for-business

Why is she going after working class voters with this gusto instead of solidifying her base which would have given her a big victory anyway? Is she expecting Labour to crash & a landslide for Tories with more working class folks?

Unusual strategy !

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Shadows
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« Reply #924 on: May 18, 2017, 11:04:31 AM »
« Edited: May 18, 2017, 10:22:56 PM by Shadows »

“With the UK's climate targets slipping further out of reach, it appears Theresa May has decided to bury her head in the sand. There is one paltry mention of the air pollution crisis, and no mention of the jaw-dropping cost reductions in renewable energy. Fracking will be forced on local communities, whilst the dirty and expensive energy of the past will continue to receive lavish public hand-outs. The cheapest and cleanest energy once again loses out.”

“There is no detail [in the manifesto] on how vital EU monitoring and enforcement of environmental protections will be replaced, and no long-term goal for restoring our environment. “Quite simply, this country looks set to face an unprecedented, undemocratic, and economically-illiterate attack on the environment, and the Green Party will be at the front-line of opposing it.”

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-manifesto-environment-caroline-lucas-green-party-car-crash-conservative-a7742946.html

Will the Greens win any seat if they win 3-4% of the vote?


Theresa May is taking a hard line stance on skilled immigration too  - This will pinch surely & bring down net immigration !

"So we will double the Immigration Skills Charge levied on companies employing migrant workers, to £2,000 a year by the end of the parliament, using the revenue generated to invest in higher level skills training for workers in the UK." "Overseas students will remain in the immigration statistics – in line with international definitions – and within scope of the government’s policy to reduce annual net migration," the manifesto states.

http://www.businessinsider.com/theresa-may-conservative-manifesto-immigration-eu-worker-charge-brexit-employers-2000-year-2017-5?IR=T
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