UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Kamala]

what labour could win right now with another leader.....

Only Corbyn could find a way to lose against a campaign with LITERALLY JUST 8 WORDS.

Don't you think she looks tired?

[Barnes]

Callaghan had a 19-point lead over Thatcher as preferred PM on the eve of the 1979 election. I believe Howard had better net ratings than Blair in 2005.

Wilson bragged endlessly in 1970 about trouncing Heath in the PM preference polls.

[afleitch]

I'm starting to think the Tories might actually struggle to get a majority. Something has shifted; May is stuck either repeating herself and her mantra, which brings her down, or making u-turns which makes a mockery of those mantra which also brings her down.

There's an uplift in the Labour vote which isn't coming from UKIP, or from the Tories etc but from a broad base of voters who simply disappeared 20 years ago. That might be enough to fight the Tories to a similar result to 2015, even with the Tory vote share also going up.

This week might just be an electoral fart. Ask me in a week

[Silent Hunter]

A tiny advance on 2015 in Wales for Labour doesn't help them much - they still need to make a lot of gains in England (any in Scotland would help) to be even largest party.

It is possible that they are piling up votes in their safe seats and losing in marginals.

This is still May's to lose. Maybe not a landslide, but a majority greater than 50, I'd say.

[warandwar]

Theresa May had a tough grilled by Andrew Neil but no gaff or negative sound bite

With the u turn on social care and everything she's still way better then Corbyn.

She may want to have old people freeze to death and recycle their bodies for fox bait but at least she won't redistribute any resulting profit.

[warandwar]

Theresa May had a tough grilled by Andrew Neil but no gaff or negative sound bite

With the u turn on social care and everything she's still way better then Corbyn.

She may want to have old people freeze to death and recycle their bodies for fox bait but at least she won't redistribute any resulting profit.

I'm no fan of the Tories, I've never voted Tory in my life.   
This election is about brexit negotiations, Theresa May is much stronger then Corbyn

1: This week has shown that the election is about much more than Brexit. If the election was still about Brexit we wouldn't be seeing this surge for Corbyn.

2: May hasn't seemed particularly..... strong (or stable) recently with her immediate u-turn. Did you see her reaction in Wales today? Her face looked like the end of Hellraiser as she sqwaked about labour lies.

 If this continues, her time as PM will be quite short, even if the Tories win.

[Blair]

Callaghan had a 19-point lead over Thatcher as preferred PM on the eve of the 1979 election. I believe Howard had better net ratings than Blair in 2005.

I remember when this was Labour's talking point in 2015 If you combine it with economic competency it generally gives the right result (Blair had very high levels in 2005, I assume Callaghan didn't)

I read in more then one article, the big bounce for Labour in Wales this week  is due the the death of the popular  Labour FT Rhodri Morgan.

I'm by no means an expert in Welsh Labour but I doubt it caused a massive shift of 20 odd points. Welsh Labour does run a very good shop though; and is by far the most effective group outside of London.

[ApatheticAustrian]

this election is about getting a fake mandate for brexit, before getting crushed during the negotiations, which would make the next elections rather painful.

[Blair]

At least this is confirming by Theresa May is Gordon Brown theory. An unpopular policy trotted out for no reason, a Chancellor who she wants to sack, a close and loyal team hated by the rest of her party, and a pissed off but weak faction happy to bite at her heels.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I remember when this was Labour's talking point in 2015

Right, but of course the issue isn't whether Labour will win or not (even the most optimistic don't see that), which makes it a very different situation.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Regarding Wales, it's worth noting that Welsh polling is famously volatile and massive swings during a campaign are quite common. You do sometimes wonder how real they are, but it isn't like it's ever possible to know. If Labour were to actually hit 44% it would be the best PV result since 2001 and actually only a point off Kinnock's impressive debut in 1987. And equally it's worth noting that 34% would still be a very strong Tory figure.

Now, leaving aside the matter of the very high scores for both Labour and the Tories in the poll, a relatively strong showing for Labour Wales is hardly implausible: a) in 2015 Labour fell back a little in Wales while gaining a little overall, b) Labour's performance in the locals a few weeks back was stronger in Wales than elsewhere (even in the basket case authorities where winning control is quite the poisoned chalice), c) Labour in Wales may benefit from a more independent profile, d) it's certainly possible that more not-particulary-political people in Wales are attracted by the idea of nationalising utilities and the railways than elsewhere in the UK. But we shall see...

[Silent Hunter]

When I canvassed in Thurrock in 2015, people barely had any conversations with me at all...

[IceAgeComing]

Having canvassed in a few elections myself (started with the indyref, did 2016 and the locals this year with the Greens; I get this election off thankfully because as committed as I am, going to campaign in Glasgow isn't something that I'm that interested in doing at the moment) my conclusion is that any "conversations" you have with people who you're canvassing for aren't particularly useful as information on the general situation - if everyone who told us "well I'd vote Green but it'd be a wasted vote!" (which it isn't in either of the two elections that I was campaigning for) actually voted Green then we'd have finished third in the last election.  The Tories had the same thing in 1997 - some of them who were actively campaigning dismissed the polls because people were saying that they'd vote for them on the doorstep and then... not.  I mean those things are people saying positive things and then not doing them, but I'd imagine that there's a chance of the opposite - people not liking Corbyn and willing to say that to Labour people, but then when faced with the choice between the local Labour candidate and the Tories, they'll realise that they probably dislike the latter more.  The more that Brexit doesn't feature in the campaign (which it hasn't really, although again I'm in Scotland and things here are obviously very different) the better for Labour really - although again I think people have a habit of overstating its importance really...

What's interesting here is that the SNP seem to be the only party focusing their campaign on things that are reserved matters (the four points on their leaflet seem to be austerity, opposition to a hard Brexit, the Rape Clause and Pensions) while ignoring independence entirely, while the Tories have gone fully down the "PROTECT ARE UNION" road.  I mean this is Stirling which wasn't a pro-independence area really (60% No, although my area probably was more than that) which would explain that, but it just interested me.

[DavidB.]

this election is about getting a fake mandate for brexit, before getting crushed during the negotiations, which would make the next elections rather painful.

This is part of the story, but I think this election is mainly about the Tories buying themselves some time in government after Brexit in order to mitigate the economic effects (good luck with that) so that they won't be hated for this forever.

[thumb21]

One good thing was that David Cameron seemed humble & with empathy while May with all her tough woman image, comes across as somewhat unrelatable sometimes with ordinary folks !

Just a friendly reminder that David Cameron eats sandwiches with a knife and fork. Case closed.

[_]

Nicola Sturgeon's record just caught up with her.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0HzQOEBQ7M

>When you finally realize you can't just yell Scotland Forever and be reelected, you have to put work into helping your constituents.

[Shadows]

When Labour does bad, it's all on Corbyn, when they do okay, it's not. Corbyn is the most popular Labour leader with the support of the base. He has getting the support of a massive amount of young people. The manifesto is as an uber left document, strongly supported be people, the manifesto is his baby, he was told, take responsibility for this & go down with this.

It doesn't take strength to cut benefits of disabled people, regulate the internet like North Korea, do the bidding of big corporates or order men into their deathbeds through wars & get millions killed in Iraq. It does take guts to take unpopular positions, ahead of one's time. If anything, this massive support has shown, Corbyn & his ideas are the future.

Anyways -

Over 90,000 young people registered to vote on Sunday in a boost to Jeremy Corbyn's election campaign.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/22/boost-jeremy-corbyn-90000-young-people-register-vote-just-one/

[jaichind]

Explosion, Panic and Death at Ariana Grande Concert in England

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/22/world/europe/ariana-grande-manchester-police.html?_r=0

[The Other Castro]

Campaigning for June’s general election has been suspended.

[DL]

Campaigning for June’s general election has been suspended.

That will last about 24 hours at most

[jaichind]

Predictit price for CON over 390 seats jumped around 7% right after the explosion. 

[Barnes]

Could we, for once, try not to calculate the political advantage gained from the deaths of dozens of people a few hours after they've been brutally murdered?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not cool buddy.

Please leave this forum and never return.

[Silent Hunter]

Definitely not cool. This is not the time for that sort of thing.

[Silent Hunter]

Definitely not cool. This is not the time for that sort of thing.