UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Shadows]

Based on Survation Voting %, predicting Universal Swing -

Tories - 331 (+1)
Labour - 236 (+4)
UKIP - 0 (-1)
Lib-Dem - 5 (-3)
SNP - 55 (-1)

326 is the magic number - The majority !

I played around a bit.

Scenario 1 -

Tory - 43, Lab - 38, Lib-Dem - 7%
Seats - Tory - 326, Labour - 243 (+11), Lib-Dem 4 (-4)

Scenario 2 -
Tory - 42, Labour - 39, Lib-Dem - 7%,
Seats - Tory - 319, Labour - 250  (+18), Lib-Dem 4

Scenario 3 -
Tory - 41, Labour - 40, Lib-Dem - 7%,
Seats - Tory - 313, Labour - 256, Lib-Dem 4

(Still Labour + SNP + Green + Plaid + Lib-Dem isn't even 320 seats)

Scenario 5 -
Tory - 40, Labour - 41, Lib-Dem - 7%
Seats - Tory - 307, Labour - 263, Lib-Dem - 4

Labour + SNP = 320 + Remaining = Majority.

The odds of Labour winning is very low if uniform swing holds true (which likely is never uniform). But Labour literally has to lead the vote by 1% from trailing 7% to have some chances of forming a government. In other words, Labour has to have almost same votes as Tories. The key thing here is Tories will get an outright majority or not (not Corbyn winning) !

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Breitbart is not antisemitic.

Corbyn, in many respects, is an unpleasant man and he's clearly a bumbling fool but it's pretty hard to argue that he doesn't have the right intentions or that he doesn't care for the welfare of people. He's clearly not someone who approves of violence and the right's insistence that this is the case comes across as hysterical and deranged.

He doubtlessly cares about the welfare of his people, but the road to hell is paved with good intentions. Hugo Chavez probably cared about his people too. As for Corbyn not being someone who approves of violence, surely you could see why some think that him speaking of his "friends of Hamas and Hezbollah" suggests otherwise?

My argument is that the right's anti-Corbyn isn't persuasive, not that Corbyn is Good (he is not) or that he's anywhere near my first choice. You'll have a hard time convincing anyone that he approves of Hamas or Hezbollah and their atrocities. A much more credible criticism is that he's a dunce who doesn't understand basic facts about the organizations and, thus, should not be PM.

[DavidB.]

Breitbart is not antisemitic.

Corbyn, in many respects, is an unpleasant man and he's clearly a bumbling fool but it's pretty hard to argue that he doesn't have the right intentions or that he doesn't care for the welfare of people. He's clearly not someone who approves of violence and the right's insistence that this is the case comes across as hysterical and deranged.

He doubtlessly cares about the welfare of his people, but the road to hell is paved with good intentions. Hugo Chavez probably cared about his people too. As for Corbyn not being someone who approves of violence, surely you could see why some think that him speaking of his "friends of Hamas and Hezbollah" suggests otherwise?

My argument is that the right's anti-Corbyn isn't persuasive, not that Corbyn is Good (he is not) or that he's anywhere near my first choice. You'll have a hard time convincing anyone that he approves of Hamas or Hezbollah and their atrocities. A much more credible criticism is that he's a dunce who doesn't understand basic facts about the organizations and, thus, should not be PM.

There is no misunderstanding, I get your argument. Of course we're both deeply biased here (even if I know Corbyn is far from being your first choice), and I may be wrong, but I really don't think Tories will have a hard time convincing people that he approves of Hamas or Hezbollah at all. This, indeed, does not necessarily mean he approves of everything they do, but I feel I may already be pretty generous to him here. Corbyn is not naive or stupid, he's just deeply ideological.

[EnglishPete]

Breitbart is not antisemitic.

Corbyn, in many respects, is an unpleasant man and he's clearly a bumbling fool but it's pretty hard to argue that he doesn't have the right intentions or that he doesn't care for the welfare of people. He's clearly not someone who approves of violence and the right's insistence that this is the case comes across as hysterical and deranged.

He doubtlessly cares about the welfare of his people, but the road to hell is paved with good intentions. Hugo Chavez probably cared about his people too. As for Corbyn not being someone who approves of violence, surely you could see why some think that him speaking of his "friends of Hamas and Hezbollah" suggests otherwise?

My argument is that the right's anti-Corbyn isn't persuasive, not that Corbyn is Good (he is not) or that he's anywhere near my first choice. You'll have a hard time convincing anyone that he approves of Hamas or Hezbollah and their atrocities. A much more credible criticism is that he's a dunce who doesn't understand basic facts about the organizations and, thus, should not be PM.

There is no misunderstanding, I get your argument. Of course we're both deeply biased here (even if I know Corbyn is far from being your first choice), and I may be wrong, but I really don't think Tories will have a hard time convincing people that he approves of Hamas or Hezbollah at all. This, indeed, does not necessarily mean he approves of everything they do, but I feel I may already be pretty generous to him here. Corbyn is not naive or stupid, he's just deeply ideological.

And this is the heart of the reason for bringing up his long standing ties with and support for Sinn Fein/IRA in the 1980s at the hight of their bombing campaigns. Its not just the IRA issue itself, although plenty of people in the UK still feel very strongly about that. Its to help establish the point that he has given comfort to anti-British terrorists for decades. He's also consistently opposed every single measure, whether its funding or weapons for the armed forces, anti-terror legislation, all western military action without exception.

He also has extremely close ties to the communist led, anti Western anti Israel street protest group, the 'Stop the War Coalition'. The leader of that group, Andrew Murray was recently appointed as a campaign strategist by Corbyn. Murray only joined the Labour Party last November having been for 40 years a member of the Communist Party of Great Britain and then the Communist Party of Britain. As recently as last year Corbyn attended and spoke at a Cuba Solidarity (i.e. Pro Castro) group meeting. He's consistently defended and embraced anti-Israel terrorist groups whilst condemning any Isreali effort at self defense. In the 1980s he was, and indeed continues to be, an active supporter of the Soviet backed Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (lots of people noted at the time that CND never seemed to have a problem with Soviet nukes, just western ones).

Now any one of these facts taken is isolation could be taken as a sign of being misguided or naive. However taken all together they make a very clear picture of what kind of man Corbyn is and that is why its so important for the Tories and their supporters in the media and elsewhere to keep bringing these points up ad nauseam

[Tender Branson]

Last time I checked, Teresa May said she's not debating.

What changed her mind ?

[EnglishPete]

Last time I checked, Teresa May said she's not debating.

What changed her mind ?

Its not a debate tonight, its what the Americans would call a Townhall with may and Corbyn being interviewed separately and in turn

[EnglishPete]

Those things are basically made for activists more than anything else; I doubt that the sort of people who follow the Tory party on twitter are likely to be floating voters.

Well the Tories have spent a lot of money on finding swing voters to target on social media - see the recent uproar over the dark ads and dubious legality of the Tories' funding and expenditure on data analytics.

A look at the viewing figures for the two attack ads

first the Corbyn one.

https://www.facebook.com/conservatives/videos/10155027173824279/

On Facebook

3.1M views
13k Likes 9.4k Comments 42k Shares

On Youtube

707,683 views

and Twitter no viewing figures but 5.3K  retweets and 3.8K Likes

The Diane Abbott  not on the Conservatives Youtube yet but

On facebook

569k Views

5.1k Likes 2.5k Comments 8.2k Shares

On twitter again of course no viewing figures but Retweets  719   Likes 653



I think these ads are getting seen and will have an effect.

[Shadows]

PUT HIM DOWN AS A MAYBE Voter is spotted binning a leaflet which Theresa May gave him as PM relaunches the Tory campaign

The Prime Minister went canvassing in London and was seen deep in conversation with a man outside his house. However, just moments after the politicians walked away, the man promptly took the leaflet they’d given him and threw it in the bin. She described Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell as “a Marxist who had to google the deficit and wants to abolish MI5”, while mocking Diane Abbott because she “can’t add up”. In a message to voters reluctant to back the Tories, Mrs May said: “There is no safe way to vote Labour. “If you don’t want Jeremy Corbyn negotiating Brexit then you have to vote for local Conservative candidates up and down the country.”

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3674406/theresa-may-urges-voters-to-focus-on-crucial-choice-between-her-and-jeremy-corbyn-as-she-relaunches-tory-campaign/


Jeremy Corbyn, the video game

Computer game designers who support Jeremy Corbyn have given the leftist Labour leader his own game. In “Corbyn Run” players have to take money from bankers and avoid Tory ministers. The game, by a left-leaning collective known as Games For The Many, sees the veteran MP for Islington North under attack by, among others, Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson (who is hanging from a zipwire and hurling Union Jack flags), Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt and the ghost of Margaret Thatcher, Buzzfeed reported Monday. For each level completed, a Labour Party manifesto pledge is activated.

http://www.politico.eu/article/jeremy-corbyn-run-video-game-general-election-uk-2017/


Jeremy Corbyn signed a motion that condemned IRA violence in 1994

Jeremy Corbyn signed a motion in the House of Commons that condemned IRA violence and "extended its sympathy to the relatives of those murdered". The Leader of the Labour Party supported an early day motion put forward by Labour MP David Winnick to commemorate the victims of the IRA bombing in Birmingham in 1974.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-labour-party-ira-violence-1994-general-election-a7761801.html

[rob in cal]

   Poll question.  With UKIP not running candidates in close to half the constituencies, are polling outfits taking that into consideration?  If not, that means they are asking people in the 40% or so seats without a UKIP candidate whether they plan on voting UKIP when they can't do that. So, the real vote for UKIP on election day will have to be  smaller than expected based on the polls.  Also, if these voters who want to vote UKIP but can't are not being asked their second choice than that might be underpolling the true vote that the Tories are likely to get.

[Shadows]

Theresa May heckled by hunt saboteurs over fox hunting manifesto pledge

The Prime Minister was shouted down on Saturday night during a general election hustings in her constituency of Maidenhead. Members of the Hunt Saboteurs Association accused Mrs May of ignoring the views of "90 per cent" of the population, according to the Maidenhead Advertiser.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/29/theresa-may-heckled-hunt-saboteurs-fox-hunting-manifesto-pledge/


Song calling Theresa May a ‘liar’ reaches tenth place in download charts but radio stations refuse to play it

A song accusing Theresa May of being a “liar” has reached tenth place in the download charts but radio stations have refused to play it. The lyrics of the song include “she’s a Liar, Liar…you can’t trust her, no no no no” and "when there's nurses going hungry and schools in decline I don't recognise this broken country of mine”.  Jake, a band member and songwriter from Captain Ska, said “This can only be seen as an attempt by the media owners to undermine public opinion. Thousands of people have downloaded this track and we demand that it is aired as any other song would be,"

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-liar-liar-song-tenth-place-captain-ska-big-top-40-download-chart-a7761091.html


Theresa May accused of being ‘Donald Trump’s mole’ in Europe after UK tries to water down EU climate change policy

Theresa May has been accused of being Donald Trump’s “mole” in Europe after leaked documents showed the UK attempted to water down EU policies designed to tackle climate change. In one of the leaked documents, the UK proposed watering down an EU plan to improve energy efficiency by 30 per cent by 2030, reducing the target figure to 27 per cent and making it “indicative” rather than “binding”. Another submission showed the UK also wanted to remove a requirement for a “linear” trajectory towards a 2030 target for renewable energy after 2021.

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/theresa-may-donald-trump-mole-eu-europe-climate-change-greenpeace-leaked-documents-a7761236.html

[EnglishPete]

Jeremy Corbyn signed a motion that condemned IRA violence in 1994

Jeremy Corbyn signed a motion in the House of Commons that condemned IRA violence and "extended its sympathy to the relatives of those murdered". The Leader of the Labour Party supported an early day motion put forward by Labour MP David Winnick to commemorate the victims of the IRA bombing in Birmingham in 1974.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-labour-party-ira-violence-1994-general-election-a7761801.html

Nice try. Let's have a look at the actual wording of the motion signed by Corbyn shall we.

http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/business-papers/commons/early-day-motions/edm-detail1/?edmnumber=28&session=1994-95

It says that on the 20th anniversary of the Birmingham pub bombing it " deplores that such an atrocity occurred " and extends its sympathy to the victims. That's rather passive language 'deplores that an atrocity occured'. No clue from the language in the motion who might be to blame for this. Maybe it was the fault of the British state for driving the IRA to such measures, maybe it wasn't the IRA at all. As for the offer of 'sympathy' its meaningless coming from an IRA apologist.

[Kamala]

It gives me some delicious schadenfreude that Theresa pissed away an almost 25-point lead.

Also, enough shadows spam.

[Rob Bloom]

Breitbart is not antisemitic.

Corbyn, in many respects, is an unpleasant man and he's clearly a bumbling fool but it's pretty hard to argue that he doesn't have the right intentions or that he doesn't care for the welfare of people. He's clearly not someone who approves of violence and the right's insistence that this is the case comes across as hysterical and deranged.

He doubtlessly cares about the welfare of his people, but the road to hell is paved with good intentions. Hugo Chavez probably cared about his people too. As for Corbyn not being someone who approves of violence, surely you could see why some think that him speaking of his "friends of Hamas and Hezbollah" suggests otherwise?

My argument is that the right's anti-Corbyn isn't persuasive, not that Corbyn is Good (he is not) or that he's anywhere near my first choice. You'll have a hard time convincing anyone that he approves of Hamas or Hezbollah and their atrocities. A much more credible criticism is that he's a dunce who doesn't understand basic facts about the organizations and, thus, should not be PM.

Maybe I'm a dunce, too, but would you care to explain how Corbyn, being a dunce, managed to win two Labour leadership elections within 15 months against an extremely hostile party establishment and media?
I really do think the guy, if nothing else, deserves some respect.

[Zioneer]

How exactly is Corbyn catching up to May? I don't understand it.

[Hatman 🍁]

How exactly is Corbyn catching up to May? I don't understand it.

What's there to not understand? It is very very common for voters to rebel against a governing party when they call snap elections based on arrogance and over confidence.

[cp]

From your mouth to all UK voters' ears ...

FYI, Sky townhall/interview session tonight. General attitude seems banal, though twitter is abuzz about an audience member mouthing 'bollocks' while May tried to defend her record on the NHS

[Silent Hunter]

Also, Paxman doing the interviews. He's always fun.

[thumb21]

I was in St. Albans today and saw an overwhelming number of Lib Dem signs. Probably doesn't mean much. Perhaps it's just that Liberal signs stand out better than Conservative ones which blend in, and probably Liberals are more willing to advertise their political opinions than Conservatives.

[Tintrlvr]

I was in St. Albans today and saw an overwhelming number of Lib Dem signs. Probably doesn't mean much. Perhaps it's just that Liberal signs stand out better than Conservative ones which blend in, and probably Liberals are more willing to advertise their political opinions than Conservatives.

It is the kind of seat where the Lib Dems might be competitive if they had managed to get their support into the mid- to high-teens (even though it's never actually elected a Lib Dem in the past), but seems unlikely that they could win it now. I guess it's possible though if a lot of Labour voters are willing to vote tactically? It's much better demographically for the Lib Dems now than a lot of seats they held in all or part of 1997-2015 are.

[_]

Survation poll

CON           43
LAB            37
LIB              8
UKIP           4

Survation have 82% of 18-24s certain to vote and turnout overall 81.2%

implying highest voter turnout since 1951....

this poll seem utterly flawed

@election_data 
Some conjecture about turnout % of 18-24s at EU referendum. BES had it at 60% of those registered but this graph says 37%

Also the Greens at 1% and SNP at 2%.

[thumb21]

I was in St. Albans today and saw an overwhelming number of Lib Dem signs. Probably doesn't mean much. Perhaps it's just that Liberal signs stand out better than Conservative ones which blend in, and probably Liberals are more willing to advertise their political opinions than Conservatives.

It is the kind of seat where the Lib Dems might be competitive if they had managed to get their support into the mid- to high-teens (even though it's never actually elected a Lib Dem in the past), but seems unlikely that they could win it now. I guess it's possible though if a lot of Labour voters are willing to vote tactically? It's much better demographically for the Lib Dems now than a lot of seats they held in all or part of 1997-2015 are.

True. We will see. In 2010, the Lib Dems did quite well there and were only 4.4 points behind the Tories. Perhaps with the Lib Dem vote shifting with rural Eurosceptic Lib Dem supporters abandoning ship and being replaced by more urban "remoaners," places like St. Albans could be in play. I suppose we will find that out. Either way, Tories will probably still win.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Does anyone else miss the days when discussion of say UK Elections on Atlas was erudite, informed and for the most part good natured? As it stands this thread is a disgrace; I keep meaning check back a few pages to see if I have replies to make but I'm not sure if I can be bothered.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How exactly is Corbyn catching up to May? I don't understand it.

Back in the old days, when threads such as this weren't clogged up by sh!tposts from sh!tposters, it would be easy enough to spot quickly the explanations. Alas we do not live in the old days! The answer is simple: the Tory manifesto was an appallingly arrogant document which included certain extremely unpopular policies (notably over social care). And Labour have run an old fashioned Party campaign (rather than one based around the personality of the Leader) and have a manifesto full of populist policies.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

How exactly is Corbyn catching up to May? I don't understand it.

Back in the old days, when threads such as this weren't clogged up by sh!tposts from sh!tposters, it would be easy enough to spot quickly the explanations. Alas we do not live in the old days! The answer is simple: the Tory manifesto was an appallingly arrogant document which included certain extremely unpopular policies (notably over social care). And Labour have run an old fashioned Party campaign (rather than one based around the personality of the Leader) and have a manifesto full of populist policies.

Could you (or another British poster) elaborate on some of the unpopular Tory policies? I know I asked this already some time ago but I haven't really had time to read up on it since then because I've been so busy with travel for school.

[MaxQue]

How exactly is Corbyn catching up to May? I don't understand it.

Back in the old days, when threads such as this weren't clogged up by sh!tposts from sh!tposters, it would be easy enough to spot quickly the explanations. Alas we do not live in the old days! The answer is simple: the Tory manifesto was an appallingly arrogant document which included certain extremely unpopular policies (notably over social care). And Labour have run an old fashioned Party campaign (rather than one based around the personality of the Leader) and have a manifesto full of populist policies.

Could you (or another British poster) elaborate on some of the unpopular Tory policies? I know I asked this already some time ago but I haven't really had time to read up on it since then because I've been so busy with travel for school.

Relegalizing fox hunting.
The so-called "Dementia Tax" (pay for dementia care of the assets/real estate of the person when he dies), it was also dropped due to how badly the idea was received.