UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Shadows]

Theresa May heckled and laughed at by debate audience over collapse of her manifesto

Members of the audience giggled when the Prime Minister when she said Labour’s figures “don’t add up” – apparently amused that it was the Conservative manifesto that had to be rewritten. There was a shout of “you’ve clearly failed” when Ms May said, of school funding, “nobody can guarantee the real terms per funding increase”.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-tv-debate-battle-no10-paxman-laughter-manifesto-school-cuts-a7762301.html

Jeremy Corbyn's terrible mistakes on foreign policy issues, lack of charisma & firepower, average oratory is going to give May the election.

Her policies are terrible, the austerity & cuts have failed education & healthcare, she was barraged by the audience on education/healthcare issues, she failed all immigration targets while being home secretary & now is putting policies she can't implement. She was grilled badly on her manifesto - No number on social cap, she is getting record low support from young people. Her climate change stance is not adequate, she wants to take over the Internet & regulate it like North Korea. Labour's policies are overwhelmingly popular with massive support from young voters. She is going to win this convincingly due to Corbyn's personal issues !

[Shadows]

Survation Poll  - Apart from age based polarization, there is a huge gender based polarization as well -

Age Group                18-24          25-34          35-44          45-54           55-64      65-74           75+

Tory                            25.8           30.1            40.3            48.6             47.1        52.6           61.9        
Lab                             60.3           50.5            36.3            31.1             32.9        27.9           18.2
Lib-Dem                       5.4             9.8              9.2             8.5               7.7         10.2            7.0


Area                        London         Midlands       North          South          England     Scotland   Wales

Tory                            28.4           49.7            38.9            54.6             43.6        38.1           36.8        
Lab                             54.9           38.3            45.1            31.4             38.6        19.6           41.8
Lib-Dem                       9.1             3.3              8.5             10.8              8.2        12.1            5.4
SNP                                                                                                                     28.6


While the young voting % is too high, Scotland is totally off with a small sample size of 56. Noway will the Tories sweep Scotland !

No.1 Issue among all voters -

NHS - 19%
Brexit - 11.2%
Immigration - 10.3%
Economy - 8.3%
Party Leader - 6.8%
Education - 3.8%
Tribal Loyalty - 2.5%
Defense - 2.2%

Among 18-24, No.1 Issue -

NHS - 19.4%
Education - 13.4%
Tribal Loyalty - 7%
Economy - 6.6%
Party Leader - 5.8%
Immigration - 3.2%
Defense - 3.1%
Brexit - 2.3%

Gender Based results -

Male - Tory - 46.8%, Lab - 30.9%
Female - Tory - 39.5, Lab - 43.7%

[Lachi]

To quote a reaction from the debate "Paxman is a much better interviewer when he shuts the f[inks] up"

[Shadows]

Theresa May heckled and laughed at by debate audience over collapse of her manifesto

Members of the audience giggled when the Prime Minister when she said Labour’s figures “don’t add up” – apparently amused that it was the Conservative manifesto that had to be rewritten. There was a shout of “you’ve clearly failed” when Ms May said, of school funding, “nobody can guarantee the real terms per funding increase”.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-tv-debate-battle-no10-paxman-laughter-manifesto-school-cuts-a7762301.html

Jeremy Corbyn's terrible mistakes on foreign policy issues, lack of charisma & firepower, average oratory is going to give May the election.

Her policies are terrible, the austerity & cuts have failed education & healthcare, she was barraged by the audience on education/healthcare issues, she failed all immigration targets while being home secretary & now is putting policies she can't implement. She was grilled badly on her manifesto - No number on social cap, she is getting record low support from young people. Her climate change stance is not adequate, she wants to take over the Internet & regulate it like North Korea. Labour's policies are overwhelmingly popular with massive support from young voters. She is going to win this convincingly due to Corbyn's personal issues !

I watched that 'debate' and May is seriously a giant idiot. She's like a female Marco Rubio with a little Jeb ! thrown in.

I guess everywhere around the world, borderline retarded Conservative leaders are propped up by old farts who are trying to cling to their past. I figured it wasn't just a US thing.

She is absolutely terrible & it is sad the world over terrible conservative leaders are being propped up. She would have had a sure-shot loss in 2020 with more young people in & the wounds of Brexit.

They have cut Corporate tax rate to 19% (& have one of the lowest corporate taxes with no positive result) & now wants to cut it even further & when Corbyn wants to make it to 26% (it was 28% in 2010 odd), he is being called a loon. Now May is threatening to make UK a Tax Haven for EU. They probably want 0% Corporate Tax in a few decades & to further devastate healthcare, education, welfare (which has already been devastated).

Britain is willing to rip up its economic model and become the tax haven of Europe if it is shut out of the EU’s single market, the Chancellor has suggested. In a stark warning to the other 27 EU countries, Philip Hammond said the UK is willing to do “whatever we have to” to bounce back after Brexit.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-chancellor-philip-hammond-welt-am-sonntag-uk-tax-haven-europe-a7527961.html

[Silent Hunter]

How exactly is Corbyn catching up to May? I don't understand it.

What's there to not understand? It is very very common for voters to rebel against a governing party when they call snap elections based on arrogance and over confidence.

In the UK, however, it is quite common for a governing party to call a snap election and increase their majority (1955, 1966, Oct 1974, 1983).

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Relegalizing fox hunting.

WHY DO THEY CARE

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Does anyone else miss the days when discussion of say UK Elections on Atlas was erudite, informed and for the most part good natured? As it stands this thread is a disgrace; I keep meaning check back a few pages to see if I have replies to make but I'm not sure if I can be bothered.

I most certainly do.  International elections used to be the best of Atlas and you used to be able to learn a great deal about other countries' political culture, geography and core issues. Nowadays the general hackery from the US Presidential Elections forum has really started to spill over here as well.

Maybe we should create an invite only discussion group where you're only invited if you know where British coal miners stand politically and you don't just fling political dung in every direction you go.

[parochial boy]

Does anyone else miss the days when discussion of say UK Elections on Atlas was erudite, informed and for the most part good natured? As it stands this thread is a disgrace; I keep meaning check back a few pages to see if I have replies to make but I'm not sure if I can be bothered.

You were hopefully going to explain why polling data on social grade was unreliable?

[DC Al Fine]

Does anyone else miss the days when discussion of say UK Elections on Atlas was erudite, informed and for the most part good natured? As it stands this thread is a disgrace; I keep meaning check back a few pages to see if I have replies to make but I'm not sure if I can be bothered.

You were hopefully going to explain why polling data on social grade was unreliable?

[Lachi]

I have averaged out all of the polls taken over the last week, and I am seeing that the potential gains that the conservatives had are all but gone, except in Scotland, which is where I think most of the action will be next Wednesday, although there will be quite a few in England that will be interesting.

[vileplume]

https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/labour-support-just-13-per-cent-among-uk-jews-1.439325

Survation poll of Jewish voters. Unsurprisingly Corbyn epically tanking:

Tory: 77% (+10)
Labour: 13% (-5)
Lib Dem: 7% (+5)

While the Jewish population in Britain is small they are quite heavily concentrated in several constituencies such as Bury South, Finchley and Golders Green, Hendon, Hertsmere (the first three of these being marginal/semi-marginal).

Jewish voters believe that Labour is the most anti-Semitic party (worse than UKIP) whilst the Tories are the least anti-Semitic.

[DL]

Aren't Jews also overwhelmingly anti-Brexit?

[Phony Moderate]

Aren't Jews also overwhelmingly anti-Brexit?

Well not on the basis of those figures.

[vileplume]

I was in St. Albans today and saw an overwhelming number of Lib Dem signs. Probably doesn't mean much. Perhaps it's just that Liberal signs stand out better than Conservative ones which blend in, and probably Liberals are more willing to advertise their political opinions than Conservatives.

This. The Lib Dems always win the sign war in St Albans even in years like 2015 when they crashed to third. This year though (in the Marshalswick area at least) there are actually quite a few Tory signs which you don't usually see.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Aren't Jews also overwhelmingly anti-Brexit?

doesn't matter if you look at labour's not-so-subtle "anti-zionism".

[parochial boy]

I was in St. Albans today and saw an overwhelming number of Lib Dem signs. Probably doesn't mean much. Perhaps it's just that Liberal signs stand out better than Conservative ones which blend in, and probably Liberals are more willing to advertise their political opinions than Conservatives.

This. The Lib Dems always win the sign war in St Albans even in years like 2015 when they crashed to third. This year though (in the Marshalswick area at least) there are actually quite a few Tory signs which you don't usually see.

Yeah, I've always wondered why Conservatives are so reluctant to put up posters the way supporters of other parties do - I had a wonder round Putney at the weekend, and  you would have thought it was going to be a fight to the death between Labour and Lib Dems, but it's a safe Tory seat.

Even more hillarious, I remember being in Arundel in 2015 and only seeing Labour signs, in Arundel!

[Blair]

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2017-the-question-tories-wont-answer-on-migration-a3552146.html

Osborne's editorial in the standard is pretty hard hitting on May; not just on immigration, but on the whole campaign. I do wonder if there will be a by-election for him to jump into in the next couple of years.

[Shadows]

Jeremy Corbyn struggles over cost of childcare policy

Jeremy Corbyn was unable to put a cost on Labour's plan for free childcare for 1.3m youngsters during an interview with BBC Radio 4's Woman's Hour. The childcare part of the interview began with Mr Corbyn being asked whether he had the figure for its cost and replying: "Yes I do." Pressed to give the number, he said: "I'll give you the figure in a moment." He argued that investing in children in early years meant they did better in school and added: "I want to give you an accurate figure." Eventually, Ms Barnett quoted shadow education secretary Angela Rayner, who was on BBC Radio 4's Today programme earlier: "£2.7bn, then £4.8bn... with half a billion to reverse cuts to the Sure Start scheme. Does that sound about right?" "It does sound correct," Mr Corbyn said.

http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2017-40090520


Theresa May warns Jeremy Corbyn would be 'alone and naked' in Brexit negotiations

Theresa May has warned that Jeremy Corbyn’s position on Brexit would leave him “alone and naked” in negotiations with Brussels. “Last night showed that Jeremy Corbyn’s minders can put him in a smart blue suit for an interview with Jeremy Paxman but with his position on Brexit he will find himself alone and naked in the negotiating chamber of the European Union.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/30/theresa-may-warns-jeremy-corbyn-would-alone-naked-brexit-negotiations/


Jeremy Corbyn treated unfairly by press, says David Dimbleby

The broadcaster, who is often regarded as the voice of the nation after decades of fronting Question Time, election night specials and state occasions, strayed into unfamiliar territory by backing a longstanding complaint by Corbyn’s supporters. Speaking before a Question Time special on Thursday when he will interview the Labour leader and Theresa May, Dimbleby pointed out the rightwing bias of most British newspapers and complained of their “lazy pessimism”.

Dimbleby said: “I don’t think anyone could say that Corbyn has had a fair deal at the hands of the press, in a way that the Labour party did when it was more to the centre, but then we generally have a rightwing press.”“It’s a very odd election,” Dimbleby said. “If the Conservative story is how Theresa May is the ‘brand leader’, the interesting thing is that a lot of Labour supporters really like and believe in the messages that Jeremy Corbyn is bringing across. “It’s not his MPs in the House of Commons necessarily, but there is a lot of support in the country.”

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/may/30/jeremy-corbyn-david-dimbleby-rightwing-bias-british-newspapers

[Shadows]

The US Bernie Sanders campaigners lending Jeremy Corbyn a hand

The sessions are held with organisers from the Bernie Sanders campaign, who are providing assistance in the form of lessons and the introduction of new digital tools. Momentum alone has nearly 24,000 members and 200,000 supporters.“Every training we’ve held, over 100 people have showed up. When we launched the carpool website, we had 20,000 unique visitors within 18 hours."
Erika Uyterhoeven, a 30-year-old from Boston, said Momentum have implemented technology never before used in a UK election campaign.

This includes:

My Nearest Marginal, a website which allows members to locate their nearest marginal and organise a carpool with others to travel there.

Peer-to-peer texting to drum up support.

And a phone-banking app that allows you to call Labour members from the comfort of your home.

Erika Uyterhoeven “I got involved in politics through the Sanders campaign. I was the national outer-state organising director, in charge of mobilising people to go from border states to higher-priority states."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/30/the-us-sanders-campaigners-lending-corybn-hand-bernie-momentum

[Blair]

In regards to Momentum we used something called PHOwen in the 2016 leadership campaign where you could do phone banking at home on your mobile; and I think we stole the idea from Corbyns campaign in 2015. It's much nicer than sitting in an office with 20 other Labour members struggling to hear who you're talking to.

The my nearest marginal app apparently has 'left' some vulnerable MP's like Wes Streeting, and Neil Coyle off it. Can't imagine why.

[Chief Justice Keef]

It's been kind of hilarious to watch the complete arrogance of the Tory campaign collapse in on itself. They really thought they could just roll out an awful manifesto and still win in a landslide against Labour, and now Labour's trailing them in the single digits.

[mvd10]

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2017-the-question-tories-wont-answer-on-migration-a3552146.html

Osborne's editorial in the standard is pretty hard hitting on May; not just on immigration, but on the whole campaign. I do wonder if there will be a by-election for him to jump into in the next couple of years.

Osborne >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> May. I really hope Osborne's views will be the future of the Tories instead of May's, but I'm afraid that's just not going to happen. Atleast May probably won't win in a landslide.

[EnglishPete]

Aren't Jews also overwhelmingly anti-Brexit?

Well considering Corbyn associations like this

https://order-order.com/2017/05/30/corbyn-repeatedly-shared-platforms-with-plane-hijacker/

Jeremy Corbyn has repeatedly shared a platform with PFLP terrorist and hijacker Leila Khaled. During these "anti Zionist" conferences Corbyn called for a complete trade embargo of Israel.

Its not just defending the IRA 30 years ago, its not just taking part in an inappropriate wreath laying. Its not just calls he made years ago for Britain's security forces MI5 and Special Branch to be shut down. These are not isolated incidents. Corbyn has acted this way again and again and again over the years.

Given the way that Jews in general and Israel in particular have been a prime target for terrorists you can understand British Jews (who have traditionally tended to vote Labour just as US Jews tend to vote Democratic) not warming to the party under Corbyn.

[Blair]

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2017-the-question-tories-wont-answer-on-migration-a3552146.html

Osborne's editorial in the standard is pretty hard hitting on May; not just on immigration, but on the whole campaign. I do wonder if there will be a by-election for him to jump into in the next couple of years.

Osborne >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> May. I really hope Osborne's views will be the future of the Tories instead of May's, but I'm afraid that's just not going to happen. Atleast May probably won't win in a landslide.

May's views have been adopted because she was popular. Free market tories where happy to put up with capping electricity bills, and the liberals were relatively okay with the immigration stuff because they expected her to gain 80+ seats.

[GlobeSoc]

This is like a Rubio v Sanders matchup except everyone has an iq of 40