UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Shadows]

Jeremy Corbyn texts Bernie in the middle of his speech, asks him to come meet him when he is PM Corbyn

While Bernie Sanders was in the middle of a speech/discussion, the host said they received a text message "Can you come back to the UK after Thursday when I form a new government & help advance social justice". Bernie Sanders - "I will be more than delighted to return to the UK to see him as PM"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zeA2l4nCDe0&app=desktop

[Gary J]

I think you would need something catastrophic, like a nuclear attack, before the executive would act outside law to postpone a general election.

I believe that there was a plan during the Cold War that, if attack was imminent and Parliament could not respond in time, emergency powers would be enacted under the royal prerogative. The constitutionality of using a power to legislate without Parliament, for the first time since about the 13th century, was extremely dubious. However if the emergency were big enough, no one would be bothered about formalities.

[parochial boy]

I've noticed that the YouGov model is predicting that the independent, Claire Wright, will win in East Devon. Does anyone know why this is on the cards? has Hugo Swire done something to make himself particularly unpopular locally?

[Helsinkian]

Alastair Campbell, former Blair aide, compared the jihadists to Brexit supporters in a tweet (and then deleted it): https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/871358356472156161

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Given the sort of election this is the swing matters more than the lead. And the implied swings from the latest poll of each outfit are as follows...

Survation +3.0
YouGov +1.5
Norstat +1.5
Ipsos/MORI +1.0
Opinium +0.5
SurveyMonkey +0.5
Panelbase -0.5
ORB -1.0
Kantar -1.5
ICM -2.0
ComRes -2.5

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Given the sort of election this is the swing matters more than the lead. And the implied swings from the latest poll of each outfit are as follows...

Survation +3.0
YouGov +1.5
Norstat +1.5
Ipsos/MORI +1.0
Opinium +0.5
SurveyMonkey +0.5
Panelbase -0.5
ORB -1.0
Kantar -1.5
ICM -2.0
ComRes -2.5

So, basically we aren't getting anything from the polls.

Polls go up, polls go down. Can't explain that.

[Former President tack50]

Given the sort of election this is the swing matters more than the lead. And the implied swings from the latest poll of each outfit are as follows...

Survation +3.0
YouGov +1.5
Norstat +1.5
Ipsos/MORI +1.0
Opinium +0.5
SurveyMonkey +0.5
Panelbase -0.5
ORB -1.0
Kantar -1.5
ICM -2.0
ComRes -2.5

If you do the average there's a 0.05% swing towards Labour. So, barely anything changes compared to 2015?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Given the sort of election this is the swing matters more than the lead. And the implied swings from the latest poll of each outfit are as follows...

Survation +3.0
YouGov +1.5
Norstat +1.5
Ipsos/MORI +1.0
Opinium +0.5
SurveyMonkey +0.5
Panelbase -0.5
ORB -1.0
Kantar -1.5
ICM -2.0
ComRes -2.5

If you do the average there's a 0.05% swing towards Labour. So, barely anything changes compared to 2015?

If the polling is correct, yes. Though you'd see a few seats ping around if that were to happen.

However there are two major caveats and both concern the Conservative vote. The first is that London polling suggests they're losing a small amount of support or only level on last time (seemingly due to a loss of support to the LibDems as the picture for Labour there is about the same as nationally; perhaps a Brexit factor), while in Scotland the polling suggests that they could as much as double their support from last time.

[MaxQue]

@SimonDanczuk
Can't believe public will now vote Labour to put Corbyn in Downing Street when he opposes shoot-to-kill & is effectively terrorists' friend.

Well, he opposed at Labour because they kicked him out for being a sex pest and loving to be violent towards his wife.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Pathetic and based on a complete misunderstanding of Prime Ministerial powers and authority. And certain other things as well.

[Silent Hunter]

Given the sort of election this is the swing matters more than the lead. And the implied swings from the latest poll of each outfit are as follows...

Survation +3.0
YouGov +1.5
Norstat +1.5
Ipsos/MORI +1.0
Opinium +0.5
SurveyMonkey +0.5
Panelbase -0.5
ORB -1.0
Kantar -1.5
ICM -2.0
ComRes -2.5

If you do the average there's a 0.05% swing towards Labour. So, barely anything changes compared to 2015?

If the polling is correct, yes. Though you'd see a few seats ping around if that were to happen.

However there are two major caveats and both concern the Conservative vote. The first is that London polling suggests they're losing a small amount of support or only level on last time (seemingly due to a loss of support to the LibDems as the picture for Labour there is about the same as nationally; perhaps a Brexit factor), while in Scotland the polling suggests that they could as much as double their support from last time.

A uniform 3% swing to Labour would gain them around 22 seats, 21 from the Conservatives. That would put the Conservatives on 310 seats, 16 seats short of a majority and probably able to function as a minority government.

However, Labour actually have to win Con-held marginals and hold their own vulnerable seats, as well as prevent the Conservatives from knocking off too many SNP held targets.

Pulling all three off seems rather unlikely.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well the last one is totally out of their hands and the focus of the Labour campaign has been on the second of those things to the expense of the first (quite correctly, obviously) so...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

2015: Labour would have supported 10% cuts to the policing budget. As it happens, Osborne ruled out any further cuts



http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-34922126


^^ Labour shouldn't overplay police cuts it may backfire but rather focus on an alternative way to tackle extremism 

This is how you turn young Muslims away from terrorism.

http://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2016/07/15/485900076/how-a-danish-town-helped-young-muslims-turn-away-from-isis

[ApatheticAustrian]

i am pre-hating the "hot takes" how a may victory is going to be a vote against extremism or something.

[Cashew]

 Can't you people show some respect for Theresa May

She's using death to fearmonger and push for internet control, and we are supposed to shake hands and smile about it?

[Edu]

 Can't you people show some respect for Theresa May

She's using death to fearmonger and push for internet control, and we are supposed to shake hands and smile about it?

Did you even read his post?

[Cashew]

 Can't you people show some respect for Theresa May

She's using death to fearmonger and push for internet control, and we are supposed to shake hands and smile about it?

Did you even read his post?

Yes it's bad that she cut police funding but that was not my point. Even giving the pond scum the pretense of respect is too much for them.

[Bacon King]

 Can't you people show some respect for Theresa May

She's using death to fearmonger and push for internet control, and we are supposed to shake hands and smile about it?

Did you even read his post?

Yes it's bad that she cut police funding but that was not my point. Even giving the pond scum the pretense of respect is too much for them.

learn to sarcasm buddy

[Cashew]

 Can't you people show some respect for Theresa May

She's using death to fearmonger and push for internet control, and we are supposed to shake hands and smile about it?

Did you even read his post?

Yes it's bad that she cut police funding but that was not my point. Even giving the pond scum the pretense of respect is too much for them.

learn to sarcasm buddy

That's what makes it more embarassing. My game has been terrible lately.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

There is so much noise in this election I really don't know what to expect anymore, but, my prediction is out there.

[Phony Moderate]

Former Cameron advisor Steve Hilton: May responsible for security failures, calls on her to resign: http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/steve-hilton-david-camerons-former-strategy-chief-tells-theresa-may-to-quit-over-terrorism-failures-a3556811.html

[Bumaye]

YouGov: 
 
Conservative 42% 305
Labour 38% 268
Liberal Democrats 9% 13
UKIP 3% 0
Green 2% 1
SNP   4% 42
Plaid Cymru 0% 2 
 
Labour, SNP, LibDem, PC and Greens with exactly 326 seats. 
 
Sample size: 8095 
Date: 4th June

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour braced for significant losses in north and Midlands
Theresa May seen as best leader in Brexit-voting towns, say candidates
 
Conservatives in the London area confirm that Labour’s vote is holding up well in the capital. “Corbyn isn’t as toxic here, even in the outer boroughs,” said one veteran Tory campaigner. “But it will be a very different picture in the Midlands and the north, very different.”

https://www.ft.com/content/39dd413a-47b5-11e7-8519-9f94ee97d996

This turns out to be an incredibly vacuous article the contents of which are very information-light and don't really match up with the headline. So about standard for election coverage then.

[Barnes]

Labour braced for significant losses in north and Midlands
Theresa May seen as best leader in Brexit-voting towns, say candidates
 
Conservatives in the London area confirm that Labour’s vote is holding up well in the capital. “Corbyn isn’t as toxic here, even in the outer boroughs,” said one veteran Tory campaigner. “But it will be a very different picture in the Midlands and the north, very different.”

https://www.ft.com/content/39dd413a-47b5-11e7-8519-9f94ee97d996

This turns out to be an incredibly vacuous article the contents of which are very information-light and don't really match up with the headline. So about standard for election coverage then.

"It's going to be very, bigly different, believe me!"

[Bacon King]

So is Queen of Plymouth just a bot that posts Tory propaganda or what