UK General Election, June 8th 2017
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  UK General Election, June 8th 2017
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Author Topic: UK General Election, June 8th 2017  (Read 207435 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #1875 on: June 07, 2017, 04:49:10 PM »

Relatively well for Labour in this election will be gaining seats overall...

The most likely is still that they lose a few dozens. For crying out loud let's not get our hopes up pointlessly.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1876 on: June 07, 2017, 04:49:48 PM »

Some of us have been here long enough to remember that Zogby poll in 2004 putting Kerry ahead...
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #1877 on: June 07, 2017, 04:51:51 PM »

Kerry ahead wasn't exactly ASB (to use an acronym of another forum) - Bush only won by 2.4% and flipping 60,000 votes in Ohio would have won it for Kerry.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1878 on: June 07, 2017, 04:53:41 PM »

Some of us have been here long enough to remember that Zogby poll in 2004 putting Kerry ahead...

Yes, but IIRC, it was 52-48 for Kerry and the final PV was 51-48 for Bush...
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Beet
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« Reply #1879 on: June 07, 2017, 04:56:21 PM »

But I'm sure that after tomorrow, when the Tories predictably win a majority of 50 or so, people will start rewriting history and act like Labour was about to win in a landslide until the attack happened and people suddenly shifted back. Roll Eyes

Labour was surging in every poll and now they're dropping in some. YouGov they dropped 3. Not to mention Corbyn's been knocked totally off message since he wanted to talk economic policy.

NO THEY WEREN'T, the polls haven't shown any clear movement since the past two weeks at least.

The Manchester attacks was around then.
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #1880 on: June 07, 2017, 04:57:44 PM »

But I'm sure that after tomorrow, when the Tories predictably win a majority of 50 or so, people will start rewriting history and act like Labour was about to win in a landslide until the attack happened and people suddenly shifted back. Roll Eyes

Labour was surging in every poll and now they're dropping in some. YouGov they dropped 3. Not to mention Corbyn's been knocked totally off message since he wanted to talk economic policy.

NO THEY WEREN'T, the polls haven't shown any clear movement since the past two weeks at least.

The Manchester attacks was around then.

YouGov were the first to show anything approaching hung parliament territory - and the poll in question was conducted after Manchester.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1881 on: June 07, 2017, 05:03:19 PM »

Apparently Survation's release has been delayed due to a fracas in the stats room!
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #1882 on: June 07, 2017, 05:07:37 PM »

there was tightening before Manchester, but I think it was the tightening that everyone expected really - parties going into the election in the position that Labour were generally will increase in the polls - especially since UKIP were going backwards and the Libs were going nowhere.  The first polls showing a tight race and any kind of swing to Labour were after Manchester.  Although again there's been a huge range in the polls since then - there could be a ten point Tory lead, it could be a hung parliament.  The clear trend in the poll average though shows the Labour rise and the Tory fall continuing until the last few days of the campaign...
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afleitch
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« Reply #1883 on: June 07, 2017, 05:10:21 PM »

Apparently Survation's release has been delayed due to a fracas in the stats room!

Worth noting Survation nailed 2015, but didn't release the poll because they didn't believe it.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1884 on: June 07, 2017, 05:16:36 PM »

Also worth noting that even a stopped clock is right twice a day... Past performance is not a guide to future accuracy.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #1885 on: June 07, 2017, 05:46:48 PM »

Cassetteboy vs Theresa May
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7iUYWMD77w
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1886 on: June 07, 2017, 05:48:56 PM »

It's 12 minutes to midnight and Survation still haven't published...
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1887 on: June 07, 2017, 05:50:28 PM »
« Edited: June 07, 2017, 05:53:01 PM by Silent Hunter »

Speak of the devil...


I think with the reduced SNP share, that's a Tory majority.
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Zanas
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« Reply #1888 on: June 07, 2017, 05:53:09 PM »

Well at least kudos to them for publishing that and not herding with the pack. Polls are meant to disagree with one another.
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Baki
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« Reply #1889 on: June 07, 2017, 05:53:35 PM »

CON 41.3
LAB 40.4
LD 7.8
UKIP 2.4
SNP 3.6
PC 1.7
GRE 2.3
OTH 0.5

SAMPLE SIZE 2798 F/W 6-7TH JUNE
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DavidB.
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« Reply #1890 on: June 07, 2017, 05:54:34 PM »

Polls are meant to disagree with one another.
Not really. Ideally they are all methodologically correct and come to the same conclusions.
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