UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Boston Bread]

Tony Blair says he is returning to politics.  What does this mean? Will he try to capture the leadership of the LAB party after a diasterous election result and Corbyn pushed out?  I assume this not possible with him not being a MP.  If so will he, assuming the LABs get hammered in the election, form SDP Mark II and try to form an alliance with LIBs?

My guess is Blair will go into anti-Brexit activism rather than party politics.

[Boston Bread]

Labour - 80%
PC - 74%
LD - 73%
SNP - 73%
Green - 66%
Tory - 57%
UKIP -50%

[Boston Bread]

The polling does seem to show some tightening, but where is this happening? I highly doubt it's even across the country. If Labour is gaining in Scotland at the expense of the Tories, any seat gains there will just end up being at the expense of the SNP.  I don't think the possibility of a hung Parliament happens unless the Conservatives fall below 40%.

Subsamples are always dodgy, but recent polls have shown that Labour is not significantly gaining in Scotland (every recent poll I've seen still has Labour 3rd there). Labour is mainly gaining in the North (Lab +14 in YouGov, +8.5 in Survation), Wales (Lab +19.3 in Survation, no sample from YouGov), and London (Lab +10 in YouGov, +7.3 in Survation).

As for which parties Labour is taking from, they could be taking from any mix of Lib Dems, Tories, UKIP, or Greens, depending on the pollster.

Links:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/wvyc3lofp5/SundayTimesResults_170519_VI_W.pdf
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Final-GMB-GE2017-III-Tables-190517TOCH-1c0d3h4.pdf

[Boston Bread]

How reasonable is this seat projection from Yougov? It suggests Labour gaining a lot of seats and Tories falling short of a majority. https://mobile.twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/869662208892030976