UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[DavidB.]

What's causing the sudden swing in momentum from the Tories to Labour?

The manifestos. People focus on the Tories' budget cuts now instead of on Jeremy Corbyn's less than appealing personality.

[DavidB.]

this election is about getting a fake mandate for brexit, before getting crushed during the negotiations, which would make the next elections rather painful.

This is part of the story, but I think this election is mainly about the Tories buying themselves some time in government after Brexit in order to mitigate the economic effects (good luck with that) so that they won't be hated for this forever.

[DavidB.]

Yes please do, is it more to do with pollsters being particularly bad at capturing social grades - or is more the "Social grades are obsolete" line (which I'm not sure I really agree with)

I don't think any British poster would be as stupid to make the last point -- and Al would be the last one to do so.

[DavidB.]

Love these ads. And Labour just keep creating useful material for them.

[DavidB.]

As recently as 2014 Corbyn wrote in a communist newspaper that he attended a wreath laying for one of the Munich terrorists

Quote "The Sunday Times has a story that Jeremy Corbyn attended a wreath-laying at the grave of a Palestinian terrorist involved in the Munich massacre. Guido can give a little more detail…

In October 2014 Corbyn wrote an article for the communist Morning Star newspaper in which he recounts attending a wreath-laying ceremony. He writes:

“After wreaths were laid at the graves of those who died on that day [at Sabra and Shatila] and on the graves of others killed by Mossad agents in Paris in 1991, we moved to the poignant statue in the main avenue of the coastal town of Ben Arous, which was festooned with Palestinian and Tunisian flags.”
There is no record of any Mossad operation which killed anyone in Paris in 1991. However, Mossad is believed to have carried out an assassination in Paris on June 8, 1992. Atef Bseiso was the PLO head of intelligence and was one of the Palestinian terrorists who carried out the Munich massacre. " End Quote

https://order-order.com/2017/05/28/corbyn-honoured-munich-massacre-terrorist/

It's crystal clear that you can't be a self-respecting Jew and vote for Corbyn's Labour Party. Just impossible, no matter how sensible some of his other stances may be.

[DavidB.]

Breitbart is not antisemitic.

Corbyn, in many respects, is an unpleasant man and he's clearly a bumbling fool but it's pretty hard to argue that he doesn't have the right intentions or that he doesn't care for the welfare of people. He's clearly not someone who approves of violence and the right's insistence that this is the case comes across as hysterical and deranged.

He doubtlessly cares about the welfare of his people, but the road to hell is paved with good intentions. Hugo Chavez probably cared about his people too. As for Corbyn not being someone who approves of violence, surely you could see why some think that him speaking of his "friends of Hamas and Hezbollah" suggests otherwise?

[DavidB.]

Breitbart is not antisemitic.

Corbyn, in many respects, is an unpleasant man and he's clearly a bumbling fool but it's pretty hard to argue that he doesn't have the right intentions or that he doesn't care for the welfare of people. He's clearly not someone who approves of violence and the right's insistence that this is the case comes across as hysterical and deranged.

He doubtlessly cares about the welfare of his people, but the road to hell is paved with good intentions. Hugo Chavez probably cared about his people too. As for Corbyn not being someone who approves of violence, surely you could see why some think that him speaking of his "friends of Hamas and Hezbollah" suggests otherwise?

My argument is that the right's anti-Corbyn isn't persuasive, not that Corbyn is Good (he is not) or that he's anywhere near my first choice. You'll have a hard time convincing anyone that he approves of Hamas or Hezbollah and their atrocities. A much more credible criticism is that he's a dunce who doesn't understand basic facts about the organizations and, thus, should not be PM.

There is no misunderstanding, I get your argument. Of course we're both deeply biased here (even if I know Corbyn is far from being your first choice), and I may be wrong, but I really don't think Tories will have a hard time convincing people that he approves of Hamas or Hezbollah at all. This, indeed, does not necessarily mean he approves of everything they do, but I feel I may already be pretty generous to him here. Corbyn is not naive or stupid, he's just deeply ideological.

[DavidB.]

Big differences between pollsters. 45-33 vs. 42-38... wonder which one it's going to look like.

[DavidB.]

I would have thought the Lib Dems would be the ideal party for British Jews. They are pro-Europe socially liberal but relatively pro free market as well. What's not to like?

The Lib Dems are largely non-interventionist, which tends to include tepid feelings about Israel and support for Israel and moreover attracts some of the kind of people who have less savory views on the subject (regardless of the fact that the party itself does not hold such views).

In the US the Republican try to be more pro-Israel than most Israelis are while the Democrats are much more "nuanced" on the Middle East and yet American Jews favour Democrats over Republicans by about a 4 to 1 margin. Why the difference?

Well, most importantly, U.S. Jews aren't UK Jews?

[DavidB.]

British Jews used to vote Labour by similar margins. Labour, especially under Corbyn but even before then the 'anti-Zionist' 'boycott Israel' nutjobs have been getting more and more closing linked with the left and the Labour party.

I suspect that in the Democratic Party the breaks have been put on much more against this tendency because the Jewish vote is proportionately much higher and the Muslim vote proportionately much lower than in the UK. I suspect that once this tendency reaches a certain critical mass within the Democrats you'll see a similar migration of Jewish votes in the US.

Don't underestimate the vast cultural and political difference between British Jews and American Jews. This is the most important factor. Everything else is less important. But the difference between the Tories and the Republicans matters a great deal too.

[DavidB.]

British Jews used to vote Labour by similar margins. Labour, especially under Corbyn but even before then the 'anti-Zionist' 'boycott Israel' nutjobs have been getting more and more closing linked with the left and the Labour party.

I suspect that in the Democratic Party the breaks have been put on much more against this tendency because the Jewish vote is proportionately much higher and the Muslim vote proportionately much lower than in the UK. I suspect that once this tendency reaches a certain critical mass within the Democrats you'll see a similar migration of Jewish votes in the US.

Don't underestimate the vast cultural and political difference between British Jews and American Jews. This is the most important factor. Everything else is less important. But the difference between the Tories and the Republicans matters a great deal too.

Could you elaborate on the cultural differences?

Jews across the diaspora are often more progressive or left-wing than the "ethnic natives" of their countries, but American Jews stand out in this regard. As a group, they are more progressive both in their political outlook and in their religious outlook than other diaspora populations (the Reform movement is much, much stronger in the U.S. than anywhere else in the world). The history of immigration, anti-Semitism and "being refugees" is simply part of the American Jewish DNA. Of course Jews in other diaspora countries carry this history with them as well, but it's often less pronounced, less of an important aspect to their (our) identity. American Jews take being progressive and considering "social justice" in the modern sense of the phrase to be important to a completely different level, even if similar Jewish movements exist outside the U.S. too.

As others (and I myself) said, however, the difference between UK politics and U.S. politics, between Labour and the Democrats, and between the Tories and the GOP matter a great deal too. Many American Jews are very secular, yet America is relatively religious and religion is important to American politics. Therefore, most Jews in the U.S. really dislike Christian politics, yet Christian politics have become a highly important component of GOP politics, which automatically draws Jews to the Democratic Party. In UK politics, however, class is the main dividing line and religion is less important (to politics in general and, therefore, also to both parties' politics), making the Conservatives more palatable to Jews than the Republicans. Add in the fact that UK Jews live in a European context where antisemitic attacks from radical Muslims are the biggest threat to Jewish communities, which is simply not the case in the U.S. (where the far right is probably the biggest threat), and that anti-Israeli sentiments are much more mainstream in British politics than in U.S. politics, and you see how British Jews come to different conclusions.

Of course it's difficult to say which aspect is more important, since they've obviously influenced each other.

[DavidB.]

Corbyn won't retaliate to a nuclear attack that isn't going to happen? outrageous!

Things can change a lot in 5 years. People deserve to know that if we are attacked, we are not just gonna sit back.

yea man, i'm sure that the irradiated zombies living in the rubble of post-nuke london would be primarily concerned about britain's ability to incinerate moscow or pyongyang and not about the fact that they are  dying a horrible death.

If we are attacked, we have to attack back. This should be one of the most uncontroversial things ever.

Retaliating against the country that attacked you isn't controversial. Killing thousands of innocent citizens of that country is.

[DavidB.]

I'm surprised there have been almost zero constituency polls in this election campaign. in 2015 there were a ton of them and it was interesting to see how the natiuonwide swings were being replicated at the local level.

Most of them were trash, that's why they decided not to waste time and money on it again.

[DavidB.]

Corbyn won't retaliate to a nuclear attack that isn't going to happen? outrageous!

Things can change a lot in 5 years. People deserve to know that if we are attacked, we are not just gonna sit back.

yea man, i'm sure that the irradiated zombies living in the rubble of post-nuke london would be primarily concerned about britain's ability to incinerate moscow or pyongyang and not about the fact that they are  dying a horrible death.

If we are attacked, we have to attack back. This should be one of the most uncontroversial things ever.

Retaliating against the country that attacked you isn't controversial. Killing thousands of innocent citizens of that country is.

Your solution is what?

Targeting strategic places, state institutions, infrastructure and politicians responsible for and supportive of the attack.

[DavidB.]

I agree but if you think large numbers of civilians are not also going to die there, you are mistaken.

Still different than nuking a place.

[DavidB.]

2 terrorist attacks in the span of a few days would seem be a huge failure on the Gov't

Shut the f**k up.

[DavidB.]

Who gives a sh*t about politics,

arguably the terrorists.

Why? Attacks like this one happen outside election season too. Much more likely to coincide with the Ramadan, especially given ISIS' interpretation of it...

[DavidB.]

Labour, SNP, LibDem, PC and Greens with exactly 326 seats.

I'm expecting a Labour-Sinn Fein coalition government.

Had almost forgotten that SF are Corbyn's "friends" too. I could easily see them take their seats to prop up a Corbyn government.

[DavidB.]

It's not "fake", but it's pretty misleading since it's not clear from the letter that this guy is actually a Liberal Democrat.

[DavidB.]

Corbyn/Labour might come into serious trouble in the final days:

(... enter pictures of Corbyn addressing an Islamic terrorist group back in 2002 ...)

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F***ing incredible.

[DavidB.]

If I were British I'd be panicking right now, honestly.

[DavidB.]

That's why May has been trying to do non-stop since the beginning of the campaign, without success because people care more about economy and healthcare, on which she has a weak record.

Remains to be seen. The Tories are still expected to gain seats.

[DavidB.]

I think this election was never about winning a huge number of seats (even if that was indeed expected and seen as a nice side-effect) and always about buying time (i.e. two years) in government to mitigate the negative effects of Brexit. Suppose Brexit goes wrong and there is an election in 2020. Voters would (rightfully) blame the Tories and they could have been out of power for more than a decade.

[DavidB.]

It's quite funny that Corbyn might actually beat Blair in 2005 in the popular vote and still lose to the Tories substantially. Even though I can't stand Corbyn and his ilk it really goes to show how dysfunctional FPTP is.

Mainly due to the fact that the Lib Dems got 22% in that election and will get about 15% fewer in this election. The continuous underrepresentation of third parties absolutely makes FPTP undemocratic, but I don't think Labour falling short of a majority this time while winning in 2005 with about the same share of the vote proves that point by itself (but perhaps you implied all this ).

[DavidB.]

I wouldn't easily rule out polls where Labour are doing (relatively) well, because, if anything, pollsters have the tendency to overcompensate for the direction in which were wrong last time (their underestimation of the Tories in 2015).

I have the idea that this is exactly what YouGov did in their last poll, given that they have shown a much smaller gap in other polls over the last weeks...