UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Telegraph News‏Verified account @TelegraphNews  18s18 seconds ago
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 Ukip to win 'handful' of seats at June election, Paul Nuttall says

Been there done that

[Terry the Fat Shark]

I completely forgot the local elections were next week 0_0

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/03/voting-intention-conservatives-48-labour-29-2-3-ma/ here's the Yougov poll for crosstabs

Fun statistic from the crosstabs, only 50% of 2015 lib dem voters plan on voting for them again this time around.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/03/voting-intention-conservatives-48-labour-29-2-3-ma/ here's the Yougov poll for crosstabs

Fun statistic from the crosstabs, only 50% of 2015 lib dem voters plan on voting for them again this time around.

That's a bit weird though, they lose half of their supporters, got 8% last time and would still end up with 10% according to this poll.

9% of labour 2015 voters and 5% of conservative 2015 voters go to them

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Also has Conservatives on 37% in Scotland and tied with Labour in the North of England but eh not drawing conclusions based on a nationwide poll like this

[Terry the Fat Shark]

BBC gets smacked around every cycle, they are always accused of supporting the ruling party

[Terry the Fat Shark]

I guess LAB is everywhere except for NI and Speaker. 

CON is everywhere except for Speaker and has some candidates in NI. 

Other than Speaker where else is LIB not contesting outside of NI ?

It seems UKIP and Green are contesting in Speaker's seat again.

Seats being contested by UKIP larger than I thought although I think some of them are in NI.

why snp 59 when scotland have 60 seats?

? It has 59

[Terry the Fat Shark]

As contentious as the Iraq war was, I find it funny that its aftermath still impacts British political discourse, but it rarely comes up in America.

Kind of tanked Jeb!

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://www.britaindecides.co.uk/single-post/2017/05/26/Election-Post-6-THAT-YouGov-poll Interesting analysis here

[Terry the Fat Shark]

@britainelects
Here's how we think the result would look if the election were held today:

CON 362 (+32)
LAB 206 (-26)

http://britainelects.com/nowcast/

I believe this as much as I believe YouGov nailing it to the percentage.

This is way more realistic than the Yougov model (but I also think this is still underestimating the Tories, or maybe I'm insane, we'll see in a week)

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Craig Mackinlay of Thanet South being charged for expenses fraud in the 2015 GE

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Anyways, will campaigning be suspended and if so for how long?

[Terry the Fat Shark]

If this momentum stays with Labour until June 8th they will win.

eh, 2-3 other polls today showed the Tory lead increasing so it's hard to say where the momentum is right now

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Campaigning will be suspended for today (Sunday), looks like it will resume on Monday.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

There is so much noise in this election I really don't know what to expect anymore, but, my prediction is out there.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/872201058671628292 Nicola Sturgeon said during the Scottish leaders debate that Kezia Dugdale said that Labour should not block the 2nd Scottish Independence Referendum the day after Brexit won.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

who else are we expecting "final polls" from today?

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Think we are waiting for YouGov still.

Final survation polls comes out in 10 minutes

[Terry the Fat Shark]

(for exact changes from last poll):
Westminster voting intention:

CON: 42% (-)
LAB: 35% (-3)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
GRN: 2% (-)

(via @YouGov)