UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[ApatheticAustrian]

well, i guess elections in 2-3 years would have been painful for the tories.

hopefully the libdems overtake UKIP in fantasy minority vote country.

[ApatheticAustrian]

is there any chance of the SNP over-playing their cards through hammering a not-totally-popular leave-strategy in the hour of crisis or is May covering their bases through simply blocking it?

[ApatheticAustrian]

18/70 in Scotland. Oh wow.

what are those numbers?

[ApatheticAustrian]

Approval/disapproval, I think.

re: the national government?

[ApatheticAustrian]

Approval/disapproval, I think.

re: the national government?

No, Corbyn

i am stupid.

thanks!

[ApatheticAustrian]

britain is going to pay the money it owes....60 bn, i guess, the rest is bargaining.

[ApatheticAustrian]

If I was to advise Theresa May, id tell her to walk, those unelected unaccountable Eurocrats, Dont want a deal, they just wanna punish Britain and make a lesson out us.

everyone in EU leadership got elected directly or indirectly, like in any other system.

and....just curious...what happens after britain is walking?

[ApatheticAustrian]

no deal isn't great and will have consequences on both the UK and EU nations. However, you can't do a deal with people that aren't willing to do a deal, and that's how Brussels are coming across.

oh, it's totally simple:

cameron screwed this whole thing, cause he never ever really was able to make a good bargain with us, since he had decided to do the referendum anyway....he would have gotten a better deal, if he had proposed, that the referendum would only happen if the negotiations were failing.


there are atm multiple levels to deal with the EU.

non-members without any say at all.

semi-members who adopt the "four freedoms" and are able to stay away from other stuff...and have some influence.

full members who adopt everything and have endless amounts of influence to shape the union itself.

the UK wishes to be better positioned than semi-members but without the need to adopt the fundamental ground rules of the EU.....why should the majority of 28 states adapt to fulfill the wishes of a non-member and even create an example of failure without any upside?

the UK just hasn't got any cards left to play and every honest remain campaigner told you so before.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Without the UK, momentum could build up for other exits and the Euro could cripple.

the biggest chances for other exits always have been the netherlands and france and those threats seem to have passed.

depending on the final result, i could even argue atm, the UK leaving has - together with trump -reminded the other member states to come together even more.

[ApatheticAustrian]

miss may, who called the snap election - besides some other reasons like obliterating the opposition - to become a north-korean-like mandate for her brussels negotiations and is practically running against the EU....is blaming the EU for meddling in this election or wishing for brexit failure?

i am not sure, if this combination of dadaisme, tautologies and cynisme is even legal in most states.

[ApatheticAustrian]

labour polling would be "okayish" in germany....it is suicide in UK....

the older i get, the more i doubt majority systems are useful.

[ApatheticAustrian]

so, we are now at "labour won't lose votes but gets screwed by the british system"-level.

[ApatheticAustrian]

"red ed" is a shill, it is known.

[ApatheticAustrian]

interesting.

well, the real exciting election won't be this one but the next.

[ApatheticAustrian]

aren't the times, the sun, the dm and the torygraph pro-tories nearly all the time? (yaya, the sun was pro-blair, i know)

[ApatheticAustrian]

why wasn't labour able to find someone with macron's charisma?

it must be possible to mix far-leftism with someone not connected to the 70ies.

may is trying to become merkel and govern from the PURITAN center, which could backfire if someone was able to make a good case.

corbyn is blocking a good chance, even if he fires up partisans.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i know this is premature and labour's gains could be invisible in terms of seats but.....can we guess, which regions could be modestly swinging pro-labour?

[ApatheticAustrian]

in the conservative media the "dementia tax" is talked about a lot but i guess that's not soooo important inside of the UK.

[ApatheticAustrian]

what labour could win right now with another leader.....

[ApatheticAustrian]

this election is about getting a fake mandate for brexit, before getting crushed during the negotiations, which would make the next elections rather painful.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i remember the last minute surge, benefiting the front national in france.

[ApatheticAustrian]

how much labour btw need, to win even one more seat then in 2015....

well, i guess i ask the question in the wrong way....

wouldn't the conservative even win new seats probably, if labour would get more voters, hypothetically?

scotland alone is madness.

[ApatheticAustrian]

it's not about iraq, libya was much bigger mistake.

?

on what scale could libya by a bigger mistake?

less death, less chaos, richer country, more reasonable talks?

libya is a mess but compared to iraq?....

[ApatheticAustrian]

in most other countries this woud leave labour with a strong minority position.

in uk it is going to be a bloodbath.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Where is all the Very Serious analysis that Corbyn will lose in a landslide for the Tories?

he is going to, i guess....

the UK sys makes it quite possible.