UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So how likely is it that Theresa May outperforms Blair's 1997 numbers?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I have recently seen Labour gain some slight traction in YouGov polls, much to the delight of British twitter. Should this at all concern May and the Tories, is YouGov trash, or is it just noise and it will soon subside?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yikes! That Dianne Abbott interview was a blessing directly from heaven for the Tories.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (-)
LAB: 28% (-)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 8% (-)
GRN: 4% (-)
(ICMResearch / 28 Apr - 02 May)

Jeremy Corbyn as Leader of the Opposition has been
Effective: 13%
Ineffective: 69%
(YouGov / 27 - 28 Apr)


Theresa May as Prime Minister has been
Effective: 46%
Ineffective: 34%
(YouGov / 27 - 28 Apr)

As I have suspected, there is no "Labour Surge." It's just YouGov's poor polling.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

PanelBase (4/28-5/2)

CON: 47% (-2)
LAB: 30% (+3)
LDEM: 10% (NC)
UKIP: 5% (NC)
GRN: 2% (-1)

Labour gains but is still miles behind Tories who are comfortably ahead of Blair's 1997 popular vote results. It will be interesting to see how the Diane Abbott gaffe effects the polling.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Tony Blair says he is returning to politics.  What does this mean? Will he try to capture the leadership of the LAB party after a diasterous election result and Corbyn pushed out?  I assume this not possible with him not being a MP.  If so will he, assuming the LABs get hammered in the election, form SDP Mark II and try to form an alliance with LIBs?

My guess is Blair will go into anti-Brexit activism rather than party politics.

That will only make things worse for Labour. Blair will turn off already-disenfranchised Lab voters and squash whatever momentum Corbyn was carrying recently.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So, things are heating up:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39787353

She's not wrong. Without the UK, momentum could build up for other exits and the Euro could cripple. Of course they are doing all they can to make sure May doesn't triumph in June.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 44% (-4)
LAB: 28% (+4)
LDEM: 11% (-)
UKIP: 8% (+1)
(TNS_UK / 04 - 08 May)

Quite an outlier. Take it with a grain of salt.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Quite an outlier. Take it with a grain of salt.

TNS don't have the best of reputations so salt is usually advisable when consuming their polls, but, and with all the respect to which you are due, I am not sure if you understand what the word 'outlier' means.

I'm sure you have more things to do in life than to continuously insult my intelligence. Begone.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So it's pretty much guaranteed that Theresa May is going to win close to 48% of the popular vote.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Theresa May buries Thatcherism


Tory Manifesto
https://issuu.com/conservativeparty/docs/ge2017_manifesto_a5_digital


First time since 1979 no classical liberal party running for office, New political era...

She's very good at portraying herself as a moderate. Remember her first speech as PM?

It's not about that. It's about being 'strong and stable'.

That's what is going to win her the election.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah, May just possibly blew what could have been the greatest Torie win since Thatcher and Major into possibly a Hung Parliament or weak Torie majority.

I highly doubt Labour will make any gains in this election.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Now before everyone gets excited, just note that the Tories are still above Blair's 1997 PV total and is still on track to a comfortable majority. Yes, the manifestos did this but May is the one to make the best out of a terrible situation.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Even with the Tory polling slump they can still net atleast 390 seats so I don't know what Labour is celebrating here...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

YouGov has Labour now polling at 38% today. The poll was taken from the 24th - 25th.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Strange. On Predictit, the odds of the Conservatives winning less than 329 seats in the election (which I find really bullish) has zoomed to the top of betting boards but the odds of May staying as prime minister has inched up.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I know it might sound funny but, I'm sensing a Conservative rebound.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It seems the conservatives have been stabilizing double digit leads in the polls in the last week of campaigning, minus in YouGov. Should give them about 350-360 seats. I'm optimistic about May's chances.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Financial Times has endorsed May. Labour Twitter is unhappy about it.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yougov.  CON 42 LAB 39 ... gap of 3

Dear lord. I know I'm not the one to discredit polls but YouGov has been inconsistent throughout this entire campaign.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I really hope ICM and PanelBase are correct. I have such a distaste for Corbyn, his leadership skills, and his policies.

I'd love to hear how a U.S. Democrat with the name "PittsburghSteel" could possibly support someone like May. (Or Merkel, for that matter)

I apologize for the confusion. I'm not a working class democrat therefore people like Schulz, Corbyn, Trump, or Sanders do not appeal to me.  My name does give that thought.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I mean that's an incredibly dumb thing to believe for lots of reasons (biggest for me other than the inclusion of bloody Trump in a list of politicians who are on the left was... Schultz?  I mean I like the guy for a few reasons (I'm a lot more pro-EU than I was a few months back), but he's not exactly on the left of the SPD - pro-TTIP for example which I disagree with a lot) but disagreeing with a left politician isn't an excuse to support the Tories in anything, because the policies of the latter are bad and you should oppose them - unless you like the idea of stealing the homes of dementia patients...

1) My views aren't dumb. 2) I'm a moderate democrat, something I forgot to include. 3) we are here to talk about the British election.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Also, who won the debate? And will it change anything? (Macron for example did improve quite a bit after his debate with Le Pen, but that election barely resembles the British one)

Well from what I have heard there was really no defining moment in the debate so probably no change. Although Labour-dominated Twitter was head-over-heels for Corbyn as usual.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

y name does give that thought.

An apt username for you would be Dunning-Kruger.

Do you ever get tired of hurdling pointless and ineffective insults at people? It's pathetic.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Survation

CON 40
LAB 39
LIB 8
UKIP 5

That's Tory -6%, Labour +5%.

These polls are almost becoming as unbearable as the 2016 election ones.