UK General Election, June 8th 2017

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Even with the Tory polling slump they can still net atleast 390 seats so I don't know what Labour is celebrating here...

No way would they gain 60 seats on a 1-2% swing. Plausible on a 4%+ swing though.

There are going to be some hugely different trends across the country, so it seems pretty hard to predict how vote shares are going to translate into numbers of seats with any real confidence.

Also, not saying I don't believe that Welsh poll, but if it's true, would seem to indicate traditional Labour voters are returning to the fold in huge numbers (unless the entire populations of Cardiff and Ceredigion are planning on voting Labour).

Maybe they finally realized that May is literally just repeating the same 8 words and thinks she can win purely on those words?

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Westminster (Wales): LAB lead 10
LAB 44(+9)
CON 34(-7)
PC 9(-2)
LD 6(-1)
UKIP 5(+1)
YouGov/ITV/Cardiff Uni

So it was -> CON - 41, Labour - 33 & now this.

It went from being Con +8 to Lab +10. That is an 18% swing, that "COULD" decide most of the competitive seats in Labour's favour if this holds on in Wales !

One good thing was that David Cameron seemed humble & with empathy while May with all her tough woman image, comes across as somewhat unrelatable sometimes with ordinary folks !

Many people have been skeptic about the tories winning Wales,
Wales haven't voted Tory since the 19th century



PM approval rating was taken after dementia tax was announced
Its the most important election indicator,
with May high approval rating its hard to imagine the tories not getting big majority

It doesn't look like Approval Rating had an effect in 2015, with Cameron growing his majority with a negative approval, perhaps it will be the opposite this time.

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Westminster (Wales): LAB lead 10
LAB 44(+9)
CON 34(-7)
PC 9(-2)
LD 6(-1)
UKIP 5(+1)
YouGov/ITV/Cardiff Uni

So it was -> CON - 41, Labour - 33 & now this.

It went from being Con +8 to Lab +10. That is an 18% swing, that "COULD" decide most of the competitive seats in Labour's favour if this holds on in Wales !

One good thing was that David Cameron seemed humble & with empathy while May with all her tough woman image, comes across as somewhat unrelatable sometimes with ordinary folks !

Many people have been skeptic about the tories winning Wales,
Wales haven't voted Tory since the 19th century



PM approval rating was taken after dementia tax was announced
Its the most important election indicator,
with May high approval rating its hard to imagine the tories not getting big majority

It doesn't look like Approval Rating had an effect in 2015, with Cameron growing his majority with a negative approval, perhaps it will be the opposite this time.

Ed Milliband had lower approval ratings then Cameron

And I assume Corbyn is even lower than Milliband, correct?

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what labour could win right now with another leader.....

Only Corbyn could find a way to lose against a campaign with LITERALLY JUST 8 WORDS.

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Nicola Sturgeon's record just caught up with her.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0HzQOEBQ7M

>When you finally realize you can't just yell Scotland Forever and be reelected, you have to put work into helping your constituents.

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Now then, back to #LabourSurge.

Yeah, I have a feeling that is over.

Well if the Strong And Stable Bot breaks down again....

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This one's unintentionally funny.

https://photos.google.com/photo/AF1QipNwALSWOI1-kcyIy0By43yozAO26nUJHbByBApb

Error 404 not found?

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Survation poll

CON           43
LAB            37
LIB              8
UKIP           4

Survation have 82% of 18-24s certain to vote and turnout overall 81.2%

implying highest voter turnout since 1951....

this poll seem utterly flawed

@election_data 
Some conjecture about turnout % of 18-24s at EU referendum. BES had it at 60% of those registered but this graph says 37%

Also the Greens at 1% and SNP at 2%.

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Guardian/ICM

Conservatives - 45% (-2%)
Labour - 33% (NC)
Lib Dems - 8% (-1%)
UKIP - 5% (+1%)
Greens - 3% (+1%)

Doesn't seem like Manchester has given the Tories the kind of boost we might have expected

ICM generational gap in a chart

I can't see the Tories doing as badly as 15% with the 18-25 group (nor will Labour do as well as 73%). As a bit of context YouGov estimates that the Tories got 32% of the 18-29 vote in 2015. Even allowing for Brexit, seen as their vote share is up nationally it is difficult to see their vote share amongst the 18-25 group going below ~25%.

I'm willing to bet they do a bit worse in the 65+ Crowd based on the Dementia tax, even though they reversed on it the voters will still remember.

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The YouGov poll is just nonsense. I think, and i believe i already said this here, polls are once again overestimating Labour. The Tories are confortable ahead by around 10% IMO. On election night the exit poll will probably be bad for Labour and David Dimbleby, or who the BBC will choose to cover election night, will ask John Curtice what the hell is going on and by 4am everybody will say that he's a genius. It will 2015 all over again i'm afraid.

If anything this poll is going to help the Tories.  Its going to get anyone who thought "Hey I like May but I want to limit her power so she doesn't do something crazy" to vote Tory on the 8th to stop the "Unelectable Nonsense Chaos Terrorist" from getting into Number 10.  As well as boosting traditional Tory turnout to stop Corbyn.

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Latest Tory poll leads:

YouGov: 3pt
Survation: 6pt
Kantar: 10pt
FT poll of polls: 9pt
ICM: 12pt
ComRes: 12pt
Panelbase: 15pt

Let it be noted that Kantar had the Libdems at 11%, and Survation had youth turnout at 82%, while ICM had it at 50%.

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@paulwaugh  
The Wolverhampton Express & Star has endorsed Theresa May. Didn't endorse anyone last 2 elections.

https://www.expressandstar.com/news/voices/opinions/2017/05/31/star-comment-may-has-manner-for-top-office/

Oh boy more anti-corbyn Propaganda.  I assume this is a big deal that they endorsed May right?

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Trusting any poll at this point is completely pointless, the election could be anywhere from a Labour Majority of 10 to the Tories at 400 Seats.  Just wait for the Exit Poll to come in on the 8th, then we look at the polls and see who was right.

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Tories should get 375+, anything else is an embarrassment and a failure for May.