UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[DL]

Allow me to be a bit contrarian, but I'm actually glad that May is calling an early election. Its abundantly clear that Jeremy Corbyn has been an unmitigated FLOP as Labour leader. But its also abundantly clear that there is no way he will quit until he has led the party through one election. Its obvious that Labour will be crushed under his leadership whether the election is in June 2017 or in May 2020...only after he loses will Labour be in a position to pick a new competent leader and have a chance to win the subsequent election.

So, I would rather have the following chronology: Labour gets demolished under Corbyn in June 2017, he quickly resigns, someone sane is picked as the new leader and there is at least a possibility that under a new leader Labour could be competitive in 2022...as opposed to Labour declines and dissolves in disarray for the next three years under Corbyn's feeble leadership to the point that by 2020, there is nothing left standing, THEN he and his party get destroyed and then we have to wait until 2025 before Labour has a chance to be competitive again in a general election.

At least this way the next election where the Labour Party could conceivable be competitive will be in 2022 rather than 2025...I'm trying hard to find a silver lining and that's all i find

[DL]

This might be more like 1987; Corbyn could get 33% of the vote, but with May at 45-46%, you'd still be looking at a near 100 majority.

Kinnock stayed on after 1987 after all...

Yes but in 1987 Kinnock gained vote share and seats for Labour after the disaster of 1983. It makes a difference whether you gain ground or lose ground

[DL]

Campaigning for June’s general election has been suspended.

That will last about 24 hours at most

[DL]

I do hate to be the one to start speculation over the advantages of a tragic incident and I do ask to be forgiven but yes, this will surely benefit the Tories.

Who knows? A year ago everyone thought the assassination of Jo Cox one week before the referendum would give a boost to the remain side. Didn't happen. More recently a lot of people posting here were 100% certain that LePen would get a last minute boost because of the shootings on the Champs Élysée just three days before the first round in France. Instead she actually did worse than the final polls projected. So who knows.

[DL]

So whatever happened to the theory that the terrorist attack in Manchester was 100% ABSOLUTELY GUARANTEED to help the Tories?

[DL]

"Surge" is a bit of an overstatement...at best Labour will lose by 8-10 points instead of losing by 18-20 points - whihc likely means they will lose about 20 seats rather than losing 100 seats. No one seriously thinks there is the slightest possibility of Labour actually winning the election. IMHO, a lot of people in the UK don't want to see Theresa May waltz away with too big a win and have no serious opposition at all. We are a looooooong way from getting to a point where people start to think that Corbyn ebing PM is a serious possibility - we are still in the realm of "how big a landslide will the Tories get?"

[DL]

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 44% (-2)
LAB: 38% (+4)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 5% (-2)
(ORB_Int / 24 - 25 May)

Well that makes - what - four polls in a row that have been in field AFTEr the Manchester bombing and every single one shows Labour gaining in the Tories...so whatever happened to the theory that the attack was 100% TOTALLY CERTAIN BEYOND A SHADOW OF A DOUBT to give a boost to May and that Tories???

[DL]

Labour's problems are far deeper than Corbyn's personality or his "far left" policies. 

Yes, but in some ways Labour's problems are also much LESS severe than people thought just a few months ago. Remember the days when the conventional wisdom was that between Corbyn taking Labour wayy off to the "loony left" and the Brexit vote created a huge opportunity for a centre left 100% pro-EU option was supposed to give the Lib Dems a huge amount of oxygen and lead to them making a big comeback??? Whatever happened to that?

Also, just a few months ago the conventional wisdom was that UKIP would target Labour's "heartland" seats in the north that had voted heavily for Brexit and that the working class vote there would go the way of working class voters in the US going to Trump and working class voters in France going to LePen...again, whatever happened to that? These days UKIP is in low single digits.

It may not seem like much of a consolation if the Tories get a big majority, but at least Labour is going to be left as the only viable opposition party in the UK and one thing they will not have to do is look over their shoulder at a resurgent Lib Dem and UKIP encroaching on their territory

[DL]

I wonder whether all this new momentum for Labour could start having any impact in Scotland and start moving unionist votes back to Labour from the Tories in which case Labour could pick up half a dozen Scottish seats. Just wondering

[DL]

Aren't Jews also overwhelmingly anti-Brexit?

[DL]

I would have thought the Lib Dems would be the ideal party for British Jews. They are pro-Europe socially liberal but relatively pro free market as well. What's not to like?

[DL]

I would have thought the Lib Dems would be the ideal party for British Jews. They are pro-Europe socially liberal but relatively pro free market as well. What's not to like?

The Lib Dems are largely non-interventionist, which tends to include tepid feelings about Israel and support for Israel and moreover attracts some of the kind of people who have less savory views on the subject (regardless of the fact that the party itself does not hold such views).

In the US the Republican try to be more pro-Israel than most Israelis are while the Democrats are much more "nuanced" on the Middle East and yet American Jews favour Democrats over Republicans by about a 4 to 1 margin. Why the difference?

[DL]

YouGov/ITV/Cardiff Uni (Wales Westminster):
CON 35 (+1)
LAB 46 (+2)
LD 5 (-1)
UKIP 5 (=)
PC 8 (-1)
29th-31st May
N=1,014

If those numbers in Wales hold - not only would Labour retain all ist current seats but it could even win back 2 or 3 extremely marginal Tory seats (i.e. Gower, Cardiff North and Vale of Clwyd)

[DL]

Is this some ultra rightwing Jewish rag funded by people like Sheldon Adelson? I'm Jewish and i'm inured to this garbage

@JewishNewsUK
THIS WEEK's @JewishNewsUK front page. @Theresa_May writes exclusively. @jeremycorbyn ... still tumbleweed.

[DL]

I'm surprised there have been almost zero constituency polls in this election campaign. in 2015 there were a ton of them and it was interesting to see how the natiuonwide swings were being replicated at the local level.

[DL]

Apparently the latest Survation poll done by phone says Tories 41%, Labour 40% - fielded June 2-3

[DL]

Apparently the latest Survation poll done by phone says Tories 41%, Labour 40% - fielded June 2-3

The one before had Conservatives at 40% and Labour at 39% on June 3rd.

That one released on June 3rd was online. This one is a phone poll

[DL]

What is the tipping point where Labour could start winning back some of their old heartland seats in Scotland that all went SnP in 2015

[DL]

I thought Labours gains were also coming from the Tories so they could help split the unionist vote and help the SNP hold onto seats that are vulnerable to the Tories

[DL]

At 5pm EST - they chime big ben and then do the exit poll announcement