UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[YL]

Constituencies won by the Tories in 2015 which voted more than 55% Remain according to the Hanretty estimates.  Those Lib Dem in 2010 are in orange.  A handful of others have recent Lib Dem history (Richmond Park, Oxford West & Abingdon, Winchester, Guildford, arguably York Outer which was supposedly notionally Lib Dem when created).  Any other plausible Lib Dem targets in the list?

over 70% Remain:

Battersea
Putney
Richmond Park (lost in by-election)
Cities of London & Westminster
Chelsea & Fulham

65% to 70% Remain:

Finchley & Golders Green
Kensington
Bath
Twickenham

60% to 65% Remain:

Enfield Southgate
St Albans
Oxford West & Abingdon
Reading East
South Cambridgeshire
Altrincham & Sale West
Cardiff North
Hitchin & Harpenden
Winchester

55% to 60% Remain:

South West Surrey
Bristol North West
Chipping Barnet
Warwick & Leamington
Guildford
Rushcliffe
Kingston & Surbiton
Esher & Walton
Cheadle
Hendon
Wokingham
Cheltenham
Henley
Brighton Kemptown
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale
Woking
Tunbridge Wells (!)
York Outer
South East Cambridgeshire

[YL]

  While it doesn't look like it will be happening, I'm intrigued by the idea of an anti-Tory electoral pact and its effectiveness.  Would it in fact help to win seats if Greens, Lib Dems and Labour put up one candidate in the main marginal or thought to be marginal seats?  Or would there be a counter movement, say UKIP candidates standing down in favor of all solid pro-Brexit tory candidates?
    One would think that there would be at least some room for an anti-Tory pact, at least in some limited seats, where two of the three opponents would have no chance to win, but even this doesn't seem likely.  Seems to me a missed opportunity.

There's probably little advantage in a formal pact.  In a place like Bath (for example) in this election (not in 2015) most Labour supporters who would vote Lib Dem if Labour didn't stand are likely to vote Lib Dem tactically anyway, and a Labour endorsement might put some right-wing voters off voting Lib Dem.  And in Lab/Con marginals it's not at all clear that the absence of a Lib Dem candidate would even move things in the right direction, while those places tend to have few enough Green voters that their withdrawal wouldn't make much difference (and of course some of them will be Green die-hards who wouldn't vote Labour anyway).

And it would be horrendously difficult to actually get a pact going.  There are quite a few Labour people who hate the Lib Dems, and vice versa.  The Greens seem keenest on the idea, but what would Labour and the Lib Dems actually be able to give them?

So the most that's likely to happen is some tactical voting campaigns, which won't be officially endorsed by the parties.  The Greens may unilaterally withdraw in a few areas, but it won't make much difference, and I'd be surprised if either Labour or the Lib Dems did.

[YL]

Well, it's increasingly clear that all sensible people in this country who want a decent relationship with our neighbours should swallow any concerns they have about Jeremy Corbyn and, if they live in a Lab/Con battleground constituency, vote Labour on 8 June.  (And if they live in a LibDem/Con battleground, they should vote Lib Dem, and if they live in an SNP/Con battleground, they should vote SNP.  Even if they hate the idea of Scottish independence.)

[YL]

LucidTalk Northern Ireland poll (27-29 Apr)
DUP - 29.4% (+3.7)
SF - 27.7% (+3.2)
UUP - 14.8% (-1.2)
SDLP - 12.4% (-1.5)
All - 10.2% (+1.6)

With a uniform swing, this would see the DUP up 2, SF up 1, the UUP wiped out, and the SDLP down 1.

It's Northern Ireland, so there won't be a uniform swing.  (And the accuracy of polling is questionable...)

[YL]

YouGov poll of London, with changes compared to 2015:

Lab 42 (-2)
Con 36 (+2)
Lib Dem 14 (+6)
UKIP - 6 (-2)
Greens - 3 (-2)

The likes of Wes Streeting (Ilford North) would have a fighting chance on these figures.

Do you have crosstabs for that? I couldn't see anything on the YouGov website.

I suspect that Labour will be holding up much better in Inner London than Outer London.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/10/voting-intention-london-conservatives-36-labour-41/

No breakdown by area (not that I'd be particularly likely to trust one if there was one).

[YL]

David Ward, the former Lib Dem MP for Bradford East who Tim Farron barred from standing for the Lib Dems again, is standing for the same constituency as an independent.

Salma Yaqoob, who was the leading figure in Respect in Birmingham, is standing as a "no description" candidate in Bradford West.

The Lib Dems have no candidate in Skipton & Ripon, apparently as part of a deal with the Greens who are not standing in Harrogate & Knaresborough.

[YL]

I get to choose from

Nick Clegg (Lib Dem)
Jared O'Mara (Lab)
Logan Robin (Green)
John Thurley (UKIP)
Ian Walker (Con)
Steven Winstone (SDP)

That's the Continuity Continuity SDP, I think.  The candidate is ex-UKIP.

[YL]

Other than Speaker where else is LIB not contesting outside of NI ?

Brighton Pavilion and Skipton & Ripon.  The latter, as mentioned above, is part of a weird local deal with the Greens which involved the Greens pulling out in the Lib Dems' optimistic target seat of Harrogate & Knaresborough.  The former is also to endorse the Greens although I think that was unilateral.

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There are no UKIP candidates on the NI list CrabCake posted.

[YL]

I expect the lib dems to make gains in the south west of London, but i dont know where will they make gains elsewhere...

Bath; if they can't win that they ought to give up and go home.  There are a handful of other possible re-gains from the Tories, and they might have a chance of taking Cambridge back from Labour.  Then there should be a chance in some Scottish seats: East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West, North East Fife.  Beyond those it's hard to be optimistic for them on current polls.

The other trouble for them on these polls is that their 2015 seats don't all look that safe.  Southport, in particular, looks vulnerable as John Pugh is standing down.  I'm sceptical about their chances of losing my own backyard but if the tactical Tories from 2015 desert them they'll need to find some new votes from somewhere...

[YL]

I don't see how that thing can judge my closeness to the DUP since it didn't ask me what I think of the Pope or whether I believe the Earth was created 6000 years ago.

(Lab, Green, SF, LD, Plaid, SNP all scored highly, in that order but with little difference between them, then a big gap to DUP, New UKIPTories, UKIP, BNP.)

[YL]

Pretty sure something's wrong with that test, at least in respects to the Irish parties. I though the Democratic Unionists were "Irish Conservatives"? Pretty much?

They would hate to be described as "Irish Conservatives".  If they are Conservatives, then they are Ulster Conservatives.

More seriously, it doesn't really make sense to try to put the Northern Irish parties on the same political spectrum as the rest of the UK, because that isn't how Northern Irish people choose how to vote.  The average economic position of a DUP politician (to the extent which it makes sense to talk about such a thing) is probably rather to the left of your average British Tory, but that has a lot to do with the economic dependence of Northern Ireland on the state.  Where they do stand out ideologically is the strong influence of Protestant fundamentalism on the party; they don't like the Pope, gays or abortion (actually, none of the big NI parties like abortion) and quite a few of their elected representatives are actual 4004BC creationists.  Nor do they like the EU, possibly because it involves the Republic of Ireland.  (NB they have a breakaway faction, the TUV, who have one representative in the Assembly, and are even worse.)

[YL]

As I already asked before, where is Labour making these inroads? Is is in their strongholds or former strongholds or is it somewhere new? I'm not comparing a general election to a referendum, but Brexit barely passed while winning a huge majority of constituencies. If Labour is making meaningful gains in England, that's a serious shift in this election. With that said though, there's still 2.5 weeks to go. As the old axiom goes, even a week is a lifetime in politics.

We don't really have enough polling data to answer this question.  You can do subsample analysis, and some has already been posted, but it has to come with a health warning.

We do now have one possibly useful piece of data, that Welsh poll, which actually shows a tiny swing to Labour since 2015 (big enough for Gower but not Vale of Clwyd to be recaptured on UNS, which makes it pretty tiny) and so suggests a better situation in Wales than in the UK as a whole.  No doubt you could try to extrapolate from that, but I wouldn't jump to conclusions.

[YL]

Some quick points (other than the obvious "It's only one poll"...)

The 18-24 subsample in YouGov is tiny, in addition to the usual concern about subsamples.  So I'd be careful of reading too much into changes in it.

Electoral Calculus's seat prediction algorithm is doing wacky things, especially in Wales.

If the high Labour share really is coming from young people who haven't voted before, then based on past form I'll believe it when I see it.

[YL]

here in Plymouth Moor View, a seat the tories gained from labour in 2015 with a majority of 1,026 (2.4%)
both tory and labour activists predict the tories will win by 8-10% majority

this poll doesn't reflect the reality in the marginals

Moor View is "Lean Conservative" in the YouGov model.  It has Sutton & Devonport as a Labour gain, though.

(I don't know that much about how Plymouth's demographics vary across the city; how different are the two constituencies?)

[YL]

Some more of that YouGov model's output:

Potential Lab gains from Con (just a selection, I haven't found them all):
Bedford
Ipswich
Hastings & Rye
Brighton Kemptown
Croydon Central
Plymouth Sutton & Devonport
Stroud
Bristol North West
Cardiff North
Lincoln
Keighley
Battersea

Potential Con gains from Lab:
Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland
Stoke-on-Trent North

They have Independent Claire Wright ahead in East Devon.  As for the Lib Dems, it has them losing Southport to the Tories and in trouble in Carshalton & Wallington, losing Leeds North West to Labour and in trouble in Sheffield Hallam, but gaining Twickenham, Eastbourne and Kingston & Surbiton.

Pinches of salt required, I suspect.

[YL]

The more I look the more it becomes apparent that they've just 'plucked numbers out of thin air'. As an other example they have the Tories up 10% to 60% in Sittingbourne and Sheppy yet unchanged in Dartford which has similar demographics, similar Brexit vote and only a slightly smaller 2015 UKIP vote in 2015.

Even if you accept the 41-38 split (which I think is very wrong anyway) their constituency numbers would still be way off.

It's a statistical model and has a fairly large margin of error in each constituency, which it acknowledges.  Possibly that margin of error is too high for it to be useful (e.g. for my own constituency its range for the Labour vote is 27% to 45%) but it might explain many of your criticisms.  With 632 constituencies you're almost certain to get some rogue numbers somewhere anyway.

I think it has a definite Labour lean, but apart from that I'll wait until 9 June to judge it.

[YL]

I for one am fully expecting a Sinn Fein majority government.

Snp 326

Hypothetically speaking, of course, what non-Scotland seat would the SNP have a(ny) chance of winning?

Corby is the usual suggestion.