UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Hifly]

Please can the Americans leave this thread? It's becoming unbearable to read with the amount of nonsense that's been posted.

[Hifly]

I see the Conservatives winning and holding their majority. However, I don't know if they'll keep their super majority, that remains to be seen.

Ah, a new American!

Keep their what?

[Hifly]

Survation for Stop Brexit Alliance (SBA)/Kensington Constituency Poll (25-27 Apr)
Poll 1
Con - 46% (-6)
Lab - 29% (-2)
Lib - 17% (+11)
Grn - 7% (+2)
UKIP - 1% (-4)
3% swing from Con to Lab

Poll 2
Con - 32% (-20)
SBA - 28% (+28)
Lab - 23% (-8)
Lib - 9% (+3)
Grn - 5% (N/C)
UKIP - 2% (-3)
24% swing from Con to SBA

Is this a new political party?

They must be; can't find anything out about them. I would imagine that the Lib Dems would stand aside for them if they're that close to the Conservatives. They may potentially stand in other seats that voted remain overwhelmingly that the Conservatives hold as well. Could make it interesting.

Yeah, I would think that too.  If it is a new party, it would most likely reel in some disaffected Labour and Lib Dems.

No, neither of you know so. The Kensington Lib Dems chose their candidate months ago and if you measured her purely on her stubborn determination you may think she had a chance. They're standing down for nobody in Kensington (good news for the Constituency Labour Party; they steal more votes from the Tories!).

Note the stability of the Labour vote - not surprising for a constituency like Kensington which displays such profound socioeconomic (you can walk for 100 meters and enter an area where life expectancy is 10 years lower than where you started) and political division (party composition on the Borough council has remained remarkably consistent throughout it's existence).

[Hifly]

Survation for Stop Brexit Alliance (SBA)/Kensington Constituency Poll (25-27 Apr)
Poll 1
Con - 46% (-6)
Lab - 29% (-2)
Lib - 17% (+11)
Grn - 7% (+2)
UKIP - 1% (-4)
3% swing from Con to Lab

Poll 2
Con - 32% (-20)
SBA - 28% (+28)
Lab - 23% (-8)
Lib - 9% (+3)
Grn - 5% (N/C)
UKIP - 2% (-3)
24% swing from Con to SBA

Is this a new political party?

They must be; can't find anything out about them. I would imagine that the Lib Dems would stand aside for them if they're that close to the Conservatives. They may potentially stand in other seats that voted remain overwhelmingly that the Conservatives hold as well. Could make it interesting.

I think it's organised by John Stevens, a former Conservative MEP. I'll defer to Hifly who knows the area best of all, but my understanding is that the local Tory MP (Victoria Borwick) is a hard-line Brexiter, whereas in other similar constituencies the MP was either a remainer (Battersea, Chelsea/Fulham, Cities of London/Westminster, Putney, Wimbledon) or is vulnerable to the Lib Dems (Kingston/Surbiton, Richmond Park) or both (Twickenham).

Yep. Borwick has caused quite some aggrievement in the Conservative Association through her Brexit vote; she had indicated she would vote to Remain at her selection in 2015 and then practiced a full 360 with all accompanying acrobatic maneuvers. She has the additional problem of having her foot in her mouth most of the time and this is reflected in her performance.
She was not re-selected unanimously at the Association meeting which took place this week.

The fact is, if an Anti-Brexit Alliance candidate could ever win a Tory seat against multiparty opposition, it would be in Kensington. Loyalty to the Conservative Party is not through tradition and establishment but rather, taxes and markets. It was 70% remain for a reason: the majority of the population is foreign-born, it's the Centre of the French community in London, the preferred abode of international bank directors et. al.

As already observed, the neighboring seats of Chelsea and Fulham and Cities of London & Westminster have Tory MPs who represent their values accordingly. Kensington does not.

[Hifly]

Can all the Americans just leave? We've asked so many times.