Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations

[heatcharger]

Election results pages:

New York Times.

Decision Desk HQ.



Ivey calls special election.

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[Maxwell]

You know what, I'm not hating Kay Ivey so far. Already trying to reverse some of the horribly unethical things that the Bentley administration was doing. Ivey might be as good as we're going to get in Alabama.

[BuckeyeNut]

As far as Republicans go, dare I say, FF?

[Jeppe]

Gov. Kay Ivey reminds me of a sweet old grandma, I hope she runs for re-election.

[Figueira]

I don't want to cozy up to her too much since she's bound to do something really awful at some point, but this is...a good move I guess.

Strange will win easily though. There's no way a state AG loses an off-season special Senate election in one of their party's best states, especially considering the opposing party will presumably nominate a random state senator or something.

[Holmes]

Yeah Strange will win. Will be interesting to see if Democrats put up a fight here because they can run against Bentley and maybe make some progress. What's left be interesting is the margin.

[Heisenberg]

The question is, does Strange win the primary? I can see someone younger who is not connected to Bentley run on:
1. The corrupt nature of the appointment
2. Able to build far more seniority in the future to make up for lost clout (remember: Alabama loves this and they really depend on it)

[RogueBeaver]

Marsh is leaning yes.

[Maxwell]

Marsh is leaning yes.

Excellent news! Personally, I don't really care who runs, the result is probably similar no matter who wins (a very strongly conservative Republican), but I'm actively rooting against Mr. Corrupt Bargain Strange.

[MAINEiac4434]

Don't know why she's calling it for December when just a few weeks earlier other states head to the polls...

[Del Tachi]

State Representative and former Alabama campaign manager for Trump Ed Henry is "very likely" to run for the seat.

He would probably be one of the stronger contenders in the primary.

EDIT:  Ed Henry is officially in.

[Kingpoleon]

I hope Byrne or Roby runs.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Don't know why she's calling it for December when just a few weeks earlier other states head to the polls...

Probably the result of state law regarding the amount of time to exist between a primary and a primary runoff, and between a primary runoff and a general.

[JMT]

I don't want to cozy up to her too much since she's bound to do something really awful at some point, but this is...a good move I guess.

Strange will win easily though. There's no way a state AG loses an off-season special Senate election in one of their party's best states, especially considering the opposing party will presumably nominate a random state senator or something.

I see what you did there. That's pretty funny!! I enjoyed that

[Del Tachi]

For anyone paying attention, Roy Moore is announcing his plans tomorrow.

A lot seem to think that its relating to this race, but Moore staying out of this Senate special could be a strong indication that he's going all-in for AL-Gov in 2018.

Of course, Moore could be announcing a run for AL-Gov tomorrow to try to get an early start and force Ivey out.

[Maxwell]

you're from this region, but I find it really doubtful that Kay Ivey would be scared by Roy Moore, and that may even get more established GOPers to pony up for her campaign.

[Del Tachi]

you're from this region, but I find it really doubtful that Kay Ivey would be scared by Roy Moore, and that may even get more established GOPers to pony up for her campaign.

Kay Ivey was a candidate for AL-Gov in 2010 but dropped down to the LG's race when the field for governor got too big.  She's known as somebody who shies away from conflict, and that's exactly what a primary with Roy Moore would be.

The reason I think that Roy Moore could be a serious contender is because of the outside support he'd gobble up among the FRC and other so-con groups.  He's practically a martyr among the Rick and Bubba crowd.

If he signals a run for AL-Gov tomorrow, as the first entrant he gets first crack at this outside money.  Outside groups like to spend early in order to have the most impact.

In a Ivey vs. Moore primary, I rate the race as a Tossup/Tilt Ivey but it would be a tough pill for the AL-GOPe to swallow.  Despite being a LG and former state treasurer, she's not very high profile and might have a hard time on the trail against a firebrand like Moore.  AL-GOPe would be better off if Ivey stepped aside and allowed Moore to come in first in a crowded GOP primary and then face off against a fresher face in the runoff (i.e., Battle, Roby, Byrne, etc.)

[Maxwell]

Interesting - though I'm not sure I'd categorize Byrne as a new face (didn't he also run in 2010 as the sort of establishment candidate?)

[Del Tachi]

Interesting - though I'm not sure I'd categorize Byrne as a new face (didn't he also run in 2010 as the sort of establishment candidate?)

Yes, he did so you are correct that he wouldn't be exactly a "fresh face", but he has indicated interest in running for Gov again in 2018.

Interestingly enough, Byrne outdid Bentley in the GOP primary in 2010 then faltered when Bentley (in)famously ran ads against him in the runoff saying that "[Byrne] didn't believe in all parts of the Bible".  That type of attack just shows how powerful social conservatives (and thus Moore) would be in a GOP primary. 

[Duke of York]

What is the point of this? It seems like a waste of money. Why not just hold the special election in November 2018?

[RogueBeaver]

Moore is running. For Senate.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What is the point of this? It seems like a waste of money. Why not just hold the special election in November 2018?

Allowing an unelected individual to be in the Senate without having to win an election for more than 18 months lacks proper respect for the will of the voters.

[Gass3268]

Moore is running. For Senate.

Ew

[Kamala]

Moore is running. For Senate.

Ew

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Moore is running. For Senate.

As much as I would love to see Roy Moore in the Senate, I don't want to wind up with a competitive race in Alabama of all places