Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations

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I like that the NY Times page has no mention of Kennedy on it at all, once the results start coming in I'll be laughing at that.

Also Roy Moore will sadly become a Senator, sullying the GOP Brand even further.

[TheSaint250]

I like that the NY Times page has no mention of Kennedy on it at all, once the results start coming in I'll be laughing at that.

Also Roy Moore will sadly become a Senator, sullying the GOP Brand even further.

Kennedy is there on mine. You just have to click the arrow that says "Other." It's in alphabetical order.

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I like that the NY Times page has no mention of Kennedy on it at all, once the results start coming in I'll be laughing at that.

Also Roy Moore will sadly become a Senator, sullying the GOP Brand even further.

Kennedy is there on mine. You just have to click the arrow that says "Other." It's in alphabetical order.

I meant as in the description of the D Primary.  No mention of him at all despite his leading in the polls.

[TheSaint250]

I like that the NY Times page has no mention of Kennedy on it at all, once the results start coming in I'll be laughing at that.

Also Roy Moore will sadly become a Senator, sullying the GOP Brand even further.

Kennedy is there on mine. You just have to click the arrow that says "Other." It's in alphabetical order.

I meant as in the description of the D Primary.  No mention of him at all despite his leading in the polls.

Oop sorry.

Really? That's kinda surprising.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results coverage: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=post;topic=261809.1025;num_replies=1035

First results coming in shortly.

[Keep cool-idge]

so brooks is out I think it will be moore 52.5-47.5 in the runoff

[Devout Centrist]

Lmao at Kennedy getting destroyed

[mcmikk]

Lmao at Kennedy getting destroyed

[Kamala]

If I were the Jones campaign, I'd try to quietly contact as many Hillary voters as I can, and try to increase black turnout as much as possible, perhaps through church networks. Winning over Republicans is a fool's errand.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If I were the Jones campaign, I'd try to quietly contact as many Hillary voters as I can, and try to increase black turnout as much as possible, perhaps through church networks. Winning over Republicans is a fool's errand.

Not enough democrats in the state to win based on that alone.

[Kamala]

If I were the Jones campaign, I'd try to quietly contact as many Hillary voters as I can, and try to increase black turnout as much as possible, perhaps through church networks. Winning over Republicans is a fool's errand.

Not enough democrats in the state to win based on that alone.

I think turnout will be depressed among all groups, just because it's a special election in an off year and an off month. Also, if Strange is the nominee, Republicans will also not be really inspired to turn out to vote.

There were 795,696 Obama 2012 voters in Alabama.

In 2014, Sessions received 795,606 votes, uncontested.
2014 House elections:
Republicans - 704,000 votes
Democrats - 331,000 votes, which means nearly 100,000 Democratic voters voted for Sessions.

This leaves us with about 700,000 Republican midterm votes, approximately 41% turnout . If turnout is higher than SC-05 (18%), lets say 25% (with Republicans) , that means about 430,000 votes for the Republican. This means that Jones needs to have turnout of 54% of Obama 2012 voters. A difficult task, nigh-impossible, but just nigh.

[The Other Castro]

Inside Elections changes rating from Solid R to Likely R since Moore has an increased possibility at the nomination now.

https://twitter.com/nathanlgonzales/status/897674402636197890

[Chief Justice Keef]

If I were the Jones campaign, I'd try to quietly contact as many Hillary voters as I can, and try to increase black turnout as much as possible, perhaps through church networks. Winning over Republicans is a fool's errand.

Not enough democrats in the state to win based on that alone.

It's the only chance he has, though. Those Republicans voted for Bentley twice and are gonna do the same with Moore. Trying his best to maximize black turnout is how he wins.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

If I were the Jones campaign, I'd try to quietly contact as many Hillary voters as I can, and try to increase black turnout as much as possible, perhaps through church networks. Winning over Republicans is a fool's errand.

Not enough democrats in the state to win based on that alone.

I think turnout will be depressed among all groups, just because it's a special election in an off year and an off month. Also, if Strange is the nominee, Republicans will also not be really inspired to turn out to vote.

There were 795,696 Obama 2012 voters in Alabama.

In 2014, Sessions received 795,606 votes, uncontested.
2014 House elections:
Republicans - 704,000 votes
Democrats - 331,000 votes, which means nearly 100,000 Democratic voters voted for Sessions.

This leaves us with about 700,000 Republican midterm votes, approximately 41% turnout . If turnout is higher than SC-05 (18%), lets say 25% (with Republicans) , that means about 430,000 votes for the Republican. This means that Jones needs to have turnout of 54% of Obama 2012 voters. A difficult task, nigh-impossible, but just nigh.

It makes sense, but unfortunately there just isn't the sort of infrastructure in Alabama to do that *right now*. If someone invested money and time in building up party infrastructure in red states for a few years, we'd be able to take advantage of opportunities like this.

[DrScholl]

Jones should do ground work, but stay under the radar enough where Republicans believe that they are totally safe. He has a head start of an entire month, so he can do lots of ground work while Republicans are still fighting.

[Tender Branson]

Don't fool yourselves: both the AL and the UT races are unwinnable for the Democrats.

[DrScholl]

Don't fool yourselves: both the AL and the UT races are unwinnable for the Democrats.

Everyone stop posting, King Tender Branson has spoken. smh.

[DrScholl]

Don't fool yourselves: both the AL and the UT races are unwinnable for the Democrats.

Of course not, there aren't enough Blaxicans to boost turnout...

[Tender Branson]

Don't fool yourselves: both the AL and the UT races are unwinnable for the Democrats.

Everyone stop posting, King Tender Branson has spoken. smh.

Don't fool yourselves: both the AL and the UT races are unwinnable for the Democrats.

Of course not, there aren't enough Blaxicans to boost turnout...

Please do a favour and stop acting like a 5-year old child by ridiculing me.

You are a fool if you believe Democrats have any chance in AL and UT ...

[Free Bird]

I like that the NY Times page has no mention of Kennedy on it at all, once the results start coming in I'll be laughing at that.

Also Roy Moore will sadly become a Senator, sullying the GOP Brand even further.

Nobody but political junkies outside of Alabama does know or is going to know who Roy Moore is.

[smoltchanov]

If I were the Jones campaign, I'd try to quietly contact as many Hillary voters as I can, and try to increase black turnout as much as possible, perhaps through church networks. Winning over Republicans is a fool's errand.

Not enough democrats in the state to win based on that alone.

+100. Slightly less then 160.000 people voted in Democratic primary, about 410.000 - in Republican. Times when Democrats could win on their own, and primaries (if any) were more then 10:1 Democratic, are long gone...

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Unionists, unions and Underwood.

[Brittain33]

If I were the Jones campaign, I'd try to quietly contact as many Hillary voters as I can, and try to increase black turnout as much as possible, perhaps through church networks. Winning over Republicans is a fool's errand.

Not enough democrats in the state to win based on that alone.

This logic would have doomed Scott Brown in 2010. He won because a ridiculous number of Dems stayed home while he romped among Indies.

Not saying I'd bet against Moore, but that route exists. Recall that Dems won MS-1, AL-2, and AL-5 in living memory amid terrible conditions for Republicans.

[smoltchanov]

If I were the Jones campaign, I'd try to quietly contact as many Hillary voters as I can, and try to increase black turnout as much as possible, perhaps through church networks. Winning over Republicans is a fool's errand.

Not enough democrats in the state to win based on that alone.

This logic would have doomed Scott Brown in 2010. He won because a ridiculous number of Dems stayed home while he romped among Indies.

Not saying I'd bet against Moore, but that route exists. Recall that Dems won MS-1, AL-2, and AL-5 in living memory amid terrible conditions for Republicans.

With about 160.000 people taking part in Democratic primary, and about 410.000 - in Republican Democrats need either to romp among Indies, which are (mostly) not especially liberal in Alabama AFAIK, or to get more then 30% of Republican primary electorate, which is very conservative (and Jones is NOT a conservative). Both seem to be unlikely... Childers, Bright and Griffith were conservatives (at least - of moderate variety) and could get much more of conservative vote.

[Chief Justice Keef]

It's a bad sign for Jones already that Moore got more votes than everybody in the Democratic primary combined.