MM876
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Posts: 198
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« on: April 20, 2017, 06:51:31 AM » |
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« edited: April 20, 2017, 08:54:20 AM by MM876 »
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If you had to rank each of the 2020 candidates by their tier in terms of their ability to win the 2020 Democratic primary, where would you put them?
Here's mine:
A Tier:
Bernie Sanders--I have no doubt that if Bernie entered the primary and didn't die during it, he would win. His health is the biggest issue by far though, and it's entirely possible that he won't be fit enough to campaign in 2020
Elizabeth Warren--I'm concerned if Warren could win the general, but I've never doubted her strength in the primary. She has much of the same benefits as Sanders and might be able to improve his figures on the woman vote without Hillary in the picture
Sherrod Brown--He's midwestern, progressive but protectionist on trade and an experienced union Democrat. For appeal in a generic election year he might not be great, but he's the perfect solution to Trump. I think Brown would be like Harding or Reagan in that he would be successful at reading the electorate and appealing to them through what may be a realignment. However, I've heard that charisma and magnetism are not his strong suits. Still, full disclosure: Brown is one of my favorite politicians and my personal favorite to win
Al Franken--He's raised his national profile a lot, he is technically midwestern, and he's managed to strike a tone that's critical of Trump, but not without hope or levity.
B Tier:
Joe Biden--Biden is a solid candidate, I can't imagine a scenario where he runs, but if he does I think he has a decent shot of winning, but not a type of profile that will clear the field for him; if Joe runs he'll actually have to fight for the nomination
Andrew Cuomo--not progressive when that'll probably be important in the 2020 primary, but with free NY tuition he knows it and is working on it, if he keeps it up without coming off as a coastal elitist (which is kind of his biggest problem), he could nab it.
Cory Booker--by virtue of fundraising alone, if Cory Booker wants to run he'll wedge himself in; as one of the only black candidates he might have an edge in the Southern states, but Wall Street connections will hurt with the voters as they help with the checkbook. Still, Booker is charismatic and has cultivated an 'everyman hero' persona by being media-savvy
Tulsi Gabbard--I know some people think she's a horrible choice (although I don't really understand why), but whether or not she's a HP, she could credibly make her deference to Assad and association with Hindu Nationalists a non-issue, if it even gets brought up in the first place. Plus she's associated with Bernie in a not-insignificant way, and is a young minority woman, which wouldn't hurt
Kamala Harris--I don't think Harris is anything exceptional, but credit where credit is due, her policies are mostly inoffensive and I doubt it would hurt to be the first minority woman candidate since 2004. If she's a great speaker/debater, she absolutely has a shot.
Amy Klobuchar--she's a good Senator and would probably be anywhere from decent to pretty good as a president, but she somewhat lacks a political identity and might get overshadowed
C Tier
John Hickenlooper--While Hickenlooper has been a tad too moderate for some, like environmentalists, he could strike a solid balance of liberal policy without being (or being seen as) a hardcore liberal, and if he doesn't have too much competition he could score in some of the Western states
Steve Bullock--he'll be finishing up his second term as governor during the 2020 campaign, so he doesn't have much to lose, being a liberal governor of a state Trump won could be good for 2020
Julian Castro--he was on a good trajectory but Clinton's loss really stifled any opportunity for advancement except in another president's cabinet. Still, it's only two years until candidates start announcing, and that's not too long to be unemployed, especially given that just ten months ago he was being touted as a likely VP pick
Kirsten Gillibrand--even in the Democratic party I'm suspicious that nominating a blonde woman Senator from New York again will be a bitter pill to swallow this early, but Gillibrand has pulled off being both Blue Dog and progressive enough to get elected and it's worked, plus she's strong on women's issues
Chris Murphy--average choice, inoffensive and with low name recognition; he would have to come up with something impressive to stay relevant in what would probably be a very crowded dem field
D Tier
John Bel Edwards--JBE could run in the future and lock up a lot of the moderate/southern votes, but for him to run in 2020 he'd have to either give up a rare dem governorship in the South or announce his candidacy while still running for reelection and immediately turn around from 2019 to the Iowa caucuses, which would probably make him look politically expedient or amateurish
Gavin Newsom--Newsom can win someday if he can avoid looking sleazy or elitist, and if CA moves their primary to 3rd he could feasibly win in 2020, but in any other situation he would face the same issue as JBE: he would be inaugerated as governor in January 2019 and then have to announce his presidential run within the next ~6-7 months, which would leave him with a dirth of experience and it would look bad to win the election and immediately start running for office again
Martin O'Malley--I actually liked O'Malley in 2016, but he hasn't showing any signs of running a different type of campaign and what he did in 2016 is not going to be significantly improved by a crowded field and two more years out of office
Tim Kaine--Kaine is a good democrat, but he's not exciting in the least bit, there was little enthusiasm for him in 2016 and I doubt he could do anything in the next two years to change that
Hillary Clinton--I'm not being spiteful; she came from ahead to lose the 2016 election to the worst candidate in American history. I empathize with Hillary, but running again is a horrible idea and I think she's smart enough to know that.
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