Republicans Only: Will Shifting Demographics ACTUALLY Make One Party Dem Rule?
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  Republicans Only: Will Shifting Demographics ACTUALLY Make One Party Dem Rule?
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Poll
Question: Will Demographics Grant the Democrats an Invincible One Party Rule?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No, The GOP Adapts
 
#3
No, But the Map Will Look Very Different
 
#4
No, A New Party Rises Up
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 55

Author Topic: Republicans Only: Will Shifting Demographics ACTUALLY Make One Party Dem Rule?  (Read 2023 times)
Free Bird
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« on: April 18, 2017, 09:07:06 PM »
« edited: April 18, 2017, 09:17:15 PM by Free Bird »

It's one of the favorite lines from Democrats. Shifting demographics will grant the Democrats one party rule. Is this true? In 50 years, will there be huge Democratic control of government? If not, what will the landscape ACTUALLY look like?

I think it's the second option. After all, platforms change, and so do voting patterns, and if you said this 60 years ago, it would be implying permanent REPUBLICAN rule.
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Alex
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« Reply #1 on: April 18, 2017, 09:14:04 PM »

Not if Republicans aren't total idiots and can adapt their strategy
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Virginiá
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« Reply #2 on: April 18, 2017, 09:16:04 PM »

Who exactly is saying permanent? No one should be listening to those who say permanent. The current demographic trajectory and the way things are still currently going suggests a period of Democratic advantage.

And if Republicans have to switch up, move back to the center and cater to minorities, well, that's kind of still a loss for them, no? Further, while I think Republicans can make inroads among minorities eventually, when that happens is the question. It won't happen overnight, and in the meantime you'll have leagues of white Millennials pushing the white vote a bit back towards Democrats.

When you look at long-term trends, you'd have to be making up your own numbers to realistically think the future will continue to belong to Republicans. Once they finally fall, they will rebound after a spell, but you guys will live under a world Democrats built for probably about as long as we have had to endure Reagan's nightmare.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #3 on: April 18, 2017, 09:22:05 PM »

Who exactly is saying permanent? No one should be listening to those who say permanent. The current demographic trajectory and the way things are still currently going suggests a period of Democratic advantage.

And if Republicans have to switch up, move back to the center and cater to minorities, well, that's kind of still a loss for them, no? Further, while I think Republicans can make inroads among minorities eventually, when that happens is the question. It won't happen overnight, and in the meantime you'll have leagues of white Millennials pushing the white vote a bit back towards Democrats.

When you look at long-term trends, you'd have to be making up your own numbers to realistically think the future will continue to belong to Republicans. Once they finally fall, they will rebound after a spell, but you guys will live under a world Democrats built for probably about as long as we have had to endure Reagan's nightmare.

On that merit, though, I feel the Millenial vote will be cancelled out by Generation Z.

In that case, the big question lies in how the GOP brings in minorities. I think, actually, that as the Democrats are forced to abandon identity politics in a bid to win back WWCs, that their ironclad grip on minorities will loosen ever so slightly. It will be in the GOP's court as to what to do, in that case.
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #4 on: April 18, 2017, 09:28:12 PM »

Who exactly is saying permanent? No one should be listening to those who say permanent. The current demographic trajectory and the way things are still currently going suggests a period of Democratic advantage.

And if Republicans have to switch up, move back to the center and cater to minorities, well, that's kind of still a loss for them, no? Further, while I think Republicans can make inroads among minorities eventually, when that happens is the question. It won't happen overnight, and in the meantime you'll have leagues of white Millennials pushing the white vote a bit back towards Democrats.

When you look at long-term trends, you'd have to be making up your own numbers to realistically think the future will continue to belong to Republicans. Once they finally fall, they will rebound after a spell, but you guys will live under a world Democrats built for probably about as long as we have had to endure Reagan's nightmare.

On that merit, though, I feel the Millenial vote will be cancelled out by Generation Z.

In that case, the big question lies in how the GOP brings in minorities. I think, actually, that as the Democrats are forced to abandon identity politics in a bid to win back WWCs, that their ironclad grip on minorities will loosen ever so slightly. It will be in the GOP's court as to what to do, in that case.

This post is a hodgepodge of #AtlasWisdom.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #5 on: April 18, 2017, 09:31:31 PM »

Who exactly is saying permanent? No one should be listening to those who say permanent. The current demographic trajectory and the way things are still currently going suggests a period of Democratic advantage.

And if Republicans have to switch up, move back to the center and cater to minorities, well, that's kind of still a loss for them, no? Further, while I think Republicans can make inroads among minorities eventually, when that happens is the question. It won't happen overnight, and in the meantime you'll have leagues of white Millennials pushing the white vote a bit back towards Democrats.

When you look at long-term trends, you'd have to be making up your own numbers to realistically think the future will continue to belong to Republicans. Once they finally fall, they will rebound after a spell, but you guys will live under a world Democrats built for probably about as long as we have had to endure Reagan's nightmare.

On that merit, though, I feel the Millenial vote will be cancelled out by Generation Z.

In that case, the big question lies in how the GOP brings in minorities. I think, actually, that as the Democrats are forced to abandon identity politics in a bid to win back WWCs, that their ironclad grip on minorities will loosen ever so slightly. It will be in the GOP's court as to what to do, in that case.

This post is a hodgepodge of #AtlasWisdom.

I do try lol
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longtimelurker
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« Reply #6 on: April 18, 2017, 11:11:59 PM »

The demographic death of the Republican Party has been predicted since the 1932 election.
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The_Doctor
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« Reply #7 on: April 18, 2017, 11:19:42 PM »

Republicans will not be killed by demographic trends. It will be the economic ones that murder it first. The neoliberal heart of the Republican Party cannot survive past 2024 as long as the working class continues to stagnate economically.  At that point demographic trends will just keep the body down for a while.

(Don't give me that crap about Trump and Pence helping them by the way. They're been suffering since 2000 and you know as well as I do nothing will change under Trump or Pence).
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #8 on: April 18, 2017, 11:34:39 PM »

Who exactly is saying permanent? No one should be listening to those who say permanent. The current demographic trajectory and the way things are still currently going suggests a period of Democratic advantage.

And if Republicans have to switch up, move back to the center and cater to minorities, well, that's kind of still a loss for them, no? Further, while I think Republicans can make inroads among minorities eventually, when that happens is the question. It won't happen overnight, and in the meantime you'll have leagues of white Millennials pushing the white vote a bit back towards Democrats.

When you look at long-term trends, you'd have to be making up your own numbers to realistically think the future will continue to belong to Republicans. Once they finally fall, they will rebound after a spell, but you guys will live under a world Democrats built for probably about as long as we have had to endure Reagan's nightmare.

On that merit, though, I feel the Millenial vote will be cancelled out by Generation Z.

In that case, the big question lies in how the GOP brings in minorities. I think, actually, that as the Democrats are forced to abandon identity politics in a bid to win back WWCs, that their ironclad grip on minorities will loosen ever so slightly. It will be in the GOP's court as to what to do, in that case.

I tried digging up everything I could find on Generation Z and while I suspect them to not be quite as liberal as millennials (in the long run), I don't think they'll be a conservative generation at all.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #9 on: April 18, 2017, 11:54:33 PM »

The reason the two parties have been around for so long is their ability to morph themselves into whatever they need to be in order to win. Sooner or later I think we'll see a more minority friendly GOP, as unlikely as that seems now.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #10 on: April 19, 2017, 01:05:41 AM »

Eight years ago many were talking about the demise of the Republican party as a viable institution. Today the Republican Party has crushing power. At the start of the Trump Administration I expected the GOP to use its power to dismantle any public institutions contrary to its interests, especially with the most reactionary President in American history -- who governs much like a dictator.   

Ask how things are in January 2019.

Demographics are a trend, and not destiny. it is clear that under-educated whites do not share a culture with under-educated people of any other ethnic group.  Republicans have been making appeals to anti-intellectualism that excite poor white people but offend middle-class minorities who are well educated as a rule. 
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #11 on: April 19, 2017, 01:53:37 AM »

The Democrats will be totally dominant and the Republican Party will survive only as a catch all big tent of people opposed to the Democrats. It will not have a consistent ideology but it will occasionally win elections when the Democrats mess up.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #12 on: April 19, 2017, 02:01:49 AM »

The Democrats will be totally dominant and the Republican Party will survive only as a catch all big tent of people opposed to the Democrats. It will not have a consistent ideology but it will occasionally win elections when the Democrats mess up.

Can't tell if you're being sarcastic.
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
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« Reply #13 on: April 19, 2017, 02:30:15 AM »
« Edited: April 19, 2017, 02:40:42 AM by Senator Scott »

In this poll, I would like it to be the fourth scenario.  What do I think will really happen?  Option 2, so long as gerrymandering continues to be on the rage and states like North Carolina turn to near-mirror images of North Korea.  I exaggerate but slightly.

EDIT: Sorry, didn't see the "Republicans Only."  I clearly need some rest.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #14 on: April 19, 2017, 07:59:32 AM »

any demographic trends favouring the left can easily be balanced out by voter suppression etc, as has been demonstrated pretty conclusively in the past.
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #15 on: April 19, 2017, 09:36:17 AM »

The reason the two parties have been around for so long is their ability to morph themselves into whatever they need to be in order to win. Sooner or later I think we'll see a more minority friendly GOP, as unlikely as that seems now.

I can see this happening only under two conditions. First, the GOP must lose at least three straight presidential elections in a row along with multiple midterms. Second, a significant number of working class whites must ditch the GOP over the course of those three electoral cycles in such a consistent fashion that the GOP realizes that expanding their share of the minority vote will be the only way they win going forward.
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Chunk Yogurt for President!
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« Reply #16 on: April 19, 2017, 11:46:37 AM »

The GOP will do slightly better with minorities but will start to do significantly better with Northern whites with the Northern Strategy.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #17 on: April 19, 2017, 01:18:05 PM »

In the short term as the party doesn't want to adapt and public perception stays the same, then yes. In the long run once the party can adapt and shed the stigma of what it is now, no.
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Technocracy Timmy
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« Reply #18 on: April 19, 2017, 03:41:51 PM »

The Democrats will be totally dominant and the Republican Party will survive only as a catch all big tent of people opposed to the Democrats. It will not have a consistent ideology but it will occasionally win elections when the Democrats mess up.

Can't tell if you're being sarcastic.

Same. I agree that the GOP is in trouble in the House and at the presidential level (let's get real here: Had it not been for Clinton, Trump would have lost the election), but they'll still be a strong force in the Senate (and of course the House as well). A complete and total one-party rule isn't going to happen, no matter how much people like TD want that to be the case.

I mean I would agree if Trump governed in a more economically populist way but seeing as though he's gonna continue the same 36 year old economic mantra it doesn't seem like the GOP will adapt on the economic front.

The New Deal macroeconomic regime from 1932-1970's needed restructing and it looks like the monetarist and supply side macroeconomic regime is gonna need another restructuring soon. Trump and a lot of his supporters seem to sort of "get" that the current economic paradigm isn't working well right now. The problem is that Trump is either helpless to do anything or doesn't care.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #19 on: April 19, 2017, 03:46:18 PM »
« Edited: April 19, 2017, 04:10:22 PM by RINO Tom »

There will never be one party rule, that is obvious.  Eventually, even if the GOP dies off (LOL, we made it through being blamed for the Great Depression at a time when we couldn't get a single Senator out of an entire region of the country due to historical allegiance ... we're here to stay!), another party would emerge to absorb anyone and everyone uncomfortable with Democratic rule.  Now, the GOP would certainly lose its current advantage eventually if it can't 1) appeal to more minority voters or 2) get Romney levels of support among White college grads (in combination with current turnout and margins with non-college grads).  In the longer term, with millenials being more diverse and more educated, they will eventually have to do both.  However, if they don't, it won't be the blood bath that Dems predict, and even a slow adaptation to changing demographics will keep the GOP from truly dying.
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Santander
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« Reply #20 on: April 19, 2017, 03:48:24 PM »

The only guarantee in politics is that nothing is permanent.
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Torie
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« Reply #21 on: April 19, 2017, 04:25:50 PM »

The Dem party has its own fissures, and stresses and strains, with its own populist versus establishment corporatist/establishment divide (e.g. Hillary bemoaning in private to investment bankers about the ignorants in her own party not understanding high finance). So much is up in the air as to how the parties evolve. As others have noted, predicting the future very far out is a fool's errand, and so much is driven by events. Even short term predictions are problematical. I mean, the US elected Trump president, at variance with most of the predictions out there.
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« Reply #22 on: April 19, 2017, 04:35:19 PM »

Not necessarily. Demographic shift is not a one-way street; present trends are the result of government policy and can be halted or even reversed.

With Trumpism, the GOP has an opportunity to build a new and unbeatable electoral coalition. If the GOP regresses to the tired and stale movement conservatism that defined the party for decades, then yes, I would agree that their fate is sealed.
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #23 on: April 19, 2017, 04:35:22 PM »

Between two and three.
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Steam Boat Willie
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« Reply #24 on: April 19, 2017, 04:52:39 PM »

The answer is simply no.  What Republicans did in 2016 apparently works.  I know that in liberal fantasy land we're heading for this era where Republicans can't win because of youth and minorities but in reality this mindset is only partisan thinking by people who vote Democrat.  Talking about things like this takes away from talking about how to put food on the table or provide for our troops which is what real Americans actually care about.  Take your numbers and put them where no one will see them.
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