Republicans Only: Will Shifting Demographics ACTUALLY Make One Party Dem Rule?

[RINO Tom]

The less power the GOP has as demographics push them out...the more extremist they'll get IMO

US could end up with GOP states routinely threatening succession or refusing to send federal funds...just plain being antagonistic due to natural tendency in powerless groups to become extremely reactionary when the are no longer dominant in society

Conservatives have always preferred order, I guess.

[Person Man]

Not necessarily. Demographic shift is not a one-way street; present trends are the result of government policy and can be halted or even reversed.

With Trumpism, the GOP has an opportunity to build a new and unbeatable electoral coalition. If the GOP regresses to the tired and stale movement conservatism that defined the party for decades, then yes, I would agree that their fate is sealed.

That's coming along nicely.

[ProudModerate2]

The way things are looking, the Republican party is in trouble, unless they change.

[Steam Boat Willie]

The way things are looking, the Republican party is in trouble, unless they change.

What's really funny is we heard that throughout all of 2008, 2012, and 2016. Yet here they are with all 3 houses and mega-monopolies at the state level.

[ProudModerate2]

The way things are looking, the Republican party is in trouble, unless they change.

What's really funny is we heard that throughout all of 2008, 2012, and 2016. Yet here they are with all 3 houses and mega-monopolies at the state level.

It's happening slowly. It may take another 20 or 30 years.
The world and our nation, is more "liberal" in all things ..... Period !
They barely have the Senate.
The House is due to gerrymandering .... anyone with half a brain will tell you that (and the majority here is not anything huge, anyway).
The orange-haired clown is not a Republican (he won on theatrics, not on anything "Pub").
Don't fool yourself.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Who exactly is saying permanent? No one should be listening to those who say permanent. The current demographic trajectory and the way things are still currently going suggests a period of Democratic advantage.

And if Republicans have to switch up, move back to the center and cater to minorities, well, that's kind of still a loss for them, no? Further, while I think Republicans can make inroads among minorities eventually, when that happens is the question. It won't happen overnight, and in the meantime you'll have leagues of white Millennials pushing the white vote a bit back towards Democrats.

When you look at long-term trends, you'd have to be making up your own numbers to realistically think the future will continue to belong to Republicans. Once they finally fall, they will rebound after a spell, but you guys will live under a world Democrats built for probably about as long as we have had to endure Reagan's nightmare.

On that merit, though, I feel the Millenial vote will be cancelled out by Generation Z.

In that case, the big question lies in how the GOP brings in minorities. I think, actually, that as the Democrats are forced to abandon identity politics in a bid to win back WWCs, that their ironclad grip on minorities will loosen ever so slightly. It will be in the GOP's court as to what to do, in that case.

I tried digging up everything I could find on Generation Z and while I suspect them to not be quite as liberal as millennials (in the long run), I don't think they'll be a conservative generation at all.

Uh, not too long ago you were claiming they were basically all Nazis.

[RINO Tom]

Not necessarily. Demographic shift is not a one-way street; present trends are the result of government policy and can be halted or even reversed.

With Trumpism, the GOP has an opportunity to build a new and unbeatable electoral coalition. If the GOP regresses to the tired and stale movement conservatism that defined the party for decades, then yes, I would agree that their fate is sealed.

This is just flat out ignorance of wishful thinking.  Just as movement conservatism was failing because it didn't have a large enough group, the GOP can't fully embrace Trumpism, or it will use very large factions of the GOP that did, in fact, stay loyal to Trump in the GE.  Sorry, but you can't win without Country Club Republicans and the movement types.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yes, but "immigration reform" isn't how the GOP broadens its coalition. That was the big failing of the GOP 2012: deciding the big mistake was the policy none of the bigwigs liked in the first place but Romney included anyway (muh self-deportation) and not the policies that everybody hates aside from conservative ideologues and literal oligarchs. yes, Romney was the original Trump.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Yes, but "immigration reform" isn't how the GOP broadens its coalition. That was the big failing of the GOP 2012: deciding the big mistake was the policy none of the bigwigs liked in the first place but Romney included anyway (muh self-deportation) and not the policies that everybody hates aside from conservative ideologues and literal oligarchs. yes, Romney was the original Trump.

come again?

[The_Doctor]

Not necessarily. Demographic shift is not a one-way street; present trends are the result of government policy and can be halted or even reversed.

With Trumpism, the GOP has an opportunity to build a new and unbeatable electoral coalition. If the GOP regresses to the tired and stale movement conservatism that defined the party for decades, then yes, I would agree that their fate is sealed.

This is just flat out ignorance of wishful thinking.  Just as movement conservatism was failing because it didn't have a large enough group, the GOP can't fully embrace Trumpism, or it will use very large factions of the GOP that did, in fact, stay loyal to Trump in the GE.  Sorry, but you can't win without Country Club Republicans and the movement types.

If this coalition was unbeatable Trump wouldn't have lost the popular vote or lost the major blue states of California, Illinois, New York and so on by the margins he did. This is not a “unbeatable” coalition, it's a coalition that will ultimately kill the Republican Party if allowed to persist without a solid intellectual and philosophic foundation outside racial issues.

[RINO Tom]

Not necessarily. Demographic shift is not a one-way street; present trends are the result of government policy and can be halted or even reversed.

With Trumpism, the GOP has an opportunity to build a new and unbeatable electoral coalition. If the GOP regresses to the tired and stale movement conservatism that defined the party for decades, then yes, I would agree that their fate is sealed.

This is just flat out ignorance of wishful thinking.  Just as movement conservatism was failing because it didn't have a large enough group, the GOP can't fully embrace Trumpism, or it will use very large factions of the GOP that did, in fact, stay loyal to Trump in the GE.  Sorry, but you can't win without Country Club Republicans and the movement types.

You and I largely share the same neoliberal viewpoints, but idk how you don't see that the GOP will not revert back to neoliberalism (in terms of rhetoric, at least) post-Trump. Trumpism was what finally gave them the wins that they desperately needed in states they hadn't won since Reagan '84 or HW '88.  The neoliberalism of Romney, Bush, and McCain didn't do them any favors in any of those areas. Sure, it might've won them places like Orange County, CA; Cobb and Gwinnett in Georgia; and higher numbers in other inner-ring suburbs, but what good is that for outside of a handful of House seats (setting aside it obviously portending long-term trouble if the GOP can't keep the  Atlanta suburbs)? The success of Trump's WWC coalition is not lost on the RNC and party strategists. Republicans still have a lot of ground to gain in places like eastern Iowa, western Wisconsin, outstate Minnesota, and outstate Michigan, even off of Trump's already great numbers in all of those regions. They just need a less flawed version of Trumpism to do it. But country club Republicanism sure as hell isn't going to do it.

This election made it perfectly obvious that neither of those approaches, by themselves, is going to yield longterm success for the GOP.  That should be perfectly obvious to anyone with a brain now.  The GOP needed to moderate and have a more populist bent (let's just throw the blatant fact out there that Trump's economic views were still less populist than Hillary's, and all the GOP was doing was moving toward the center on economic issues so as to draw a less extreme comparison with an already economically "liberal" Democratic Party ... Hillary ran closer to Sanders than she'd EVER be to a Romney), but they were still running on lowering taxes, slashing regulation and helping out American business.  They maintained KEY components of Reaganism, and the combination clearly worked (well enough) for them.  I made a map at work the other day of the county results for the 2016 election in only counties that were part of a metropolitan area of 150,000 or bigger (I think, an appropriate cutoff for "living somewhere relevant," to the geographically elitist), and Trump was hardly relying on these rural areas to override affluent suburbs; he won a lot of suburban areas.  If I were smart enough to post it, I would.

The GOP has a "WCW" segment.  They also have an affluent/business-minded segment.  If they're going to win, they'll appease both, as - despite Atlas' narrative - they largely did in 2016.  Any more Trumpist, and they'll bleed VERY important suburban voters, who are just as vidal to their victories in those states as rural ones.  They won't allow that to happen.