Could Clinton had won Texas with Castro as her running mate?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 10, 2024, 07:16:39 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  Could Clinton had won Texas with Castro as her running mate?		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Could Clinton had won Texas with Castro as her running mate?  (Read 1189 times)
UWS
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,253


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: April 18, 2017, 09:56:36 PM »
On Election Day 2016, Donald Trump won Texas by less than 10 percentage points (52.2 % for Trump and 43.2 % for Clinton), which is one of the weakest Republican performances in Texas in the last 3 decades.

According to exit polls released during the Texas Republican primary, less than 45 % of the local Republican primary voters would be satisfied if Trump becomes the Republican nominee. Statewide polls released in Texas on mid-October showed that Trump was leading Hillary Clinton in Texas by only 3 or 4 percentage points.

So the following question is could Hillary Clinton have won Texas or at least made it competitive if she selected Julian Castro as her running mate?
Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,889
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: April 18, 2017, 10:28:45 PM »
Home state effects at their finest aren't even close to what she needed, and the maximum small bump it usually gives is generally limited to politicians who are well-known and well-liked throughout the state, and he doesn't have that kind of appeal. Castro would have essentially been just another politician to them. I don't think he'd have helped her much at all.
Logged
Lincoln Republican
Winfield
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,348


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: April 18, 2017, 11:31:14 PM »
No
Logged
Mr. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,279
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: April 19, 2017, 12:18:32 AM »
No.

But she just might have flipped Arizona and Florida and won the election.
Logged
Pericles
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,127


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: April 19, 2017, 01:18:05 AM »
No, she would still have lost. If Clinton had kept up and extended the landslide lead she had after the third debate, when some polls showed Trump's lead in Texas in the low single digits, she may have had a shot.
Logged
BaldEagle1991
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,659
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: April 19, 2017, 07:34:10 AM »
No, but it would be much closer than it was. Probably a 6 point loss?
Logged
peterthlee
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 568
China


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: April 19, 2017, 09:18:44 AM »
Quote from: BaldEagle1991 on April 19, 2017, 07:34:10 AM
No, but it would be much closer than it was. Probably a 6 point loss?
Yeah, this.
Logged
Steam Boat Willie
Rookie
**
Posts: 42


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: April 19, 2017, 04:38:59 PM »
No not a chance.
Logged
○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,791


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: April 19, 2017, 10:13:43 PM »
LOL, no.

I think this flips NH, though.
Logged
The Mikado
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,816


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: April 23, 2017, 05:27:00 PM »
Absolutely not. She might have lost Texas by 7 rather than 9.
Logged
TDAS04
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,541
Bhutan


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: April 23, 2017, 05:32:43 PM »
Quote from: The Mikado on April 23, 2017, 05:27:00 PM
Absolutely not. She might have lost Texas by 7 rather than 9.

This.

Castro was never elected statewide and big states are hardly swung by a VP candidate's native status.
(Before anyone brings up LBJ in 1960, the Democratic ticket only narrowly carried Texas after the state had trended Republican from 1956.  In any case, Castro isn't even LBJ).
Logged
Lord Admirale
Admiral President
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,879
United States Minor Outlying Islands


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -0.70

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: April 24, 2017, 06:19:51 PM »
Nope. If he was a (popular) Governor/Senator, then sure. But he's a cabinet member and a nobody to that state.

I could see Arizona go Democrat while Virginia goes Republican. That's the biggest change I see.
Logged
Kingpoleon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,144
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: April 24, 2017, 10:22:14 PM »
Only by probably losing NH, MN, and NV or CO.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.033 seconds with 13 queries.