Chaffetz not running for re-election

[Blue3]

Chaffetz is leaving Congress, choosing not to run for re-election (the guy who ruthlessly investigated Benghazi, said he couldn't look his daughter in the eye if he supported Trump, then supported Trump, and has refused to investigate him).

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/rep-jason-chaffetz-wont-run-for-re-election-in-2018/article/2620649?

[Ronnie]

Does anyone know if Evan McMullin lives in his district?

[MasterJedi]

Awesome, GTFO!

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

meh, who cares.  They'll put a Chaffetz clone in his place if they hold the house.

[Virginiá]

meh, who cares.  They'll put a Chaffetz clone in his place if they hold the house.

Still, it's safe to say there is a special disliking for Chaffetz among Democrats. His leaving is almost like a consolation prize for us.

[SoLongAtlas]

Good, goooood! (Palpatine voice)

[ajc0918]

Lock him up!

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

meh, who cares.  They'll put a Chaffetz clone in his place if they hold the house.

Still, it's safe to say there is a special disliking for Chaffetz among Democrats. His leaving is almost like a consolation prize for us.

True, but the next guy could be worse. 

[Devout Centrist]

meh, who cares.  They'll put a Chaffetz clone in his place if they hold the house.

As long as they don't share his sh*tty hairstyle, I'm okay with that.

[Wiz in Wis]

Does anyone know if Evan McMullin lives in his district?

Twitter says yes.

[The_Doctor]

Some basic work can give us a way to make an informed speculation about why Chaffetz chose to step down from the House.

Initially it looks odd. His district is ruby red. He's the Chairman of Government & Oversight, and he suddenly decides to abandon the House and rules out a Senate bid in 2018, when Orrin Hatch is possibly retiring?

But - we know "jasonforgovernor.com" redirects to his Congressional page. We also have his statement which says: "After long consultation with my family and prayerful consideration, I have decided I will not be a candidate for any office in 2018 ... I may run again for public office, but not in 2018."

If I had to speculate, he's decided to insulate himself from Washington during the Trump years and plans to mount a bid for Governor in 2020. He probably doesn't want to be the whipping boy for Trump and decided that if the three term Governor of Utah bows out in 2020 for a fourth term, he can run to succeed him.

This is particularly relevant as Donald Trump failed to win a majority of the vote in Utah and there is a significant McMullin base (or anti-Trump political base). It also points to Chaffetz believing Trump is not going to be politically popular by 2020, enough to continue carrying water for him. He'd have to carry more water for Trump in the Senate and be linked to the President, which isn't necessarily helpful in Utah's Republican electorate.

Ergo, a little spadework tells us Chaffetz (age 50) is preparing to run for Governor.

[Santander]

Ergo, a little spadework tells us Chaffetz (age 50) is preparing to run for Governor.

I agree.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Some basic work can give us a way to make an informed speculation about why Chaffetz chose to step down from the House.

Initially it looks odd. His district is ruby red. He's the Chairman of Government & Oversight, and he suddenly decides to abandon the House and rules out a Senate bid in 2018, when Orrin Hatch is possibly retiring?

But - we know "jasonforgovernor.com" redirects to his Congressional page. We also have his statement which says: "After long consultation with my family and prayerful consideration, I have decided I will not be a candidate for any office in 2018 ... I may run again for public office, but not in 2018."

If I had to speculate, he's decided to insulate himself from Washington during the Trump years and plans to mount a bid for Governor in 2020. He probably doesn't want to be the whipping boy for Trump and decided that if the three term Governor of Utah bows out in 2020 for a fourth term, he can run to succeed him.

This is particularly relevant as Donald Trump failed to win a majority of the vote in Utah and there is a significant McMullin base (or anti-Trump political base). It also points to Chaffetz believing Trump is not going to be politically popular by 2020, enough to continue carrying water for him. He'd have to carry more water for Trump in the Senate and be linked to the President, which isn't necessarily helpful in Utah's Republican electorate.

Ergo, a little spadework tells us Chaffetz (age 50) is preparing to run for Governor.

This all makes sense, but I don't think leaving  after 2018 and running in 2020 leaves enough time to heal the wounds, since he'd need to enter campaign mode pretty early in 2019.  His best bet is to open an investigation or two against the administration before he leaves or I don't think he stands a chance.

[The_Doctor]

Some basic work can give us a way to make an informed speculation about why Chaffetz chose to step down from the House.

Initially it looks odd. His district is ruby red. He's the Chairman of Government & Oversight, and he suddenly decides to abandon the House and rules out a Senate bid in 2018, when Orrin Hatch is possibly retiring?

But - we know "jasonforgovernor.com" redirects to his Congressional page. We also have his statement which says: "After long consultation with my family and prayerful consideration, I have decided I will not be a candidate for any office in 2018 ... I may run again for public office, but not in 2018."

If I had to speculate, he's decided to insulate himself from Washington during the Trump years and plans to mount a bid for Governor in 2020. He probably doesn't want to be the whipping boy for Trump and decided that if the three term Governor of Utah bows out in 2020 for a fourth term, he can run to succeed him.

This is particularly relevant as Donald Trump failed to win a majority of the vote in Utah and there is a significant McMullin base (or anti-Trump political base). It also points to Chaffetz believing Trump is not going to be politically popular by 2020, enough to continue carrying water for him. He'd have to carry more water for Trump in the Senate and be linked to the President, which isn't necessarily helpful in Utah's Republican electorate.

Ergo, a little spadework tells us Chaffetz (age 50) is preparing to run for Governor.

This all makes sense, but I don't think leaving  after 2018 and running in 2020 leaves enough time to heal the wounds, since he'd need to enter campaign mode pretty early in 2019.  His best bet is to open an investigation or two against the administration before he leaves or I don't think he stands a chance.

He might make a little noise against Trump based on how well Trump is doing in 2018-2019, and start striking an independent pose or two. People have short memories, especially in heavily partisan states like Utah, where they will forgive your apostasies as long as you spend a year or two looking nice.

Chaffetz' problem is in the Republican primaries, where he looks too heavily aligned with Trump. He will want to distance himself from the God-Emperor.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Does anyone know if Evan McMullin lives in his district?

Twitter says yes.

McMullin owes $670,000 from his 2016 campaign. I'd love to see him run, but that's a lot of money.
http://www.sltrib.com/home/5191365-155/mcmullin-owes-nearly-670000-for-his

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Chaffetz's campaign arm registers 2028 websites

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/329597-chaffetzs-campaign-arm-registers-2028-websites

Politicians who play the long game (in this particular way) are almost always massive HPs. Like, run for office because you think there's something about society that could use your skills and values in such-and-such a position to address, not because you're planning out A Career like someone who hopes to make VP of Sales by fifty-five.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Good, goooood! (Palpatine voice)

[Steam Boat Willie]

Good he's always seemed wishy washy.  There might be a lot of Republicans who use the "I want to spend more time with my family" line for next year.  It's their own faults too.  They've campaigned against Obamacare for 7 years and it's been their sole talking point in a lot of instances.  When push comes to shove some Republicans in the freedom caucus think it's smart to just take away health care from 22,000,000 people rather than modifying Obamacare.  Sorry I'm off topic.

[Maxwell]

meh, who cares.  They'll put a Chaffetz clone in his place if they hold the house.

Chaffetz is kind of a unique level of prick for Utah politics. I suspect he'll be replaced by someone ideologically similar but not quite as... weaselly.

[ProudModerate2]

Good riddance.

[Zioneer]

meh, who cares.  They'll put a Chaffetz clone in his place if they hold the house.

Chaffetz is kind of a unique level of prick for Utah politics. I suspect he'll be replaced by someone ideologically similar but not quite as... weaselly.

Yeah, if you check on the thread in Congressional Elections, there's a variety of possible picks. Besides McMullin, my personal favorite would be state senator Deidre Henderson.