Wisconsin 2008

[White Trash]

Obama picked up a lot of counties in northern and central Wisconsin that Kerry and Gore had lost quite handily. He then lost those same counties en masse to Romney in 2012. What happened in this region in 2008 and 2012 that caused this?

[CapoteMonster]

The Financial Crisis.

[White Trash]

The Financial Crisis.

But what made northern Wisconsin so special compared to the rest of the country?

[Gass3268]

The Financial Crisis.

But what made northern Wisconsin so special compared to the rest of the country?

1) The Northwest part of the state was pretty Democratic after the realignment that took place after the Progressive Republican wing fell apart and a large chunk of folks moved to the Democratic Party. Compare the 1934 & 1942 governor races to Carter's win 1976 or Doyle's in 2006. In the past this region was much more Scandinavian than the rest of the state. Not shocking that Obama would win this in one of the biggest Presidential landslides the state has seen in a while. This has dramatically moved away from the Democratic Party during Obama's 8 years.

2) The Northeast part of the state was part of the more Conservative wing of the Wisconsin Republican Party. It is also very German, but also anti-war.  The scares of anti-German sentiments during World War I still linger in the psyche here. As they Iraq War worsened and the Bush administration faltered, many didn't see an issue backing the anti-War candidate. These were probably the first people to flip their support away from Obama.

[Hydera]

The Financial Crisis.

But what made northern Wisconsin so special compared to the rest of the country?

1) The Northwest part of the state was pretty Democratic after the realignment that took place after the Progressive Republican wing fell apart and a large chunk of folks moved to the Democratic Party. Compare the 1934 & 1942 governor races to Carter's win 1976 or Doyle's in 2006. In the past this region was much more Scandinavian than the rest of the state. Not shocking that Obama would win this in one of the biggest Presidential landslides the state has seen in a while. This has dramatically moved away from the Democratic Party during Obama's 8 years.

2) The Northeast part of the state was part of the more Conservative wing of the Wisconsin Republican Party. It is also very German, but also anti-war.  The scares of anti-German sentiments during World War I still linger in the psyche here. As they Iraq War worsened and the Bush administration faltered, many didn't see an issue backing the anti-War candidate. These were probably the first people to flip their support away from Obama.

Also Bill Clinton won a lot of the same counties in 1996. So its not hard to imagine that with a hard swing to the dems in 2008 that Obama would win them.

[Arbitrage1980]

Obama's 13.9% margin in WI in 2008 is larger than even Reagan 1984 and Nixon 1972. Pretty remarkable achievement. I think the combination of WI's leftward tilt on economic issues, financial crisis, and Obama being a favorite son of the Midwest who could resonate with working class whites due to his unique biracial background (he was raised by his white grandparents from Kansas), all played a role.