MT - AL (May 25) Predictions Thread

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Didn't see one of these for MT-AL so I will start it.

This one makes my republican hack based heart beat fast, I have a bad feeling it is going to flip and so here is my prediction as of now:

Quist (D) - 52%
Gianforte (R) - 45%
Wicks (L) - 2%

[Maxwell]

ADJUSTED 4/20:

Gianforte (R) - 51%
Quist (D) - 46%
Wicks (L) - 3%

I agree with others who don't see a win happening here.

[Figueira]

Gianforte 49%
Quist 48%
Wicks 3%

I might change this prediction before the day, though.

[Mike Thick]

Quist: 51%
Gianforte: 46%
Wicks: 3%

[Kamala]

I think, based on KS-04, the libertarian candidate will get less that usual. And I think that helps Gianforte.

[windjammer]

Gianforte +5

[Ronnie]

Gianforte 53%
Quist 44%
Wicks 3%

I don't see it, folks.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This:

50% Quist (D)
46.5% Gianforte (R)
3.5% Wicks (L)

or this:

50% Gianforte (R)
46.5% Quist (D)
3.5% Wicks (L)

Right now I think the former is more likely.

This is the prediction thread, not the "state the various possibilities" thread.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Something in my gut tells me Gianforte is going to flop worse on this one than he did against Bullock.

[mieastwick]

Gianforte 51%
Quist 46%
Wicks 3%

But this is one of the biggest tossups out there, so, really, Quist is an unusually good character for Montana, Gianforte I'm not so sure.

[GoldenMainer]

Quist: 48.5%
Gianforte: 46.5%
Wicks: 5%

Quist seems like a great candidate- relatable, down-to-earth, outsider. I've been following his campaign though and he hasn't been visiting Eastern Montana. I'm not as familiar with the state's politics, but maybe someone from MT can explain if this is smart or not. It doesn't look as populated as western MT but it might be nice to keep the margins down.

[cinyc]

Quist: 48.5%
Gianforte: 46.5%
Wicks: 5%

Quist seems like a great candidate- relatable, down-to-earth, outsider. I've been following his campaign though and he hasn't been visiting Eastern Montana. I'm not as familiar with the state's politics, but maybe someone from MT can explain if this is smart or not. It doesn't look as populated as western MT but it might be nice to keep the margins down.

Define Eastern Montana. 

East of Billings, the state is very sparsely populated.  Western Montana is also generally more Democratic-leaning than Eastern Montana.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Rob Quist (D) - 50%
Greg Gianforte (R) - 45%
Mark Wicks (L) - 3%

[Figueira]

Quist: 48.5%
Gianforte: 46.5%
Wicks: 5%

Quist seems like a great candidate- relatable, down-to-earth, outsider. I've been following his campaign though and he hasn't been visiting Eastern Montana. I'm not as familiar with the state's politics, but maybe someone from MT can explain if this is smart or not. It doesn't look as populated as western MT but it might be nice to keep the margins down.

Define Eastern Montana. 

East of Billings, the state is very sparsely populated.  Western Montana is also generally more Democratic-leaning than Eastern Montana.

I don't think Quist should spend a whole lot of time in Eastern Montana, but it would be better to lose it by, say, 15 points rather than 25 points or whatever.

[cinyc]

Quist: 48.5%
Gianforte: 46.5%
Wicks: 5%

Quist seems like a great candidate- relatable, down-to-earth, outsider. I've been following his campaign though and he hasn't been visiting Eastern Montana. I'm not as familiar with the state's politics, but maybe someone from MT can explain if this is smart or not. It doesn't look as populated as western MT but it might be nice to keep the margins down.

Define Eastern Montana. 

East of Billings, the state is very sparsely populated.  Western Montana is also generally more Democratic-leaning than Eastern Montana.

I don't think Quist should spend a whole lot of time in Eastern Montana, but it would be better to lose it by, say, 15 points rather than 25 points or whatever.

Again, define Eastern Montana.  If it includes Billings or Great Falls, Quist should be spending time there.  But going to Glendive or Miles City or Sidney more than a handful of times probably doesn't make much sense.  Very few people live there, and those who do aren't as likely to vote for a Democrat as those in, say Missoula.

Plus, only Glendive is in its own TV market, which isn't that big (it's the smallest TV market in the country, IIRC), and may or may not even produce its own local TV news these days.  The rest of Eastern Montana is either in the Bismarck, ND market, Rapid City, SD market (1 county, IIRC) (and good luck getting TV coverage for a Montana event in the Rapid City or Bismarck markets) or Billings or Great Falls - and reaching viewers in the Montana markets is as easy as holding a rally in those larger cities.

[Figueira]

Quist: 48.5%
Gianforte: 46.5%
Wicks: 5%

Quist seems like a great candidate- relatable, down-to-earth, outsider. I've been following his campaign though and he hasn't been visiting Eastern Montana. I'm not as familiar with the state's politics, but maybe someone from MT can explain if this is smart or not. It doesn't look as populated as western MT but it might be nice to keep the margins down.

Define Eastern Montana. 

East of Billings, the state is very sparsely populated.  Western Montana is also generally more Democratic-leaning than Eastern Montana.

I don't think Quist should spend a whole lot of time in Eastern Montana, but it would be better to lose it by, say, 15 points rather than 25 points or whatever.

Again, define Eastern Montana.  If it includes Billings or Great Falls, Quist should be spending time there.  But going to Glendive or Miles City or Sidney more than a handful of times probably doesn't make much sense.  Very few people live there, and those who do aren't as likely to vote for a Democrat as those in, say Missoula.

Plus, only Glendive is in its own TV market, which isn't that big (it's the smallest TV market in the country, IIRC), and may or may not even produce its own local TV news these days.  The rest of Eastern Montana is either in the Bismarck, ND market, Rapid City, SD market (1 county, IIRC) (and good luck getting TV coverage for a Montana event in the Rapid City or Bismarck markets) or Billings or Great Falls - and reaching viewers in the Montana markets is as easy as holding a rally in those larger cities.

I meant east of Billings.

[cinyc]

I meant east of Billings.

In theory, I suppose Quist should visit some of the Indian reservations there at least once to gin up Democratic support, and perhaps the larger "cities" of Eastern Montana a time or two.  But spending weeks there wouldn't make much sense.  Few people live east of Billings, so it's not worth as much time.  And it's pretty far from where the real Montana population centers are.  Montana's the fourth largest state in the country, barely behind California.  How often do Californian candidates bother to campaign in Eureka - which, though still small by California standards, probably has a larger population than many of the "cities" of Eastern Montana?

[JGibson]

Quist (D): 50.06%
Gianforte (R): 45.49%
Wicks (L): 4.45%

[Xing]

Gianforte 49%
Quist 47%
Wicks 4%

[The_Doctor]

Why is everyone predicting the Democrat to win here? Trump won the state by a huge margin and I don't see Quist with a strong match with the state's profile. Is there polling I'm unaware of?

[cinyc]

Why is everyone predicting the Democrat to win here? Trump won the state by a huge margin and I don't see Quist with a strong match with the state's profile. Is there polling I'm unaware of?

Gravis had Gianforte up by double digits, but a series of Google Surveys have shown Quist in the lead.  My last Google Survey in March had Quist up by double digits.  

Even though I'm increasingly skeptical of these Google polls, I just put one into the field this afternoon. I expect it to be complete by Friday night or Saturday.

This, ultimately, is a Democratic-leaning website.  That predictions tend to skew pro-Democrat compared to conventional wisdom shouldn't be surprising, especially this early in the cycle with little available polling data.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Why is everyone predicting the Democrat to win here? Trump won the state by a huge margin and I don't see Quist with a strong match with the state's profile. Is there polling I'm unaware of?

Gravis had Gianforte up by double digits, but a series of Google Surveys have shown Quist in the lead.  My last Google Survey in March had Quist up by double digits.  

Even though I'm increasingly skeptical of these Google polls, I just put one into the field this afternoon. I expect it to be complete by Friday night or Saturday.

This, ultimately, is a Democratic-leaning website.  That predictions tend to skew pro-Democrat compared to conventional wisdom shouldn't be surprising, especially this early in the cycle with little available polling data.

Yeah there's really not much data to go off of for this race so far. Consensus seems to be though that Quist is actually a much better fit for the state than Gianforte is, so I disagree with TD on Quist not matching the state profile.

I have no idea which way this race will actually end up breaking, I just have a gut instinct Gianforte is going to blow it for some reason. I wouldn't bet any money on it though.

[peterthlee]

Tilt D
Quist 50-48

[smoltchanov]

Gianforte 49%
Quist 47%
Wicks 4%

Almost exactly as my...

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Quist: 48ish-51ish
Gianforte: 48ish to 44ish
Wicks: 2ish to 7ish