MT - AL (May 25) Predictions Thread

[Kamala]

Rob Quist - 47.6%
Jesse "The Body" Ventura Greg Gianforte - 47.6%
Mark Wicks - 4.6%

[Skye]

Gianforte 48
Quist 47

[TheSaint250]

Quist +0.5

[ajc0918]

Pianoforte 48%
Quist 46%
Wicks 5%

[The_Doctor]

Maintaining the +5 Gianaforte but upping Wick a bit.

Gianaforte: 50%
Quist: 45%
Wicker: 5%

This turned out not too bad.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Lol@the trolls' and Democrats' obsession with calling Gianforte a New Jerseyan. Other than the fact that it's not even true anymore (he moved to Montana 20 years ago) and completely irrelevant, it's like they're talking about nothing else anymore and giving Gianforte the opportunity to cast himself as the outsider in this race. No one cares.

Er, that's the point of the attack, Gianforte is an outsider in the sense that he's not a Montanan. This actually matters a great deal. Unlike, say, Idaho, Montana hasn't had the sort of out of state migration that has meant that a city like Billings is filled with non-natives who dominate the state. Montana is very insular and it's a state with a very particular political culture.

The reason why Democrats focus on public lands is straightforward: it highlights how Gianforte isn't a Montanan. No one from the West fully recognizes how seriously people out here take the idea of public access to streams/lakes. It's seen as an entitlement. Whenever the rich block access - fairly common - it's anathema to basic sentiment of the region.


With this in mind, here is my prediction:

Gianforte 53%
Quist 45%

Quist, as it turns out, is a very flawed candidate. However, I'm looking forward to Gianforte losing like a dog in 2018!

as it turns out, this was a pretty solid prediction! let's hope gianforte loses in 2018 also.

[SoLongAtlas]

Gianforte 49
Quist 43
Wicks 6
Others 2

Even though he doesn't deserve it he still takes it because it's Montana.

So close lol Should have put $ on this. 1 point off for the top two, Wicks off by 0.3% he got 5.7 with 99% in.

[Nyvin]

Gianforte:  50.6%
Quist: 46.6%
Wicks: 3.8%

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Almost had Gianforte's number spot on,  and was only off by 2 for Quist and Wicks each.  

Pretty dang good there *pats back*

[Mr. Smith]

With the bodyslam into account:

Gianforte: 52% 51%
Quist: 45% 48.6%
Wicks: 3% 2.4%

Decent surge for Quist, and a slight fall for Gianforte and Wicks, but not enough to flip the seat.

Doh! I was closer the first time, but I underestimated Wicks.