MT - AL (May 25) Predictions Thread

[The Other Castro]

Quist is a regular performer at a NUDIST RESORT.
http://freebeacon.com/politics/montana-democrat-rob-quist-regular-performer-nudist-resort/

Endorsed.

[publicunofficial]

Quist is a regular performer at a NUDIST RESORT.
http://freebeacon.com/politics/montana-democrat-rob-quist-regular-performer-nudist-resort/

Who the hell reads the Free Beacon. Just go to Breitbart, or hell The Daily Stormer.

[cinyc]

Quist is a regular performer at a NUDIST RESORT.
http://freebeacon.com/politics/montana-democrat-rob-quist-regular-performer-nudist-resort/

It's the FREEBEACON, do you really expect us to believe that?

The Washington Free Beacon cannot lie about things that are a matter of public record.  The article is properly sourced.

How about USA Today?  Do you believe them?  They have the same story:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2017/04/27/montana-democrat-rob-quist-performed-at-a-nudist-resort/100950964/

[Maxwell]

so what? what's wrong with that? Trump bragged about sexual assault and wants to bang his daughter. You social conservatives literally have no room to complain anymore. Rob Quist is a man of the people, and the people includes nudists.

god bless Rob Quist for giving his god given talents to the nudists.

[cinyc]

so what? what's wrong with that? Trump bragged about sexual assault and wants to bang his daughter. You social conservatives literally have no room to complain anymore. Rob Quist is a man of the people, and the people includes nudists.

god bless Rob Quist for giving his god given talents to the nudists.

Like I said in the other thread, it's not clear how this would play in Montana.  It would probably not play well in Utah, but Montana is not Utah.  The Montana Mormon population is much, much lower.

As someone else said, it plays into the hippie narrative about Quist, though.

[LabourJersey]

I think Trump makes it almost impossible for the GOP to make any sexual-related attacks on their opponents in a way that's taken seriously.

Anyone paying attention will point to Trump and say, "well what about HIM?"

I don't know if Quist will win--he could, but if he doesn't it isn't going to be by people shocked by him playing at a nudist resort.

[Maxwell]

Greg Gianforte is a crooked New Jersey Millionah who wants to sell Montana lands, put up a creationist museum in Montana, and make regular Montanans pay for it! My advice - maybe Crooked Greg should mind his own business and go back to New Jersey.

[Classic Conservative]

Greg Gianforte is a crooked New Jersey Millionah who wants to sell Montana lands, put up a creationist museum in Montana, and make regular Montanans pay for it! My advice - maybe Crooked Greg should mind his own business and go back to New Jersey.

Sounds great!

[Maxwell]

Greg Gianforte is a crooked New Jersey Millionah who wants to sell Montana lands, put up a creationist museum in Montana, and make regular Montanans pay for it! My advice - maybe Crooked Greg should mind his own business and go back to New Jersey.

Sounds great!

yes, we are aware you an overly vengeful 13 year old who wants to see the world burn and people suffer, but luckily Montana voters are going to REBUKE your vision of the world.

I mean if I were 13 I'd be mad too - It's a bad age to be.

[smoltchanov]

Greg Gianforte is a crooked New Jersey Millionah who wants to sell Montana lands, put up a creationist museum in Montana, and make regular Montanans pay for it! My advice - maybe Crooked Greg should mind his own business and go back to New Jersey.

Sounds great!

Well, he (Gianforte) is unlikely to be elected in New Jersey for almost any post above dogcatcher, so - it's really great!

[Classic Conservative]

Greg Gianforte is a crooked New Jersey Millionah who wants to sell Montana lands, put up a creationist museum in Montana, and make regular Montanans pay for it! My advice - maybe Crooked Greg should mind his own business and go back to New Jersey.

Sounds great!

yes, we are aware you an overly vengeful 13 year old who wants to see the world burn and people suffer, but luckily Montana voters are going to REBUKE your vision of the world.

I mean if I were 13 I'd be mad too - It's a bad age to be.

How long will I be 13 for?

[MT Treasurer]

Lol@the trolls' and Democrats' obsession with calling Gianforte a New Jerseyan. Other than the fact that it's not even true anymore (he moved to Montana 20 years ago) and completely irrelevant, it's like they're talking about nothing else anymore and giving Gianforte the opportunity to cast himself as the outsider in this race. No one cares.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Why did the predictions thread turn into a flame war

[smoltchanov]

Why did the predictions thread turn into a flame war

When there are too much "activists", and too few analytics- that's inevitable... "Activists" recognize and accept only numbers they like....

[This account no longer in use.]

I'd say Lean Gianforte for now. Likely Gianforte if the controversy regarding Quist playing at a nudist resort sticks, but I highly doubt it will.

[smoltchanov]

Somewhat changing my earlier prediction: Gianforte by 7-10%

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Lol@the trolls' and Democrats' obsession with calling Gianforte a New Jerseyan. Other than the fact that it's not even true anymore (he moved to Montana 20 years ago) and completely irrelevant, it's like they're talking about nothing else anymore and giving Gianforte the opportunity to cast himself as the outsider in this race. No one cares.

Er, that's the point of the attack, Gianforte is an outsider in the sense that he's not a Montanan. This actually matters a great deal. Unlike, say, Idaho, Montana hasn't had the sort of out of state migration that has meant that a city like Billings is filled with non-natives who dominate the state. Montana is very insular and it's a state with a very particular political culture.

The reason why Democrats focus on public lands is straightforward: it highlights how Gianforte isn't a Montanan. No one from the West fully recognizes how seriously people out here take the idea of public access to streams/lakes. It's seen as an entitlement. Whenever the rich block access - fairly common - it's anathema to basic sentiment of the region.


With this in mind, here is my prediction:

Gianforte 53%
Quist 45%

Quist, as it turns out, is a very flawed candidate. However, I'm looking forward to Gianforte losing like a dog in 2018!

[VPH]

Gianforte-52%
Quist-45%
Other-3%

[MT Treasurer]

I will try to post a county map soon, but this is my prediction for now (I probably won't update it before election day):

50.8% Gianforte (R)
46.3% Quist (D)
2.9% Wicks (L)

Eastern Montana (and a strong showing in Yellowstone County) should put Gianforte over the top, but the early returns will show Quist leading and the forum will freak out.

[MT Treasurer]

I will try to post a county map soon, but this is my prediction for now (I probably won't update it before election day):

50.8% Gianforte (R)
46.3% Quist (D)
2.9% Wicks (L)

For what it's worth (probably not much), here is my county map prediction:



Will be funny to see how off this will be on election day. Of course this prediction assumes that Quist does very well in places like Missoula and avoids getting TOTALLY clobbered in rural areas (especially the ones in Western MT). But this is a difficult race to predict...

[The Other Castro]

Still too early to make a worthwhile prediction, there could be some important last minute movement.

[Beet]

My prediction hasn't changed in the last 5 weeks. Unless something significant breaks, these are the fundamentals of the race:

Based on Hillary Clinton's 20 point loss in the state, I still have to say Gianforte is favored, 55-45. That is a 10 point Democratic improvement from last autumn.

[MT Treasurer]

My final prediction

Basically the same as it was back then:

I will try to post a county map soon, but this is my prediction for now (I probably won't update it before election day):

50.8% Gianforte (R)
46.3% Quist (D)
2.9% Wicks (L)

For what it's worth (probably not much), here is my county map prediction:

[The Other Castro]

The only good polling in this race likely comes in the form of hints of private GOP polling, and the rest of what we have is either Gravis or Google, which are both showing insane and contradictory numbers. Given that, I will have no regret in predicting a Quist win:

Rob Quist - 49%
Preg Pianoforte - 47%

[cinyc]

The only good polling in this race likely comes in the form of hints of private GOP polling, and the rest of what we have is either Gravis or Google, which are both showing insane and contradictory numbers. Given that, I will have no regret in predicting a Quist win:

Rob Quist - 49%
Preg Pianoforte - 47%

We also had an Emerson poll in April showing Gianforte up by 15.