What are the most over and under rated demographic trends today?

[DC Al Fine]

Simple question. What are the trends that Atlas or talking heads over value? Which ones are the dark horses that are important, but no one is talking about?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Overrated
-The age-gap.  For one, Trump cut significantly into it in 2016, and the Senate races had even smaller ones (or none).  Secondly, while there are more conservative and more liberal age cohorts, all do get somewhat more Republican as they age.

Underrated
-The absolute Democratic collapse with Christians (both evangelicals and Catholics), largely due to family values and abortion.  If the Republicans can extend this to religious Hispanics and blacks, the Democrats will have to become socially conservative or be irrelevant for good.

[ajc0918]

Overrated
-The age-gap.  For one, Trump cut significantly into it in 2016, and the Senate races had even smaller ones (or none).  Secondly, while there are more conservative and more liberal age cohorts, all do get somewhat more Republican as they age.

Underrated
-The absolute Democratic collapse with Christians (both evangelicals and Catholics), largely due to family values and abortion.  If the Republicans can extend this to religious Hispanics and blacks, the Democrats will have to become socially conservative or be irrelevant for good.

I know you probably want to believe this but no, social conservatism is dying.

[Gass3268]

Overrated
-The age-gap.  For one, Trump cut significantly into it in 2016, and the Senate races had even smaller ones (or none).  Secondly, while there are more conservative and more liberal age cohorts, all do get somewhat more Republican as they age.

Underrated
-The absolute Democratic collapse with Christians (both evangelicals and Catholics), largely due to family values and abortion.  If the Republicans can extend this to religious Hispanics and blacks, the Democrats will have to become socially conservative or be irrelevant for good.

I know you probably want to believe this but no, social conservatism is dying.

Yeah, social conservatism is at its lowest point in decades.

[heatcharger]

Overrated
-The age-gap.  For one, Trump cut significantly into it in 2016, and the Senate races had even smaller ones (or none).  Secondly, while there are more conservative and more liberal age cohorts, all do get somewhat more Republican as they age.

Underrated
-The absolute Democratic collapse with Christians (both evangelicals and Catholics), largely due to family values and abortion.  If the Republicans can extend this to religious Hispanics and blacks, the Democrats will have to become socially conservative or be irrelevant for good.

I know you probably want to believe this but no, social conservatism is dying.

Yeah, social conservatism is at its lowest point in decades.

I think one reason the mostly secular region of rural New England that swung heavily to Trump did so in part because they believed Trump wasn't a hardline Evangelical Republican. It's just my theory.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Overrated
-The age-gap.  For one, Trump cut significantly into it in 2016, and the Senate races had even smaller ones (or none).  Secondly, while there are more conservative and more liberal age cohorts, all do get somewhat more Republican as they age.

Underrated
-The absolute Democratic collapse with Christians (both evangelicals and Catholics), largely due to family values and abortion. If the Republicans can extend this to religious Hispanics and blacks, the Democrats will have to become socially conservative or be irrelevant for good.

He hasn't cut into it significantly enough to change the fact that the Millenials are still an overwhelmingly Democratic voting generation. Also, that "people get more conservative as they age" myth is bunk, multiple studies have demonstrated that the vast majority of people maintain the political identity they developed in their early adulthood. Granted, this is prone to more change during realignments, but the overwhelming consensus is that Democrats will be the ones reaping the windfall of the next realignment as the Reagan coalition collapses.

Evangelicals have been an overwhelmingly Republican voting bloc for the past three decades, and their political influence is past its peak. White Catholics, while still a Republican leaning bloc, have by no means abandoned the Democratic Party. White Democratic Catholics aren't at all a rarity, but what has been a far more noteworthy demographic trend regarding White Catholics is actually how quickly their affiliation numbers have atrophied due to religious switching, mostly to unaffiliated. It's also worth noting that the largest swings towards Trump among White Christians in the past election were among Christians who were the least religious, i.e., possessed low levels of religiosity (low church attendance, infrequent prayer, little involvement with religious groups and activities, etc.) I don't think they are all of the sudden attracted to the family values shtick, if anything Trump was likely successful specifically because he was such an inadequate proponent for traditional conservative Christian orthodoxy.

Republicans have done nothing to make inroads with minorities and Donald Trump is doubling down on the most alienating rhetoric possible. Blacks and Hispanics continue to vote overwhelmingly Democratic, no small thanks to the fact that the Republicans pretend that prominent issues facing their communities don't exist. Until the Republicans change their approach with how they engage with these communities, no amount of preaching for social conservatism is going to bring more of them on board.

Which it shouldn't, because social conservatism is at its absolute nadir and its not rebounding anytime soon. I know you've cited studies regarding Generation Z being more churched than Millenails, but cherry picking a couple of data points that fit your preconceived biases does not a trend make. The studies conducted regarding social identification of Generation Z are wildly variable in their conclusions, indicating them simultaneously being the most conservative, most liberal, most churched, and most unchurched generation. This is likely in no small part due to the fact that the vast majority of Generation Z isn't out of high school yet, and thus haven't had time to formulate their own demographic and identity signals independent of their family background yet. We're probably around 5-10 years away from a reliable dataset regarding what generation Z actually thinks regarding politics and religion.

[Brittain33]

Underrated:
Rising share of population that is non-religious or functionally non-religious. Our political culture does not incorporate this view yet but the numbers are getting quite high, especially among the young.

Overrated:
What assumption wasn't turned over by Trump's success in the primaries and general in 2016?

[Torie]

Underrated:
Rising share of population that is non-religious or functionally non-religious. Our political culture does not incorporate this view yet but the numbers are getting quite high, especially among the young.

Adding to the mix, I read somewhere that 20% of millennials identify as LGBTQ. We're taking over!

[RI]

Underrated:
Rising share of population that is non-religious or functionally non-religious. Our political culture does not incorporate this view yet but the numbers are getting quite high, especially among the young.

Most of such people were already thoroughly secular, now it's just being formalized.

[Brittain33]

Underrated:
Rising share of population that is non-religious or functionally non-religious. Our political culture does not incorporate this view yet but the numbers are getting quite high, especially among the young.

Most of such people were already thoroughly secular, now it's just being formalized.

The study I'm thinking of dives into specifics that make a compelling case.

http://www.pewforum.org/2015/11/03/u-s-public-becoming-less-religious/

[Brittain33]

Reading the above chart, 89% of Americans claiming they still believe in God is higher than I remembered. I don't know how meaningful it is, but as a headline number it would explain why this trend isn't being reported.

Being Jewish, I have a front row seat to one of the groups where this trend is most advanced.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Another underrated one:

Liberal whites do not really have many kids anymore and tend not to marry until very late in life, while conservative whites are still having a lot of babies.

[publicunofficial]

Another underrated one:

Liberal whites do not really have many kids anymore and tend not to marry until very late in life, while conservative whites are still having a lot of babies.

Babies that they then kick out of the house at age 14 when they come out of the closet.

[Nyvin]

Looking at the national precinct maps,  I really think 2016 is the year that might begin the phase of Republicans "self-packing" into rural areas of the country, while the suburbs move to the Democrats.   At least the suburbs that are fast growing ones.   

There aren't many small town/rural places left in the country where Dems have much support, except minority heavy areas and Vermont.   

Counterwise, there isn't much left of the Mark Kirk-type Republicans that did well in the suburbs of big cities.

[Dr. Arch]

Overrated
-The age-gap.  For one, Trump cut significantly into it in 2016, and the Senate races had even smaller ones (or none).  Secondly, while there are more conservative and more liberal age cohorts, all do get somewhat more Republican as they age.

Underrated
-The absolute Democratic collapse with Christians (both evangelicals and Catholics), largely due to family values and abortion.  If the Republicans can extend this to religious Hispanics and blacks, the Democrats will have to become socially conservative or be irrelevant for good.

LOL. Yeah, Trump, "grab them by the pussy," "if she weren't my daughter" ((family values)) GOP President. That party? Yeah, you lost that mirage the moment your party even considered nominating him.

[Skill and Chance]

Another underrated one:

Liberal whites do not really have many kids anymore and tend not to marry until very late in life, while conservative whites are still having a lot of babies.

This one deserves a lot more attention than it's getting.  Although I do suspect it's easier to pass all your political values on to an only child than to all 4 of your children at once.  The large families probably have a lot more who switch sides when they come of age.

The very most underrated are probably the 2012 major party-->2016 Johnson voters.  They could singlehandedly give either side a 2008 sized win next time around even if nothing else changed and yet I haven't seen a single news article profiling them.  They shouldn't be assumed to be conservative either given what was in Johnson's platform this time around.

[Virginiá]

Overrated
-The age-gap.  For one, Trump cut significantly into it in 2016, and the Senate races had even smaller ones (or none).  Secondly, while there are more conservative and more liberal age cohorts, all do get somewhat more Republican as they age.

I'd say this aspect is underrated with many people. What you stated, getting more Republican as they age, is a myth. How do you define 'somewhat' more Republican? Even if what you were saying is true, what does it even mean? Are you talking about Millennials voting instead of 36% for a Republican president, they'll vote 40% in 20-30 years? When a party has such a massive advantage with a certain generation of voters, it's not that unreasonable to assume there will be some erosion with support with age, but if you think there will be a massive shift just based on time alone, I'd say you are dead wrong. So far we have young gen'xers entering middle age that still seem to be voting as they did decades ago.

Conservatives who base their ideas on this should also consider what happens if they are wrong, and those young people they ignored for so many years grow up and still reject the Republican Party at similar numbers.

[Skill and Chance]

Overrated
-The age-gap.  For one, Trump cut significantly into it in 2016, and the Senate races had even smaller ones (or none).  Secondly, while there are more conservative and more liberal age cohorts, all do get somewhat more Republican as they age.

I'd say this aspect is underrated with many people. What you stated, getting more Republican as they age, is a myth. How do you define 'somewhat' more Republican? Even if what you were saying is true, what does it even mean? Are you talking about Millennials voting instead of 36% for a Republican president, they'll vote 40% in 20-30 years? When a party has such a massive advantage with a certain generation of voters, it's not that unreasonable to assume there will be some erosion with support with age, but if you think there will be a massive shift just based on time alone, I'd say you are dead wrong. So far we have young gen'xers entering middle age that still seem to be voting as they did decades ago.

Conservatives who base their ideas on this should also consider what happens if they are wrong, and those young people they ignored for so many years grow up and still reject the Republican Party at similar numbers.

Yes, the age gap is underrated as there is solid historical evidence that it matters.  The gaps between demographic groups are overrated as there is some historical evidence that they are a one-time thing, particularly when the 1st candidate of a minority group runs.

[MT Treasurer]

Not a demographic trend, but I really think the "high turnout always benefits Democrats" argument is a myth.

Overrated is the idea that Republicans could win over more minority voters through social conservatism. But I definitely do think that a lot of Democrats underestimate how many voters vote against their party because of the abortion issue.

[hopper]

Overrated
-The age-gap.  For one, Trump cut significantly into it in 2016, and the Senate races had even smaller ones (or none).  Secondly, while there are more conservative and more liberal age cohorts, all do get somewhat more Republican as they age.

Underrated
-The absolute Democratic collapse with Christians (both evangelicals and Catholics), largely due to family values and abortion.  If the Republicans can extend this to religious Hispanics and blacks, the Democrats will have to become socially conservative or be irrelevant for good.

LOL. Yeah, Trump, "grab them by the pussy," "if she weren't my daughter" ((family values)) GOP President. That party? Yeah, you lost that mirage the moment your party even considered nominating him.

Trump isn't gonna be President forever though.

[hopper]

Overrated
-The age-gap.  For one, Trump cut significantly into it in 2016, and the Senate races had even smaller ones (or none).  Secondly, while there are more conservative and more liberal age cohorts, all do get somewhat more Republican as they age.

Underrated
-The absolute Democratic collapse with Christians (both evangelicals and Catholics), largely due to family values and abortion.  If the Republicans can extend this to religious Hispanics and blacks, the Democrats will have to become socially conservative or be irrelevant for good.

I know you probably want to believe this but no, social conservatism is dying.

I don't think Social Conservatism is dying at all in the "The South" though.

[hopper]

Another underrated one:

Liberal whites do not really have many kids anymore and tend not to marry until very late in life, while conservative whites are still having a lot of babies.

Babies that they then kick out of the house at age 14 when they come out of the closet.

Maybe 20 years ago that was the case but not today except if you live in "The South".

[hopper]

Another underrated one:

Liberal whites do not really have many kids anymore and tend not to marry until very late in life, while conservative whites are still having a lot of babies.

I think the only High Birth Rate demographic is Foreign Born-Hispanic Women currently. I don't think Non-Hispanic White Women Republicans are having any more or any less babies than Non-Hispanic White Democrat Women.

[mieastwick]

Another underrated one:

Liberal whites do not really have many kids anymore and tend not to marry until very late in life, while conservative whites are still having a lot of babies.

I think the only High Birth Rate demographic is Foreign Born-Hispanic Women currently. I don't think Non-Hispanic White Women Republicans are having any more or any less babies than Non-Hispanic White Democrat Women.

Your thoughts are wrong; Republican non-Hispanic White women certainly are having more babies than non-Hispanic White Democratic ones. The marriage gap was the best predictor of how each state voted in 2012. Look at Vermont's total fertility rate. Now look at North Dakota's, or even Tennessee's.

[Nyvin]

Another underrated one:

Liberal whites do not really have many kids anymore and tend not to marry until very late in life, while conservative whites are still having a lot of babies.

I think the only High Birth Rate demographic is Foreign Born-Hispanic Women currently. I don't think Non-Hispanic White Women Republicans are having any more or any less babies than Non-Hispanic White Democrat Women.

Your thoughts are wrong; Republican non-Hispanic White women certainly are having more babies than non-Hispanic White Democratic ones. The marriage gap was the best predictor of how each state voted in 2012. Look at Vermont's total fertility rate. Now look at North Dakota's, or even Tennessee's.

This doesn't really affect anything though.   It's a quite meaningless statistic,  there's a reason why data analyst don't look at it much.